Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Why are you arguing a point I didn't dispute? You are off in the weeds here.

It's literally what he does. See his avatar.

 

[petit_bateau]

Thank you for your excellent response and information. Much of what I have seen as positives for Tesla energy and an imminent ramp from Lathrop comes from this poster and thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604589781325074432

He sounds convincing. You much more so. What do you think of what was posted?

In my opinion ....

- Global domestic clients are voting with their wallets for generic Chinese LFP storage. Except for the sort of client for whom the sticker is important, they buy Tesla. Oh, and some Americans. It is already game over for scale-dominance in this segment and Tesla lost the game.

- Global utility clients are cannier. They will never allow anyone to become scale-dominant. The ones who are susceptible to FUD ("no-one got sacked for buying IBM") or who cannot bring themselves to buy Chinese, buy Tesla. The rest buy Chinese LFP with perhaps a side-order of non-Chinese shrinkwrap splattered with Western badges as camouflage. Tesla is - I think - quite rapidly moving from a wining position to a losing position.

I skim read a lot of other folk out there on the web. Most of them get hung up on trying to figure out a bit of the Tesla storage offer. Mostly they miss the storage competitors. And they don't understand industrial dynamics. And they have no idea re the wider energy game. Plus they don't understand well how this meshes with automotive. So they've zeroed in on one leaf on one tree in one wood inside one forest on one continent in a big planet. Plus other stuff. That chap(ess) you linked to is at leaf-level.

After 30-years in the energy game; from oil well to inverter; wind to solar; hydro to battery; 12V to 1.2 million volts; classroom to factory to field .... I try to put things in context.

But that chap(ess) is still saying things that are worth reading, not ignoring.

(And if Tesla think I'm wrong, and wish the market to understand that, then Tesla should publish regular, reliable facts about both their own business and the global market; and answer properly posed questions from knowledgeable people.)

 

[carterm2]

Hyundai...expecting 10% growth in 2023

"Hyundai plans to expand market share and operate profitability oriented businesses by flexibly responding to market changes, accelerating its transition to electrification, responding to global environmental regulations, and optimizing production, logistics and sales by region," the company said in a statement."

from

"Hyundai, Kia expect vehicle sales to jump 10% in 2023"

..........................

Hyndai Statement link

"Hyundai Motor Reports 2022 Global Sales and 2023 Goals"


"For December 2022, Hyundai’s monthly global sales totaled 347,340 units, including 276,953 for overseas markets and 70,387 for the Korean market.

Hyundai was also able to accelerate its transition to electrification last year, thanks to the strong sales of IONIQ 5 and the successful launch of IONIQ 6. The IONIQ 5 and IONIQ 6 together recorded over 100,000 units of global sales in 2022. "

 

[CanadaEV]

Always impossible to call the bottom, but might be a good time for the effort.
LEAPS decisions can work out significantly better when placed at as low a price as possible.

These opportunities have been rare, and always look scary when they arrive.

 

[Knightshade]

That's fine. I assumed as much and said so if you'd bothered reading the whole post.

Why are you arguing a point I didn't dispute? You are off in the weeds here.

Uh- you absolutely argued that point and not only didn't assume it, you specifically denied it and I quoted you doing it.

Their "Guidance" didn't even say whether it was growth in production or deliveries.

That is flat out wrong. They DID say if it was production or deliveries. In fact they gave that guidance for BOTH things- explicitly.


Why are you denying you said something when it was directly quoted to you?

 

[Mengy]

Buybacks are not the answer … get that darn cybertruck into production!

CT probably won't amount to much revenue nor positive impact this year, not compared to around 2,000,000 Model S3XY's. Yes it will be great to see it start production and see some on the roads, but the revenue add from CT will likely be minimal this year. 2024 should see a larger adder from CT.

 

[petit_bateau]

And what would that be like “if” that did happen and Elon took us private?

It would be very bad for smallbeer private individuals like us, who have borne years of pain and risk, with the opportunity to access the longer term upside reward. We would be forced out at distressed price levels. Not pleasant.

 

[StealthP3D]

I agree mostly with your take on Tesla Solar, but...

Tesla wind? Seriously?

I know, right? Why are the hopefuls always hyping up the Tesla Wind Division? I'm not afraid to say it, the employees that run the Wind Division are real losers! And Elon is worst hypester of the Wind Division ever! I mean, every time he lets out his hot air it's like he's saying Tesla Wind Energy is going to be bigger than the auto business, but it never goes anywhere! Elon's always lying about how great Tesla Wind is and the hopefuls just lap it and regurgitate it here. /s

 

[mongo]

That's why I am speculating that they were hoping for more production. Your scenario requires pretty much everything to go right as the number of inventory units are just too low to hit 47% without giving every effort and hope that all the ships arrive on time, and 2/3 of all deliveries get crammed into December. This is why they were hoping for higher production because they were not going to push.

