Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thesmokingman]

Keep in mind @cliff harris that there are probably a lot of newer, retail buyers who got in to TSLA at $400, $350, $300, or heck, even at $200 that are severely underwater right now and may need the cash for immediate bills, medical emergencies, etc. Those of us who have owned 10+ years can sweat some more downside, but not so much for newer TSLA investors. I feel for them and their pain is even much greater than ours.

Nutty, buying at 400... it ain't 2020 anymore that's for sure.

 

[gtrplyr1]

I think the end of quarter numbers will be light from what most analysts are predicting, even the bullish ones. I do think Tesla might do well with gross margins as Elon has said that he sees the recent inflation numbers coming down ... but that still leaves us with almost a month of negative news stories that could drive this price down sub $100 ..... hard to believe. This is, by far, the worst downturn I've experienced in any stock and Ive been in the market for almost 30 years. I thought it was bad when I held AAPL and watched it go down 50% for about a year before recovering to new highs but this one is tougher.

1) Down almost 70% from highs
2) Management at Tesla is questionable at this point (That's really not debatable, Elon's a wildcard)

When I held AAPL , I was as confident as could be and it turned out fine .... I wish I could say the same about TSLA but this one has me really shaken.

I'm still way up from my initial investment but I've lost several fortunes in the last 12-16 months.

Hope everyone is hanging in there .....

 

[Chenkers]

If we drop as low as $123.81 today it will trigger the 10% uptick rule. So expect to see todays bottom reached any moment now.

Otherwise Friday could be fireworks.

Edit: $123.91 reached a few moments ago and then we bounced.

 

[Ogre]

Highly disagree on the 3/Y. They are the epitome of function over form. Form over function as an overarching design principal is none other than the X.

Aside from aesthetics, there is no reason the Model 3 or the Model Y should look so much like a traditional ICE vehicle. Take away the requirement to look like a “normal” car, and whatever Tesla released as a 4 person people mover would have looked significantly different from what the Model 3 is.

Obviously the X took things a notch worse. I think the Cybertruck is the result of the manufacturing frustrations the Model X and the Model 3 brought to the table. Musk was frustrated with the constraints of traditional auto design and tossed it all in the bin and designed the CT to ensure easier manufacturing. I strongly suspect Robotaxi/ Model Next will be of a similar radical nature designed to reduce COGS and scale quickly while providing all of the essentials a car needs to deliver… but without the constraints of a traditional form.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If we drop as low as $123.81 today it will trigger the 10% uptick rule. So expect to see todays bottom reached any moment now.

Otherwise Friday could be fireworks.

We literally hit 123.91......you gotta be kidding me. Just hit 10% and have this be over.

 

[thesmokingman]

Aside from aesthetics, there is no reason the Model 3 or the Model Y should look so much like a traditional ICE vehicle. Take away the requirement to look like a “normal” car, and whatever Tesla released as a 4 person people mover would have looked significantly different from what the Model 3 is.

Obviously the X took things a notch worse. I think the Cybertruck is the result of the manufacturing frustrations the Model X and the Model 3 brought to the table. Musk was frustrated with the constraints of traditional auto design and tossed it all in the bin and designed the CT to ensure easier manufacturing. I strongly suspect Robotaxi/ Model Next will be of a similar radical nature designed to reduce COGS and scale quickly while providing all of the essentials a car needs to deliver… but without the constraints of a traditional form.

That's like just yore opinion dude. And CT is form over function, the wedge shape is an arbitrarily decision. The shape of the 3/Y is a result of wind tunnel and CFD.

 

[Ogre]

Not smaller tires, smaller wheels.

You seem to be missing my point or ignoring it to nit pick a detail.

I think Tesla will do whatever it takes to make the vehicle cheap and efficient. I could care less about the exact details, as you say they are off in the weeds.

 

[Gray Man]

Hope Fed has seen enough blood on the streets

No, they haven't. Remember, the Fed isn't looking at the stock market as their main concern. The stock market =/= the economy in the short and medium term. Just like TSLA performance =/= Tesla performance in the short and medium term.

Their main goals are total employment and controlling inflation. Traditional economic thinking is that ~5% unemployment is "total employment". Unemployment under this mark is typically thought as overheating and leading to inflation.

I'm not saying that is correct, but it's pretty much canon in traditional economics.

Our current unemployment situation, though, is more likely linked to demographics. Far more people are currently retiring than entering the workforce. It's impacted my company hugely over the last several years. In a 6,000 person company, something like ~4000 of the employees have been on board less than 5 years... and we're not new. This place has been going since the 1950s.... This different sort of tight labor market may call for different economic thinking, but that's not the Fed's strong suit.

 

[azred]

I have been out of TSLA for a couple years. Obviously that makes me look very foolish on hindsight. On the other hand I tripled my money and sleep very well these days.

I have never forgotten the many televised interviews during the dot.com crash. Young working folks being interviewed and saying they couldn’t bail out because their only hope for a decent retirement someday was a rebound. Sadly, they found out that what goes down can keep going down.

I know many of you can afford the down cycles but when I read the post this morning from my fellow Arizonan living in a small apartment while his dreams of home ownership rest on TSLA, I think back to those dot.com believers.

I have two Teslas and believe in the company’s future though it concerns me that so much of the brand and all of the PR rests in one individual who seems a bit unhinged these days.

 

[juanmedina]

we hit -10%

 

[mongo]

Meanwhile in Norway, Model Y just passed the Beetle for highest annual sales of any car every. A record it held for 50+ years.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605976273779654659

 

[Budding]

Uptick rule triggered but might not matter if you know who is dumping shares

 

[thesmokingman]

we hit -10%

It's insane but its not any worse than the rest of the market. lol that sounds insane to write too just before xmas.

 

[trayloader]

we hit -10%

That’s going too fast today. Big whale is selling.

 

[ElectricIAC]

That’s going too fast today. Big whale is selling.

Leo?

 

[Opus BC fan]

 

[Cal1]

Yeah who cares abort short term stock prices! Elon certainly doesn’t and therefore neither should you.

 

[verystandard]

We literally hit 123.91......you gotta be kidding me. Just hit 10% and have this be over.

Today is the day of capitulation, it smells like it and continue nose dive. Seems like it is just kept going, pure insane

 

[Big Time]

-11%
What the fudge

 

[thesmokingman]