I would add even more caution on the CT. Lots of those reservations are "want to have" discretionary spends. I find the expansion of Energy sales more hopeful for profit, if it is expanding as quickly as some posted also the Semi deliveries (say $400k each?) will help.
Just noise from the field but we are heavily dependent on business activity and we've been informed of deep cutbacks in orders from our mills, price cuts have started and production quotas, some extreme will be implemented in January. Largest buyer went under 4 weeks ago, 2300 lost jobs directly and it will close 10 large sawmills indirectly. At least in construction things seem to be looking very bleak for 2023. At the same time all the builders new equipment and truck fleets that are financed have become more expensive due to rapidly rising finance charges. They'll wrap up projects this winter but then the summer looks to be brutal and we'll see lots of used equipment hit the auction block. Anecdotal info from the field. I think
@Mengy is spot on regarding the possible need to temper expectations on vehicle demand and pricing.
To me the Semi and energy products that are business friendly ie have a positive ROI are the products that will differentiate Tesla in 2023 and maybe 2024. The semi production of 50000 units at $400000 would deliver $20B in 2024 if they can do it.
I think you'll see price compression on the megapacks next year, lots of competition coming but if they can even run that assembly plant at half capacity that would be great.