If they were to keep the same gap of 95.6% cars delivered vs produced, production would need to be like 1.43M or so, an extra 50k worth to hit the "just under 50%". The gap was always going to be there due to unwinding the wave. Your scenario is barely no gap and goes back to pushing for wave deliveries.

Indeed. Re-re-re-reading the transcript, Zachary may have been referring to that chronological gap, not further comparison of 50 and less than 50. In other words, cars built in Q4 but delivered in Q1. As we saw, the timing on the final ships was tight. Also calls out that the cars are 'in transit' versus unsold 'inventory'.

The next part of the call: "just under 50 percent growth due to an increase in the cars in transit at the end of the year as noted just above. This means that again you should expect a gap between production and deliveries in Q4 and those cars in transit will be delivered shortly to their customers upon arrival to their destination in Q1."

 

[loquitur]

He also missed out Tesla Nuclear and Tesla Hydro. Zero sales !

But Tesla home heat pumps could happen.

 

[WattsHappening]

I don't know why some people keep claiming capitulation already happened. IMO, capitulation doesn't look like that. If you zoom in too closely, everything looks like a crash or a capitulation. Try to think in big "chunks" of money and time if you want to be a better investor.

I agree. None of the trading in the past few weeks feel like capitulation to me. It's certainly possible that we can hit a low, consolidate and then move up with the market never capitulating. But to say that capitulation occurred does not seem correct to me. All of the trading has been very orderly; no panic selling that I can see.

 

[petit_bateau]

I don't think casting requires a particular factory size.

The same casting machine can make a number of different castings for different models.

The casting capex is offset against less stamping, fewer body shop Robots, less floor space.

What I hope Gen3 involves is a lot more casting, but a mixture of mschine sizes including cheaper 4000 series machines where possible.

On site 4680 LFP cell and structural pack production.

Aliminium bodies, a mixture of painted and unpainted.

4 different Models from the same factory total combined capacity 1-2 million per year.

My view is that Chinese EV makers will only be able to compete against this model by copying it, it seems like the formula for the cheapest possible EVs.

I don't know what Tesla has in mind, but cars on boats are a waste of money, the best logistics is minimal logistics, with cars built as close as possible to the end customer.

Ditto for logistics Chinese will not be able to compete by shipping cars from China to worldwide markets. RORO is an expensive option for entry level cars.

Check capex cost for a machine.
Check cycle time.
Check downtime between tool change.
Think through volume required to store completed castings so as to have the necessary castings on hand to keep Z line(s) moving from X casting machines.
Re-think your comment.
I've done the sums before on TMC if you go back and look.

 

[dhanson865]

Its 12:35PM Central time and if you heard about new $7500 tax credit on EVs and were interested in a Tesla and visit the Tesla site you wouldn't know any Tesla's qualify.

I said something similar recently.

I sure hope Tesla makes a blog entry for this. Too much confusion, needs a clear answer from Tesla on file.

Mongo had the weird reply (around page 19315 Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Tesla can’t say, they have no control over what occurs and when. Treasury (and worst case, the judicial/ legislative branches) do.

and I had to reply

Tesla can say as a clarification after it happens.

I'm not asking for them to post before it happens. I'm asking for them to post later and have the answer on file. I want a link to that answer on the ordering page so there is no confusion once the answer is known.

I'm not sure why people can't see the need to put a clear answer on the tesla website on every page relevant to pricing and rebates.

I should be able to customize an order and see the rebate apply or drop off as I cross a threshold.

 

[Nocturnal]

Decent tweet thread on MY eligibility. Only the government could take such a simple idea and make it so friggin complicated.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610068587456118786

 

[Captkerosene]

Anybody have real evidence of Lathrop ramping up? (Didn't Tesla say 150-200% growth not 1,000% growth in energy?) You'd think there would be guys with binoculars scouting out the factory. Hard to hide semi truck sized batteries leaving the factory. Thanks PB for a well thought out bear case analysis.

 

[thesmokingman]

CNBC at it again with Capt Dunce Irwin...

 

[MC3OZ]

In my opinion ....

- Global domestic clients are voting with their wallets for generic Chinese LFP storage. Except for the sort of client for whom the sticker is important, they buy Tesla. Oh, and some Americans. It is already game over for scale-dominance in this segment and Tesla lost the game.

