Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

I don’t expect any Tesla news before the end of the year that would give hope for a rally.

All it takes is a well-timed analyst call.

It works both ways .... thats what makes TSLA so volatile.

 

[WolfHero]

Update for Tesla's sales in Taiwan. As of December 20th, there are 10,498 delivery for the year so far and becomes the first EV brand that broke 10k/year delivery figure. As for the rate of growth, it was 5,632 in 2021 and 5819 in 2020.

For the month of December as of 20th, total delivery is 2,996, 2764 of those are Model Y.

Source: 特斯拉創一新紀錄！成全台首家年銷量破萬電動車品牌 - 自由電子報汽車頻道

 

[Artful Dodger]

Until the Saudis tire of their joke?

Indeed, lcid was saved from a big intraday dump recently (possibly Saudi PIF stepping in the last 20 min of the session on Dec 9, 2022)

I expect this will continue until the price of oil goes down, or until Tesla is no longer viewed as a threat to big carbon. Oh...

TL;dr I expect this will continue...

Cheers! Joyeux Noël, and Feliz Navidad!

 

[Cherry Wine]

So assuming that world is not ending tomorrow and TSLA will not become penny stock in foreseeable future ( both entirely believable potential outcomes if you spend more than 2 minutes on a certain social media platform) what could possibly happen based on few select prior TSLA drawdowns

In early 2016 TSLA fell -42% over 7 weeks then V shaped rally of +91% over next 8 weeks

In early 2020 TsLA fell -63.8% over 7 weeks then initial rebound of 2.48X off lows over next 6 weeks although it continued to march much higher for rest of 2020

In both cases upper weekly bollinger was hit before pullback


Currently TSLA so far drop is - 61.4% over 14 weeks and upper weekly bollinger sits at $335.71 which is 2.77X $121 (assuming $121 as bottom)

Whatever happens it will not be boring

I remember when there was some speculation on this board that S&P inclusion would reduce the volatility in TSLA. That did not age well.

 

[Ogre]

Indeed, lcid was saved from a big intraday dump recently (possibly Saudi PIF stepping in the last 20 min of the session on Dec 9, 2022)

View attachment 889086

I expect this will continue until the price of oil goes down, or until Tesla is no longer viewed as a threat to big carbon. Oh...

TL;dr I expect this will continue...

Cheers! Joyeux Noël, and Feliz Navidad!

What is fascinating is that nobody sees this profitability wall as the “moat” it really is. Startups can’t crack it, legacy auto is talking about breaking even in 3 years with lower margins going forward and their “ICE profits” propping up their EV business until they improve profitability.

What happens if (when IMO) ICE profits dry up quicker than EV profits arrive? Is there some kind of bridge loan from the governments (US, South Korea, Germany, plus who whatever government wants to prop up Stellantis)?

People (off this board) get upset when I suggest Ford and GM are going to struggle to survive, but eventually ICE production ceases to be profitable, and it’s not goign to be 2035.

 

[StealthP3D]

I remember when there was some speculation on this board that S&P inclusion would reduce the volatility in TSLA. That did not age well.

I never understood why anyone believed that tall tale to begin with. I said S&P inclusion might even make it more volatile.

 

[thesmokingman]

What is fascinating is that nobody sees this profitability wall as the “moat” it really is. Startups can’t crack it, legacy auto is talking about breaking even in 3 years with lower margins going forward and their “ICE profits” propping up their EV business until they improve profitability.

What happens if (when IMO) ICE profits dry up quicker than EV profits arrive? Is there some kind of bridge loan from the governments (US, South Korea, Germany, plus who whatever government wants to prop up Stellantis)?

People (off this board) get upset when I suggest Ford and GM are going to struggle to survive, but eventually ICE production ceases to be profitable, and it’s not goign to be 2035.

It's funny there was an article about Caddy in SAE mag, which Munro then made a video about. Anyways the interesting bit is that GM is researching castings finally, but they aren't quite sure just yet so they are sticking with sand casting which is subpar (weaker/heavier/larger) and is only practical in low volumes. The hilarious part to me is that they are just thinking about it now?

 

[dhanson865]

 

[thesmokingman]

Oh that's gonna piss off a lot of !@#$%s...

