Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

My hunch is MY 5 seater will be included in the IRA in the near future, as is.
With all the inconsistencies between it and the others already listed, especially the inclusion of the worthless hybrids. By March there will be clarification, and anyone who already bought or leased it will qualify for the 2023 subsidy.

Issue, is how will this affect Q1?

By Q2, Tesla will have a plan/modification, and/or Govt will resolve the issue. My bet is on Tesla.

Still think if 5/7 are made to be at same price point, many might not care and go for the 7 seater (even though 3rd row will be like a useless/unused appendage for most)
(Who ever added 3rd row seat in MY, kudos ... )

 

[traxila]

Never been lucky enough to work somewhere where they gave me stock or options as remuneration.

Please educate, inform if I am wrong:

Options are usually priced when you are hired. So a 75% collapse in SP is most depressing for employee.

However, subsidised stock buys are almost available as well. E.G. Opportunity to buy fixed amount of shares at the lowest quarterly price every three months or some such equation.

What kind of stock comp packages are available to Tesla employees? I would assume they would be happy to buy shares at quarterly lows…. Since they are in the company and should have a better forecast than most.

 

[traxila]

That Tesla "Economist" shuld really STFU and go and lick their wounds.

Not sure is same person anymore.

 

[Nocturnal]

Exactly.
If anything at all, make that 3rd row removable in DIY style... for those die hard I-can't-be-seen-in-7-seater-car-for-the-life-of-me...

Even better, just make them removable as a feature. I've driven several vehicles over the years with removable seats. It's common in minivans.

 

[generalenthu]

There are two camps here on TMC: one that ascribes poor government policy to incompetence/laziness; and another that ascribes poor government policy to fraud. I fall in the latter camp, because I never see evidence of laziness/incompetence in major spending bills such as the IRA. I see well-designed, highly thought out bills that help certain special interests at the expense of others. Fine, call me a conspiracy theorist (and yes, I am biased), but it's naive to assume bills that allocate billions of taxpayer dollars are haphazardly written by interns over drinks at the local DC strip club. When billions of dollars are on the line, when political careers can be made or broken, when entire industries are at stake, incompetence and laziness are nowhere to be found. Only the best and brightest of the ruling class are involved in writing bills like the IRA. In my view, we've got the best government money can buy. That's simply how some of us see the world. We will have to agree to disagree.

James Madison said, "If men were angels, no government would be necessary." I agree with this statement. I also agree with the quote, "Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." The history of the world is more fraud than anything else, in my view, more about men looking after their own interests above all else, and the men with more money and power have more leverage. Maybe for you the world adheres to Truth, Justice and the American way, but not for me. My world is a world of lying, stealing, cheating and killing, especially when my survival depends on it. I don't blame big corporations for fixing outcomes; they have the money to do so, and their very survival is at stake.

It's a kill or be killed world out there. Stepping on throats to get ahead is the name of the game. The Law of Jungle still applies and probably always will. Some of us on this forum appreciate this fact more than others, and those of us who own businesses feel this very acutely. It is not by accident that federal policy results in a less level playing field, but oh well, someone has to be in charge.

Tesla did setup a lobbying presence in DC and a simple google search tells me that they spent about half a million last year. This is not even peanuts, but more like skin of peanuts. If anything this is a priority over and above spending any money on ads.

That said all this spending is for naught in the current admin, if the rhetoric elsewhere keeps up.

 

[strago13]

Never been lucky enough to work somewhere where they gave me stock or options as remuneration.

Please educate, inform if I am wrong:

Options are usually priced when you are hired. So a 75% collapse in SP is most depressing for employee.

However, subsidised stock buys are almost available as well. E.G. Opportunity to buy fixed amount of shares at the lowest quarterly price every three months or some such equation.

What kind of stock comp packages are available to Tesla employees? I would assume they would be happy to buy shares at quarterly lows…. Since they are in the company and should have a better forecast than most.

Correct, it is depressing. Lets say you got hired at the peak, the trailing 30 day stock price is usually the value of your Restricted Stock Units. These are NOT options like Elon gets. I have employees who I hired (I dont work for Tesla) whose RSU's are at the ATH.

Also correct, my employer offers an employee stock purchase program which is a 10% discount off of the current SP. However, they usually cap this benefit at 10-25k per year. So its not a super incentive.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

That's hopeful, but I have a feeling the IRA details were purposeful to exclude the MY5, not a mistake so no "corrections" coming.

Maybe they knew how much taxpayer money they'd need to put out if the MY5 qualified, so they bent the rules on purpose to exclude it? Maybe it's retribution towards Tesla for Elon speaking out against the Democrats? Maybe the purpose of the IRA is not to promote EV's but rather to boost legacy auto with taxpayer money without directly bailing them out in plain sight?

Whatever the case, the IRA seems to have been meticulously crafted to exclude America's best selling EV, and that simply can't be by accident.

Why would you expect a price limit for sedans and hatchbacks to be $66k or more?

$55k buys a lot of EV, and covers pretty much all the new compact crossovers, apart from performance variants.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe the model 3 revamp also includes a lower spec (lower acceleration?), cheapy-cheap-cheap version, made possible by DBE, 4680, front & rear casting.

Lol, any "cheapy-cheap" Model 3 will have LFP batteries, not 4680s.

 

[hiroshiy]

They can't, they are RHD cars.

Mainland China is LHD.

 

[mongo]

That's hopeful, but I have a feeling the IRA details were purposeful to exclude the MY5, not a mistake so no "corrections" coming.