- Global utility clients are cannier. They will never allow anyone to become scale-dominant. The ones who are susceptible to FUD ("no-one got sacked for buying IBM") or who cannot bring themselves to buy Chinese, buy Tesla. The rest buy Chinese LFP with perhaps a side-order of non-Chinese shrinkwrap splattered with Western badges as camouflage. Tesla is - I think - quite rapidly moving from a wining position to a losing position.

I skim read a lot of other folk out there on the web. Most of them get hung up on trying to figure out a bit of the Tesla storage offer. Mostly they miss the storage competitors. And they don't understand industrial dynamics. And they have no idea re the wider energy game. Plus they don't understand well how this meshes with automotive. So they've zeroed in on one leaf on one tree in one wood inside one forest on one continent in a big planet. Plus other stuff. That chap(ess) you linked to is at leaf-level.

After 30-years in the energy game; from oil well to inverter; wind to solar; hydro to battery; 12V to 1.2 million volts; classroom to factory to field .... I try to put things in context.

But that chap(ess) is still saying things that are worth reading, not ignoring.

(And if Tesla think I'm wrong, and wish the market to understand that, then Tesla should publish regular, reliable facts about both their own business and the global market; and answer properly posed questions from knowledgeable people.)

So in markets where the IRA doesn't apply, Tesla needs to close the price gap on Chinese LFP.

Raw materials are a minor part of the cost, most of the cost is in refining and manufacturing.

As per EVs, demand global for energy storage batteries is set to grow, the Chinese taking one slice of an expanding market doesn't stop Tesla taking a different slice.

As per cars, I agree Tesla needs to lower energy storage battery prices.

 

[bkp_duke]

Anybody have real evidence of Lathrop ramping up? (Didn't Tesla say 150-200% growth not 1,000% growth in energy?) You'd think there would be guys with binoculars scouting out the factory. Hard to hide semi truck sized batteries leaving the factory. Thanks PB for a well thought out bear case analysis.

There were some impressive drone videos, IIRC someone timed out like 40+ packs in a day.

 

[Singuy]

In my opinion ....

- Global domestic clients are voting with their wallets for generic Chinese LFP storage. Except for the sort of client for whom the sticker is important, they buy Tesla. Oh, and some Americans. It is already game over for scale-dominance in this segment and Tesla lost the game.

- Global utility clients are cannier. They will never allow anyone to become scale-dominant. The ones who are susceptible to FUD ("no-one got sacked for buying IBM") or who cannot bring themselves to buy Chinese, buy Tesla. The rest buy Chinese LFP with perhaps a side-order of non-Chinese shrinkwrap splattered with Western badges as camouflage. Tesla is - I think - quite rapidly moving from a wining position to a losing position.

I skim read a lot of other folk out there on the web. Most of them get hung up on trying to figure out a bit of the Tesla storage offer. Mostly they miss the storage competitors. And they don't understand industrial dynamics. And they have no idea re the wider energy game. Plus they don't understand well how this meshes with automotive. So they've zeroed in on one leaf on one tree in one wood inside one forest on one continent in a big planet. Plus other stuff. That chap(ess) you linked to is at leaf-level.

After 30-years in the energy game; from oil well to inverter; wind to solar; hydro to battery; 12V to 1.2 million volts; classroom to factory to field .... I try to put things in context.

But that chap(ess) is still saying things that are worth reading, not ignoring.

(And if Tesla think I'm wrong, and wish the market to understand that, then Tesla should publish regular, reliable facts about both their own business and the global market; and answer properly posed questions from knowledgeable people.)

I thought the game being played here has everything to do with battery production and time to deployment. Currently the Chinese are winning in battery production. Then there's Tesla heavy investing into 4680s, refineries, megapack manufacturing, and pack to site deployment to compete massively in this area. The premise is that Tesla megapacks will be well stocked, has faster deployment time, and on par/cheaper than generic LFP Chinese packs. Also I'm not sure if too many people want the Chinese to control a country's power grid. Seems kind of a national security risk.

 

[EVNow]

Link to petition to change language in IRA to include all versions of Model Y (currently 15,000 signatures as of this posting):

Sign the Petition

Fix the Inflation Reduction Act EV Tax Credit

www.change.org

Wait ... I believe the CEO has a very big megaphone now. All he has to do is tweet asking why Y doesn't get any EV credit when a bunch of hybrids do at Secretary Pete.

He'll get an answer for sure.