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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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CT has demand absurdly far ahead of what Tesla could possibly produce in 2023. It would be a great success if Tesla could make 100k of them next year and they would all sell easily to a fraction of the 1M+ people waiting in line.
Tesla needs to be in hard-core ramp-up mode for CT now. Every day they can't sell CT's is tons of money lost. I hope 4680's aren't slowing down or blocking CT production ramping.
 
It turns out a chunk of car buyers are whiny cry babies about wheels. Make the smaller car and put 15" aeros on stock (16" aeros if you must) and it'll push any "the wheels are too small" cry babies over to 3 or Y for 18", 19", or 20" wheels.
You laugh, but the Model 3 and to a large extent the Model Y were built valuing form over function to a large degree.

Cybertruck was designed to put function (and manufacturability) before form.

I suspect the vehicle which is penned to be the RoboTaxi will similarly put function before form. If smaller tires offer better range, there is a good chance it’ll have smaller tires. Not because of any marketing lever they are trying to push, but because the goal is indeed to keep costs down and deliver the best car possible.

This by itself might create a natural differentiation between the Model Y and the new car since as you suggest, some people may be willing to pay a premium to buy a more traditional looking vehicle.
 
You laugh, but the Model 3 and to a large extent the Model Y were built valuing form over function to a large degree.

Cybertruck was designed to put function (and manufacturability) before form.
Highly disagree on the 3/Y. They are the epitome of function over form. Form over function as an overarching design principal is none other than the X.
 
I view anything from iea with extreme skepticism, they have missed every trend in renewables.

Here is another way to look at this... Lathrop is only using a fraction of the capacity of the Chinese company cell production. They are one company, big but 1. The cells are going somewhere.
Megapacks are also being manufactured in GigaNevada too right?
 
But @Gigapress , isn't this an extremely optimistic outlook?

If we do go into a deep recession in 2023, I'm talking about the possibility the market and economy get even worse than they are today, then isn't it reasonable to assume this "demand problem" could form very quickly? Auto sales always take a serious hit in big recessions, most large expenditures like them do. This isn't to say people won't still want to buy Teslas, but in difficult financial times people do tighten their belts, and let's be honest the majority of Tesla's revenue is still from auto sales, expensive high end auto sales at that.

To be clear, I'm not saying we have a demand problem today, but given the dour outlook for 2023 right now I don't think it's unreasonable for someone like Troy to be concerned about potential demand problems for next year. As investors we need to be very aware this could materialize very quickly if things go even further south, which they likely will yet.

Long term Tesla will be fine, but I think we need to be open to some possible murky waters in 2023. Things might not go as smoothly as we'd like them to.
I totally agree with you, Mengy. With macros still pointing downwards through at least 2nd half of 2023, that simply means TSLA will continue to go down due to active fund selling pressure from SPX/SPY and QQQ. The entire world is getting hurt by Jay Powell and now Christine LaGarde with rake hikes increasing and staying higher for longer. I don't see how this doesn't reduce demand for Tesla cars next year (until Tesla is secretly already ramping up Model 2 production as we type).
 
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My random number generator is telling me that we might see enough disappointment on P&D (probably due to beating expectations but not by enough :rolleyes: ) to mark the bottom before earnings comes in and surprises everyone along with positive macro news on the rate side.

If I wasn't 170% sure (rounded to nearest 10) that I'm buying the Cybertruck in the next 6 months I'd be upgrading my model 3 and grabbing that 7500 discount. Hard to imagine others aren't thinking the same.

When we come back it will be violent IMO.
 
Jeeze. Talk about irrational pessimism from Wall Street. You'd think there were an asteroid headed for earth's destruction in two weeks.
Nothing irrational about Wall Street's pessimism - it's self-perpetuating and self-propagating, just like increasing weekly buys of TSLA puts continues to force our TSLA share price down. There is no optimism for macro economic conditions until possibly the 2nd half of 2023. Until then, we need to buckle up. In the long term I think we'll be fine and even in a better position since other auto manufacturers will not survive the upcoming global recession.
 
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So, just buy stock. If you must use margin, use a little, not a lot unless you make enough money to fix your situation and most definitely don't combine leverage with margin. Just buy lottery tickets instead if you want to piss it all away.
Oh man, I am so sorry to hear about your situation. I’m down a bunch too, but I’ve avoided margin so have only “LOST” a small percentage permanently due to some short term options bets.

Your story does make me wonder if some of this is self induced collectively. I’ve seen so so many posts talking about people pulling money out of the couch and people using margin. As the SP plummeted, I have to wonder if it set off a chain reaction of margin calls pulling the price down over and over again as people were forced to sell at a loss. Each time Tesla hit a lower price point, more margin calls came in and more shares had to be liquidated.

I’ve seen it here with a few posters. Tesla has millions of retail investors with billions invested.
 
Even with the $7,500 discount, Model Y LR is 10% higher than Q4 2021.
Tesla knows how to manage pricing well.

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If Tesla could only manage marketing well also. If we did a real education to the average car consumer, sales would increase. Again, this is why we need channels of communication that aren't propagating false ICE narratives through mainstream media and social media. In the end, maybe the Blue Bird may help all of us TSLA shareholders by simply providing a channel for honest communication of the value, benefits, ROI, and TCO cost savings of buying a Tesla instead of an ICE car.