Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

Earnings Call you say, checks watch... oh yes, another 5 weeks of information vacuum and FUD running riot...

That is far better than having a professional PR dept. think of the costs to you the shareholders.

 

[mrmage]

It would be nice if Charlie Munger's recent admiration for Tesla/Elon, which coincides with TSLA's PE ratio approaching that of Berkshire Hathaway, would translate into a magnitude of share purchase of TSLA by BRK that coincides with that they did with AAPL years ago. Maybe an appreciation for the pricing power, growth potential and raw material acquisition foresight of the energy storage side of things will get them in the game.

They'll buy when the Tesla CEO is no longer controversial and SP is more attractive. Not now, but very possibly within the next few months.

 

[Linus_2]

I read too many speculations regarding, China, I will add to my post of December 12.

The Covid cloud over china are moving away, actually faster than I expected.
This week, Beijing is resuming normal life, Shanghai will follow probably within two weeks.
This is Good news of China and businesses .

Knowing that from November to January 1,400 Million Chinese will got through covid
It is a waste of time to look at what BYD or Tesla is doing in December or January.

The target is for china is to produce 9 million EV in 2023 (I think I read that from moneyball on twitter)
Again Tesla is doing very well, in my Beijing neighborhood, I see Tesla cars every 50 yards.
I will patiently hold until new high, cheers.

 

[tslalala]

Uncle Leo goes full on Greg mode now. The recent decline really breaks him.

What’s “full Greg mode” mean? Thanks!

 

[Max Plaid]

That is far better than having a professional PR dept. think of the costs to you the shareholders.

Do you think that would cost more than the -$300 from ATH or the daily 5% destruction of portfolio value?

 

[tslalala]

True, but BYD has outsold Tesla almost 5-1 recently. That makes me wonder if there may be an issue and I don’t think it is wise to sweep any potential problems under the rug.

BYD’s recent 5-1 sales include a large # of hybrid sales too since China’s hybrid subsidies are supposed to be permanently expiring in 2022 (similar to in Europe due to the realization threat hybrids are slightly more efficient ICE cars in disguise). Most expect this to be the last hoorah for hybrids in China leading to EV-only subsidies moving forwards.

 

[mongo]

Do you think that would cost more than the -$300 from ATH or the daily 5% destruction of portfolio value?

Depends how much the SEC fines them for pumping or dumping the stock (depending on the information released) and when they announce the investigation and suit.
/s?

 

[CorneliusXX]

So we are a broken stock now… how many years before we reclaim $200? $300?

It really won't be very long for this to turn around. Tesla will have record profits in Q4, continue its production expansion, continue 4680 expansion, announce a new Gigafactory, likely switch on energy storage (the market will love diversified income). I'd be amazed if we don't finish over $200 in CY23. That said, I have no ideal where the bottom will be - shorts, fud are piling in to push the price down to an insane low.

As the market cap reduces it could be possible for some investors to take a meaningful stake in the company - Apple or Buffet could take 10% without much of an effort and move the company in ways that aren't necessarily in line with what Elon wants. Elon's ownership is down to 13%.

 

[tslalala]

With the “we-dont-call-it-a-shutdown” shutdown confirmed by Tesla China for this last week of December, it appears the Reuters reports from earlier in December have on balance been proven out to be true.

Prediction made: Reuters reported a planned production slowdown in the several weeks leading up to Xmas, followed by a week long shutdown from xmas to new years.

What eventuated: At least one on the ground local source (WUWA) confirmed the production slowdown had taken place in the weeks leading up to xmas, and tesla itself has confirmed the now in place production halt.

We can of course debate the reasons behind the weeks of production slowdown and the production halt this December, but in future perhaps it is unwise for members here to swiftly call Reuters reports as bogus when they eventuate.

==========

When it comes to what actually happened - it will be valuable for us to hear from Tesla at earnings why these decisions were made. Most here assumed any temporary demand slump in china would not slow production as excess production capacity could all be directed to the export markets (especially with Tesla “unwinding the wave”), which has not happened to the extent we would have expected.

