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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I dont care. I care that Tesla benefitted far more than any other manufacturer and IRA is bringing down the cost of ownership for EVs and Tesla will benefit the most. Remember it isnt just the $7500 tax credit.
Agreed for sure.

My gut says that they didn't go out of their way to screw over Tesla, but tried to play favorites where they could. But as you said it's the end result that matters.
 
I dont care. I care that Tesla benefitted far more than any other manufacturer and IRA is bringing down the cost of ownership for EVs and Tesla will benefit the most. Remember it isnt just the $7500 tax credit.
Yeah. In fact, not only is Tesla benefitting more than every other company, Tesla is probably going to benefit more than everyone else combined.

We can complain about unfairness in the IRA implementation and rightfully so but the bigger picture is that the law could've been written to cap Tesla's benefit and Congress did not do that. For example, the prior version of the EV credit had a cap of 200k vehicles per manufacturer after which it phased out. Instead of just raising the cap to some level only Tesla would hit (like 10 million cars), the government deleted it.

This is contingent upon the law staying as-is until expiration of the subsidies and Tesla approximately achieving their production growth goals stated on Battery Day. No one else is remotely close for battery and EV scaling plans in North America and the US, and Tesla will be getting 10% subsidies for mining and refining lithium in America too. We're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in total. The $45/kWh battery subsidy alone is worth about $200 billion if Tesla can make cumulatively 4 TWh between now and 2032.

As far as I can tell, the IRA is set to subsidize Tesla more than any company in US history. I'm not complaining.
 
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So suddenly, my big question this morning is do I order a Model Y today? If the answer is yes, I have to decide which of these (under $55K) options:

1. Blue on white interior
2. Red on black interior

I will abide by the results of this poll (kidding, I don't care what you guys think...unless one of you happens to be my wife reading this).
White, second choice blue
 
You know what, this is the first down day where I have not seen any complaints, or you know other... how strange.
I have a complaint, My phone updated it no longer auto unlocks or starts when near the car.
There, that's a bona-fide complaint !!

Edit: I am happy though because I won't be surprised to hear Aunt Cathie was buying again today...
 
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Now down to 652.

I've been watching X, S, and 3 on that list as well. X and S are slow trending down.

3 is down to 356, was over 500 just 2 hours ago.
The inventory in NY seems to be dropping faster than I can figure out if I qualify for the $7500. I can't seem to find a good source for what tax year I can base the Income threshold on. Some sources say the lower of 2022 or 2023 and some say the year it was purchased. If I can use 2022 I may qualify once I determine if 401k deductions are included in the MAGI or not.

Not that I am surprised but based on what I am seeing for NY inventory, it seems to be moving very fast. This morning there seemed to be a lot of the Y's in white under $55k but now there is only 1 single Y (black) under $55k.

Also, I have learned that the Used car market has tanked (back to "normal") compared to last year. My wifes 2021 Telluride's value has dropped a lot since 2022.
 
Isn't the difference between LR-AWD and P just software for the model 3?

Not for years, no.

The original was the same car except for SW. And they offered an additional option package for $5000 for the P that added the larger brakes, 20" wheels, spoiler, slightly lower (0.4") suspension, and sport pedals.

Then they decided to make that $5000 option package the "standard" P...and the old P with 18" wheels eventually vanished from the website.

Every once in a while the "old" P with 18s would show up in inventory, but never as something you could order.

So ever since then the P comes by default (and no choice when you order) with the 20s, different brakes, spoiler, etc compared to the LR AWD.


There was some motor binning in addition to software, i.e. same specs but those units that pass tighter tolerances are used for P

That also hasn't been true since at least early 2019.

Ps still come with the same 980 rear motor that both P and LR-AWD came with in 2018.

But LR-AWD has come for years now with the 990, a lesser spec (and lower cost) rear motor.


So it's definitely cheaper, parts-wise anyway, to make a non-P LR AWD, and has been since 2019 at least.
 
While I agree COGS are likely trending back down to previous levels, let's be realistic about this. Material costs are not going to immediately go back to 2021 levels today, it will take time over the next year or two most likely. This cliff of a price cut will not be met with a subsequent cliff of COGS reduction, that simply isn't realistic.

The price drop is good for ensuring production ramps go as planned and deliveries keep accelerating, but margins ARE going to take a hit due to this. The degree of the hit can be argued, and I agree margins will creep back up over time as both COGS reduce and economies of scale kicks in, but that will probably happen gradually, not today.
If the IRA tax credits are locked in on order—rather than at the time of purchase—and iirc they are, then Tesla might lock in orders for most of the year.

This will not only mitigate any decreased credits from partial (as in not impartial) changes to the IRA aimed to hamper Tesla relative to other OEM’s.

It will ’take the Oxygen from their competitors’ as ye olde Silicon Valley sentiment goes, thus reducing demand for materials for competing ICE and BEV’s. So disinflation may be faster here than elsewhere and faster than you might think. Not that I’m saying it will be "immediate."

[edit:] I’m informed below that a solid contract is needed not just a reservation.
 
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How many times does it need to be pointed out that those ICE hybrid vehicles already got the $7500 tax credit before IRA. I will have to find my post from a week or so ago which showed how many units those cars that the IRS lists as eligible sold last year with a $7500 tax credit. Hint: Not much.

Edit: Found pretty quick. This sure looks like sales that will go through the roof now that these cars still get the $7500 tax credit.

2022 Sales for PHEVs included in IRA
Jeep Wrangler 4xe 46,176
Pacifica PHEV Minivan 14,392
Grand Cherokee 4xe 5,813
Audi Q5 TFSI e Quattro (PHEV) - Couldnt find any sales numbers for this car. Audi total EV sales 16,177
BMW X5 xDrive45e - Cant find any break down of BMW sales
Ford Escape PHEV - Can only find sales for all Escapes and that was 128K.
Volvo S60 (PHEV) - Volvo plug ins sold 9,216.

Obviously, legacy auto lobbyists wanted to ensure PHEV's would continue to get the $7500 subsidies. That shouldn't be difficult to understand. PHEV sales reduces the sales of BEV's and PHEV production reduces the number of BEV's that can be built because the batteries are interchangeable between the two. IRA successfully extends PHEV subsidies for as long as IRA remains law. What part of that do you not understand?
 
Come to think of it, it almost seems that Tesla were a bit underwhelmed by the IRS proposed limit for IRA.

The IRS thought it has all figured out how to benefit Tesla as little as possible with its guidelines. With only GM complaining about its Lyriq, which IMO was more of a show.

Then Tesla was like. Ok, you sure this is all there is to the qualification?

IRS: yes! (Smiling suspiciously)

Tesla: ok…. Now, my turn. (Boom!!!)…. Who’s next?

I really thought the reaction to this was to re-introduce the mid-range 3. Very audacious to actually lower the LR by this much. We'll see how it shakes out but it's pretty exciting lol.
 
If the IRA tax credits are locked in on order—rather than at the time of purchase—and iirc they are, then Tesla might lock in orders for most of the year.

If that applies to the battery credits too, that they are "locked in" when the vehicle is ordered, this could be a big deal if Tesla is locked out of some of the battery credits after the Treasury guidance due in March.