 

[dhanson865]

Reply from a Ford employee on reddit

1st, our CTO is Doug Field who came from Tesla… in September 2022…(you know, the driver of the Model Y/3).
2nd, this is not an approved comment from actual Ford engineers as an FYI.
Dont read into this as it holds little to no weight without any announcements through official channels.
Lastly, Ford has no interest in pursuing anything beyond level 3 autonomy.

 

[Ogre]

It's funny there was an article about Caddy in SAE mag, which Munro then made a video about. Anyways the interesting bit is that GM is researching castings finally, but they aren't quite sure just yet so they are sticking with sand casting which is subpar (weaker/heavier/larger) and is only practical in low volumes. The hilarious part to me is that they are just thinking about it now?

Maybe GM is prepping itself for the awkward transition from being a high volume ICE vehicle manufacturer to a very low volume EV manufacturer.

If you are only producing a 10 a week, a gigapress is overkill.

 

[powertoold]

Reply from a Ford employee on reddit



View attachment 889112

Doug Field also came from the Apple Car program, where he worked for 3 years.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dougfield

 

[EVWatcher]

Reply from a Ford employee on reddit



View attachment 889112

Is Scoble considered an informed personality in the autonomy space? I had never heard of him until some of the twitter spaces I listened in on the other day but I thought he sounded a bit like my grandparents talking about programming a vcr.

 

[thesmokingman]

Maybe GM is prepping itself for the awkward transition from being a high volume ICE vehicle manufacturer to a very low volume EV manufacturer.

If you are only producing a 10 a week, a gigapress is overkill.

Dude, zinger nearly spilled my beer over that one.

 

[thesmokingman]

Reply from a Ford employee on reddit



View attachment 889112

Holy shart, walk it baaaacccckkkkkk!

 

[Ogre]

Dude, zinger nearly spilled my beer over that one.

The Cadillac Munro is talking about is their hand-built 5/ week $350k Celestiq.

The high end seems like the only way they can make a profit on EVs. Not sure who is going to scoop up these overpriced beasts but GM can surely make a profit selling these?

 

[Xepa777]

Is Scoble considered an informed personality in the autonomy space? I had never heard of him until some of the twitter spaces I listened in on the other day but I thought he sounded a bit like my grandparents talking about programming a vcr.

He’s a well regarded and OG investor in Silicon Valley. Semi celebrity investor actually. I’m a YCombinator alum so yah we have all heard of him.

 

[Alphacrux]

Well, I hope this is relevant to the stock - it has bearing on how the incentives are moving inventory.
I had an order for a Model Y in since July 28th this year. It got put on hold until Jan 1 by Tesla when I failed to proceed to arrange for delivery when notified of it's availability this year (a few months earlier than planned)

Due to the incentives I decided to try to get my car, any car, this year. I was advised to just order a car that was listed in inventory as the likelihood of getting my order in queue and delivered in time was slim to nil. I planned to cancel my original order once another car was secured.

It is frustrating dealing with text messages as the sole way to communicate with sales staff, primarily because I was communicating with 3 or 4 people, none of whom identified themselves when posting a question to me. My situation was unique, I had an original order now on hold but not closed out, and cars in 2 locations in the Bay Area that I was willing/attempting to take but it was unclear if I had captured either one going by the website and low level sales people who were frankly confused and confusing the situation.

I got a call today from an obviously elevated position Rep who could both access the data and knew the correct answers. I had been stuck with completing the required documents in the App/Website for either car, as I was taking delivery in CA but residence, insurance and registration will be in WA. The system couldn't handle any of that and it was getting very Medieval gymkhana of an effort to get home with a car. But there is competency at higher levels in Tesla, and all is smooth going at this point.

To sum up; If you weren't aware, the incentives sparked a bonfire of buying, there are NO Teslas available in the US at this point.
Except for one Model Y at Sunnyvale if you move very quickly tomorrow morning ;-).

I’m curious how many ppl are taking advantage of this end of year incentive because they are over the income limits for the 2023 incentives.

 

[SO16]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1607630111322378240

 

[NicoV]

Is Scoble considered an informed personality in the autonomy space? I had never heard of him until some of the twitter spaces I listened in on the other day but I thought he sounded a bit like my grandparents talking about programming a vcr.

No. Robert Scoble got famous 20 years ago for a couple of years when he worked for Microsoft (as some kind of marketing/technical evangelist type). After he left Microsoft he was barely heard of again.