One new strategy Tesla has at its disposal after increasing production efficiencies/capacity is to be able to have a new buffer zone (or elbow room) to be able to shut down the plant for longer (reducing overhead expenses) and yet being able to output still greater number of vehicles than at the previous production ceilings. This is almost like having the ability to freeze/stop time

 

[matejpi]

For the last couple of days, I am rage buying TSLA stock whenever I can. I can afford to wait for a year or two for the stock to recover, but I doubt that I will have to wait that long.

 

[SO16]

Interesting viewpoint on shutdown.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1607730088837091330

 

[lascavarian]

For those inclined to pay attention to Max Pain...

After a period of bouncing around a bit.

12/12 190
12/13 185
12/14 177
12/15 172
12/16 170
12/19 157
12/20 155
12/21 148
12/22 145
12/23 135
12/27 138

Today MP bumps up a bit after a 10 day slide. Were volume not so high, this might mean more but it is something interesting. YMMV

 

[EVWatcher]

Remember when the big fear for the stock was Elon got covid and we were all bracing for info on how bad the symptoms were?

This too shall pass

 

[Drax7]

It really won't be very long for this to turn around. Tesla will have record profits in Q4, continue its production expansion, continue 4680 expansion, announce a new Gigafactory, likely switch on energy storage (the market will love diversified income). I'd be amazed if we don't finish over $200 in CY23. That said, I have no ideal where the bottom will be - shorts, fud are piling in to push the price down to an insane low.

As the market cap reduces it could be possible for some investors to take a meaningful stake in the company - Apple or Buffet could take 10% without much of an effort and move the company in ways that aren't necessarily in line with what Elon wants. Elon's ownership is down to 13%.

Carl Icahn could pull a big buy, he did it with apple and Netflix when they collapsed in the past.
but nobody should count on that. When Icahn says Elon should call him to invest in twitter
that speaks volumes.

 

[JRP3]

It would be nice if Charlie Munger's recent admiration for Tesla/Elon, which coincides with TSLA's PE ratio approaching that of Berkshire Hathaway, would translate into a magnitude of share purchase of TSLA by BRK that coincides with that they did with AAPL years ago. Maybe an appreciation for the pricing power, growth potential and raw material acquisition foresight of the energy storage side of things will get them in the game.

An unpredictable CEO doesn't seem like something that fits with BRK.

They'll buy when the Tesla CEO is no longer controversial and SP is more attractive. Not now, but very possibly within the next few months.

You think Elon will become less controversial in a few months? Because the trend suggest otherwise. Or are you predicting a new CEO?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Dec 27, 2022 09:03 AM ET
Pre-Market Volume 8,787,814

 

[Max Plaid]

Dec 27, 2022 09:03 AM ET
Pre-Market Volume 8,787,814

WeBull says 4.23M, CNBS 9.1M

I could imagine WeBull is counting the sell/buy as a single transaction, CNBS counting each separately, that's the only explanation I have as WeBull is usually around half the CNBS volume

 

[mrmage]

An unpredictable CEO doesn't seem like something that fits with BRK.

You think Elon will become less controversial in a few months? Because the trend suggest otherwise. Or are you predicting a new CEO?

New global CEO. Plus Elon has said many times that he doesn't want to be CEO and that Tesla team has been executing really well.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon's ownership is down to 13%.

It'll be back up to ~25% (less some small dilution since Apr 2018)

Tesla Investor Relations

PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan. 23, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla today announced a new 10-year CEO performance award for Elon Musk with vesting entirely contingent on achieving market cap and operational milestones that would make Tesla one of the most valuable companies in the world.

ir.tesla.com

The big issue is when Elon chooses to excercise those options after they vest (only 1 tranche yet to vest of the 12).

Some say Elon is better off to wait til near the end of the eligibiltiy period (2028) to maximize his capital gains. Others say Elon should excercise soon while the SP is (relatively) low to minimize his income tax payable.

What is NOT discussed is the effect the SP at exercise has on Tesla's payroll tax for Elon's CEO comp package. Seems to me, the lower the SP at excercise, the less total tax Tesla will owe on behalf of of Elon. This issue was a significant one earlier this year when Elon excercised his 2012 CEO stock options. IIRC, Tesla had to pay on the order of $500M in payroll taxes for Elon.

Paging @The Accountant @mongo

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Do we know what is happening with Chinese production? If sales have decreased, is inventory staying locally or are all of those vehicles on ships? If it’s that latter, do the number of outbound ships from Shanghai seem consistent with that?