Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

Its 12:35PM Central time and if you heard about new $7500 tax credit on EVs and were interested in a Tesla and visit the Tesla site you wouldn't know any Tesla's qualify.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Looking forward to catalysts it's hard to see much in the short term. Earnings might still be good enough to move the stock a bit but nothing major. I'm seeing Cybertruck deliveries and the FED halting rate increases as the next things to pin our hopes on.

Pretty much if Q4 earnings don't come in better than expected and/or there's a couple surprises on the earnings, next catalyst isn't until the Investors Day in 2 months. Good CPI prints could help in setting the floor for the stock in this 100 range but who knows at this point

 

[elasalle]

Its 12:35PM Central time and if you heard about new $7500 tax credit on EVs and were interested in a Tesla and visit the Tesla site you wouldn't know any Tesla's qualify.

Someone revisiting from last week would think the 7.5K credits disappeared

 

[vikings123]

Tesla's new Megafactory in Lantrop, CA is real and is ramping production right now. Tesla just released a new video tour in the past week, and said the facility is capable of building 10,000 megapacks per year. At $2.6M each, that's $26 B in annual revenue from just this one plant. Gross margins should be over 40%. How's that business compared to Auto? How seasonal is demand for Utility-scale infrastructure? How price-inelastic is demand for this product?

And Tesla wants to build at least 2 more Megafactories, including one at Giga Berlin (yes, that's an announcement from Tesla too). The 3rd one might be in Eastern N. America.

I get it but you missed the essence of my post. There’s a huge difference between potential and actual numbers. Haven’t we been waiting for the energy pivot for the past couple of years? I don’t doubt the potential but I’m also a realist.

I’m also very disappointed in some of the ridiculous things I’m reading on Twitter, like seriously we believe every car Tesla makes is make to order? How can you defend that nonsense when we likely went through 30-40k inventory because of a huge EoQ incentive and still missed by a huge margin. Im not worried about my Tesla investment and will likely buy more but I hate to see new investors getting sucked into hyperbole when all we need to do is look at the data. Q4 was mismanaged no matter how you slice and dice it. Q4 ER hopefully will address a lot of my concerns.

I find it ludicrous that a certain influencer had the balls to post a TSLA SP vs patreon subscribers count showing an inverse relationship. That’s messed up.

 

[bigsmooth125]

This:

View attachment 891878

If you read between the lines, this statement, along with Elon's statement that they'd be willing drop the price as much as possible to maximize the number of vehicles sold, may bode well for the mission to transition to sustainable energy, but it does not bode well for TSLA. Invest accordingly.

 

[Sofie]

Back in 1919, Henry Ford announced his 'retirement' from Ford Motor. Share price fell 90%. Henry scooped up a controlling interest at a dime on a dollar, then took Ford private.

Ford Motor would not return as a publicly traded company until the Ford Foundation did an IPO on Jan 18, 1956.

"Henry Ford" since Aug 2018 | Arttful Dodger on TMC

Remember That Time Ford Went Private? Elon Musk & Henry Ford | Cleantechnica

Is past prologue for Elon Musk? Why passionate executives matter | Autoblog

Not saying this will happen, jus' sayin' that this has happened in the past...

And what would that be like “if” that did happen and Elon took us private?

 

[Paracelsus]

I am really surprised that MM’s haven’t dropped the price below $100 to gobble up what must be a mountain of stops that were set in the doubt digits. I would imagine that Shorts piled on hard to try to help facilitate that effort given the huge probability it would happen. Are we seeing a bear trap here just above $100. It would be brilliant in hindsight.

 

[dl003]

And what would that be like “if” that did happen and Elon took us private?

He has to sell TWTR stock to fund the takeover, of course. We're going full circle baby. This is what the SEC gets for not taking his 420 tweet seriously.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I am really surprised that MM’s haven’t dropped the price below $100 to gobble up what must be a mountain of stops that were set in the doubt digits. I would imagine that Shorts piled on hard to try to help facilitate that effort given the huge probability it would happen. Are we seeing a bear trap here just above $100. It would be brilliant in hindsight.

I think our best hope is that the funds accumulating in the final two weeks of December are setting a clear line in the sand and are willing to defend the 100/share line....one can dream at least

 

[Matias]

A guidance is a just that, a guidance - when all things equal. But there are big macro black swan events that has happened and one needs to look at the performance against that. Ukraine war, supply chain issues, China Covid resurgence and most importantly a massive stock market crash.

One needs to look at the performance against this backdrop and not simply beat the guidance stick. It is just absurd.

Normally companies issue a profit warning if they need to lower their guidance. Tesla didn’t. It was their choice.