Maybe they knew how much taxpayer money they'd need to put out if the MY5 qualified, so they bent the rules on purpose to exclude it? Maybe it's retribution towards Tesla for Elon speaking out against the Democrats? Maybe the purpose of the IRA is not to promote EV's but rather to boost legacy auto with taxpayer money without directly bailing them out in plain sight?

Whatever the case, the IRA seems to have been meticulously crafted to exclude America's best selling EV, and that simply can't be by accident.

No action was taken was done to specifically exclude the 5 seat Y. Its exclusion is a default state of being.

The $80k MSRP is for SUV, vans, and pickup trucks which are all versions of 'light truck'.
The Federal Law, since 2009, has allowed a vehicle with minimal ground clearance to qualify as a 'light truck' if it has 3 rows of seats where 2 rows fold flat for cargo (only reason a 7 seat Y qualifies). 49 CFR § 523.5 - Non-passenger automobile.
This section of the law is under NHTSA section.
The EPA definitions also rely on this regulation (light ttuck vs passenger vehicle). However, the EPA Administrator can modify vehicle classifications. Further, the EPA allows grouping cars by model line which apparently allows the latitude to group all Y under the SUV banner.

Treasury could update guidance to expand the groupings. If they do, that opens them to further criticism since some person/ group becomes the sole judge of MSRP cutoff.

 

[gabeincal]

Never been lucky enough to work somewhere where they gave me stock or options as remuneration.

Please educate, inform if I am wrong:

Options are usually priced when you are hired. So a 75% collapse in SP is most depressing for employee.

However, subsidised stock buys are almost available as well. E.G. Opportunity to buy fixed amount of shares at the lowest quarterly price every three months or some such equation.

What kind of stock comp packages are available to Tesla employees? I would assume they would be happy to buy shares at quarterly lows…. Since they are in the company and should have a better forecast than most.

A standard Employee Purchase Plan (ESPP) in the US enables that you can contribute through every paycheck (max ~5-10% of paycheck) over a 6-mth period. Once the purchase period is ending, the plan operator checks whether the first or last day of the period has a lower SP, deducts a percentage (usually 15%) of that, and purchases shares on behalf of employee. Essentially a 15% discount guarantee regardless of market conditions.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I definitely get the feeling we are on the cusp of some announcement. Tesla sound too quiet, and too confident. Something feels afoot.
Maybe the model 3 revamp also includes a lower spec (lower acceleration?), cheapy-cheap-cheap version, made possible by DBE, 4680, front & rear casting.

There is DEFINITELY a market for a less racy Tesla. If there was not, 'chill mode' would never have become an option. I know plenty of people here in the Uk who would leap at a cheaper model 3, even if the acceleration was heavily reduced, even if it was shorter range. Just the brand+charging network + potential future autonomy sells it.

TBH if Tesla said they were selling a 'basic' model 3 *at cost*, I'd be happy as an investor. It brings in a ton more supercharging revenue, more FSD data collection, and acts as a gateway to more expensive models when trading up.

I shall watch any discussion of project highland with interest.

Or Tesla has nothing new yet. It has bet on 4680 and FSD and they're not good to make a substantial difference.

 

[Nocturnal]

This isn't the kind of epic that I was hoping for.

 

[15Peter20]

Pow. Straight in the kisser.

 

[chrsk]

This isn't the kind of epic that I was hoping for.

Indeed. Kind of stange after holding up so good before opening.

 

[Unpilot]

Demand is not a problem, the high price of the car is the problem.
Just lower the car price as input costs decline to expand sales.

I swear, I'm lost ....these "experts" keep missing the forest for the trees.

IF there was a "demand" problem....IMHO there is not.....think about the ways Tesla can pull demand forward.

1. Price is the big one of course, and Tesla has MUCH more flexibility than any other car company.
2. Free supercharging.....on a charging network that actually works.

Name any other car company that has the ability to generate money like a software company with reoccurring income streams.

1. FSD subscription
2. Premium connectivity
3. Tesla Insurance
4. Long term ...Robotaxi's
5. While I would hate to see it on my car....those big screens sure must look attractive to advertisers when there are millions on the rd.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

This isn't the kind of epic that I was hoping for.

Was it reasonable to expect anything else? There's still a lot of short interest out there and when the shortsellers are given a chance to push down the stock they will use it.

 

[dgodfrey]

From what I understand, leases get the credit no matter what the price is. Is this correct? Is so could Tesla offer a 1 month lease and customer buys after a month?

Even better, lease for 2 years under the terms that Tesla sells it to you and you capture the $4,000 used car incentive.

 

[Nocturnal]

Was it reasonable to expect anything else? There's still a lot of short interest out there and when the shortsellers are given a chance to push down the stock they will use it.

Based on P&D this is pretty much what I expected. Really hoping that earnings are relatively better vs deliveries. We need a taste of that Tesla magic.

The irony that WS doesn't believe Tesla can grow at 40%+ but wants to punish TSLA for not hitting 50% is not lost on me.

 

[juanmedina]

Never been lucky enough to work somewhere where they gave me stock or options as remuneration.

Please educate, inform if I am wrong:

Options are usually priced when you are hired. So a 75% collapse in SP is most depressing for employee.

However, subsidised stock buys are almost available as well. E.G. Opportunity to buy fixed amount of shares at the lowest quarterly price every three months or some such equation.

What kind of stock comp packages are available to Tesla employees? I would assume they would be happy to buy shares at quarterly lows…. Since they are in the company and should have a better forecast than most.

where I work you get a 15% discount from the lowest SP in a certain period and you can put a max of 10% of your yearly salary on the ESPP