 

[mongo]

Its 12:35PM Central time and if you heard about new $7500 tax credit on EVs and were interested in a Tesla and visit the Tesla site you wouldn't know any Tesla's qualify.

Imagine how long the notice would need to be...
"If you pick one of these models ___ and you don't add too many options, and your modified income is less than ___ based on filing as ___ and you take delivery before ___ you may qualify for a tax credit of ___ if your annual tax liability is more than ___ and the Secretary of Treasury doesn't change things.
However, if you take delivery after March, all bets are off. "

 

[Artful Dodger]

I get it but you missed the essence of my post. There’s a huge difference between potential and actual numbers. Haven’t we been waiting for the energy pivot for the past couple of years? I don’t doubt the potential but I’m also a realist.

Sorry, you're wallowing now. Lathrop is real, and its ramping. Handwaving about past disappointment based on what? Tesla didn't even have a supply of LFP cells for TE (they were COMPETING with Tesla Auto for Panasonic 2170s, and getting short shrift).

If you can't see and identify the plain differences in product, logistics and intent, then we can not help you to sea.

 

[Singuy]

A guidance is a just that, a guidance - when all things equal. But there are big macro black swan events that has happened and one needs to look at the performance against that. Ukraine war, supply chain issues, China Covid resurgence and most importantly a massive stock market crash.

One needs to look at the performance against this backdrop and not simply beat the guidance stick. It is just absurd.

People should listen to the conference call again. Zach said they were tracking supply chain risk but will hopefully hit 50% yoy production. Elon said currently tracking for a great q4, but knock on wood. Then Zach expressed that there will be a large gap between production and deliveries due to unwinding the wave transition.

I think Tesla was tracking to produce more cars but then the entire China covid thing happened and supply chain bite them in the butt, so they ended up shutting down from DEC 25th on and reduced production prior to that.

 

[Raisin45567]

A guidance is a just that, a guidance - when all things equal. But there are big macro black swan events that has happened and one needs to look at the performance against that. Ukraine war, supply chain issues, China Covid resurgence and most importantly a massive stock market crash.

One needs to look at the performance against this backdrop and not simply beat the guidance stick. It is just absurd.

Can’t have it both ways. The 50% guidance helped raise value and expectations. A miss doesn’t change what management told investors.

 

[Stretch2727]

Imagine how long the notice would need to be...
"If you pick one of these models ___ and you don't add too many options, and your modified income is less than ___ based on filing as ___ and you take delivery before ___ you may qualify for a tax credit of ___ if your annual tax liability is more than ___ and the Secretary of Treasury doesn't change things.
However, if you take delivery after March, all bets are off. "

You mean like this.

 

[mach-edriver]

And what would that be like “if” that did happen and Elon took us private?

I doubt that Musk today has the wherewithal to finance an LBO. My guess is the Ford was when initiated his.

 

[Ogre]

I get it but you missed the essence of my post. There’s a huge difference between potential and actual numbers. Haven’t we been waiting for the energy pivot for the past couple of years? I don’t doubt the potential but I’m also a realist.

Most of the bullishness around Tesla Energy revolves around observed production and deliveries.

There is a big difference between Tesla saying "We are going to pivot to energy" versus actually seeing they have 2-5 GWh of product in motion.

We've seen them break ground and production ramping up at Lathrop, this isn't about potential, it's about production adding to the bottom line.

We're no longer debating when they will pivot. The debate is how much product actually shipped and how much it'll add to the bottom line.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And what would that be like “if” that did happen and Elon took us private?

Keep in mind, I do not expect this to happen. Just at AI Day 2022, Elon said that Tesla is the perfect place to develop AGI because its a public company and "people can fire me if they don't like what I'm doing".

That should be more worrying to us than another 'take-private' bid, since there's bound to be calls for Elon's head at this year's AGM due to the low SP and his (perceived) role in selling. You already hear the rabble lining up for a Board seat at Tesla (ie: Gary).

But a take-over worked out financially for 'birdies' this November, better than they were doing languishing for the past 8 years. So I'd expect a substantial premium on a payout, but I'd vote against. I'm here for the Mission, not the Money (but can we have both? I hope so).

Cheers!

 

[NicoV]

In The Netherlands, the last 5 working days of the year 2022 were good for 1500 cars:

Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 14 countries, 90+% of BEV market

That is about one third of all the 2022 Tesla sales in The Netherlands (4860).
Hectic is an understatement here.

 

[aGreenGuy]

So a hostile take over is less of a risk, but there is a risk of «taking Tesla private»… ? I believe so much in this company’s success, so it’s agonizing to think that my shares could be force sold at a ridiculously low price, like after taking it private.

I didn’t think it would come to this but I just sold ~7% of my shares at 104.97 just to keep some profits