Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Hey y’all. As production rises I wonder if there will be more attention paid to the Mexican market. Has anyone heard anything on a real build out of the Mexican Supercharger network and delivery centres?

Thanks in advance.

Mexico has about 27 Supercharger sites, typically 4-6 stalls..

supercharge.info

Zoomable Tesla supercharger map with adjustable range indicator.

supercharge.info

Seems like a good mix of locations.

Tesla Service Centers in Mexico | Tesla

Schedule a Tesla test drive at a time and date that is convenient for you.

www.tesla.com

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Mexico has about 27 Supercharger sites, typically 4-6 stalls..

supercharge.info

Zoomable Tesla supercharger map with adjustable range indicator.

supercharge.info

Seems like a good mix of locations.

Tesla Service Centers in Mexico | Tesla

Schedule a Tesla test drive at a time and date that is convenient for you.

www.tesla.com

Thanks. Yah I saw those. I guess I’m referring more to complete corridors like to Guad and el DF. Or down the coast to Maz and PV.

And I mean comprehensive corridors with superchargers every 200 kilometers.

And of course down the baja eventually.

Thanks.

 

[Ogre]

First… what a great post @phoggy123 Just a couple thoughts on yours.

1. I think there has been a coordinated effort over the last 6-12 months to keep MSRP's high.

I don’t think it was coordinated at all. It is desperation. They rely on dozens of third parties who in turn rely on piles of obsolete technology nobody wants to produce anymore. Someone has to bear the cost of paying off this technical debt.

I don’t think they could make their lower end vehicles and still make a profit or even break even so they just stopped making them. But there is a huge market here for these vehicles. They were ecstatic when Tesla raised their prices. Probably threw a little party. Huge relief. Now with the IRA rebates and consumer sentiment looking for EVs, Tesla isn’t just other EVs and luxury cars, they will be smashing cars like the Camry and the Accord. It’s going to be incredibly difficult to keep selling $35k+ ICE sedans, wagons, and compact SUVs.

If Tesla does get their low price vehicle out sometime in the next 18 months it just going to be ugly. When people see a better vehicle for less money, they will defer a purchase.

they are going to make EV's so money losing that some brands will rethink electrification all together and just accept ICE/Hybrid as their only route. moving on.... I cannot speak to the European/Asian consumer, but I think so long as Tesla doesnt go back to 6+ months lead time, they are going to ruin the traditional market much faster now.

This would be a terrible choice. Tesla is going to keep moving down market and releasing increasingly affordable vehicles. Most technology investments take years to pay off and they simply don’t have 4-5 years of breathing room.

4. Are we sure there are still supply chain challenges? I think this is a remarkably convenient crutch for legacy to hobble on for anything but cell supply.

These guys built extremely fragile systems reliant on too many other vendors and lack the expertise to insource now. Yeah, I do think it could be supply chain issues. The vendors they rely on built systems using parts almost nobody makes anymore and nobody wants to pay to replace it. (And the auto companies can’t afford to)

I have been pumped for this earnings call for months, but now I am brushing this off as the appetizer till the world sees Q1/Q2 results and defecates themselves in disbelief.

Likewise. Though I’m still a bit cautious. It’s been a bad year for getting excited about earnings calls.

 

[traxila]

Problem is that places like NYC are where robotaxis make the most sense, super dense urban centres where many people don’t even own vehicles. You could have a large fleet of robotaxis operating 24/7 shuttling people around autonomously, and even fewer people would need to own vehicles.

Robotaxis make less sense in less-densely populated areas, and robotaxi revenue in rural Georgia will not be the same as expected Robotaxi revenue in NYC. The impacts will be most significant in the most dense, most complex cities and driving environments.

The problem is the drivers. If all cars were Robotaxis, everything would be fine.

 

[Dave EV]

After teaching a phrase "DEMÄÄÄND problem" I'd like to introduce you our next topic: "BRÄÄÄND DÄMAGE".

Please, repeat after me: "BRÄÄÄND! BÄÄÄD!" /s

"Brand Finance is an independent brand valuation and strategy consultancy, and it has helped clients quantify the financial value of their respective brands since 1996. As per the firm’s most recent rankings, Tesla is currently ranked 9th among the World’s Top 25 Most Valuable Brands. For comparison, Tesla was ranked 28th place in last year’s rankings."

Tesla up 19 spots in 2023 World's Top 25 Most Valuable Brands rankings

Tesla is currently ranked 9th among the World's Top 25 Most Valuable Brands. The company was previously ranked 28th.

www.teslarati.com

I honestly did not spend much time trying to figure out how "Brand Finance" calculates "Brand Value", but I would have to guess that they simply significantly changed the potential market addressable by Tesla.

But for those using this as an argument that Elon hasn't affected brand outlook, this key quote was omitted above (emphasis mine):

“Other brands may be getting into gear to compete with the pre-eminent EV producer, but the public still sees Tesla as significantly more innovative and sustainable in Brand Finance’s Global Brand Equity Monitor study, a fact that outweighs the latest headlines about Tesla’s mercurial CEO,” Brand Finance noted in its report.

They clearly note that Elon has affected the brand - but other factors have outweighed it.

All of us shareholders have been left with undervalued portfolios as a result.

 

[S3XY]

Lie much? Anyone familiar with Tesla's KNOWS that they are constantly evolving. From month to month they are NEVER built the same.

Do you have proof that the CT with structural pack is not happening? Source please.

Dent = straight to junkyard? You are an idiot and clearly have no idea how a car like this is built. You replace the affected panel (and don't even have to paint!!!)


Take your drivel elsewhere, your garbage won't pass the sniff test here.

Don't feed the trolls. They live off the rage they cause in others because they have no one to converse with normally in real life. Everything he posts is an attempt to cause a reaction. Better to just laugh at the ignorance or weak attempts to try to piss you off.

 

[SmokyPeat]

First… what a great post @phoggy123

Likewise. Though I’m still a bit cautious. It’s been a bad year for getting excited about earnings calls.

It's a new year! I'm more than happy to put 2022 behind us.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I honestly did not spend much time trying to figure out how "Brand Finance" calculates "Brand Value", but I would have to guess that they simply significantly changed the potential market addressable by Tesla.

But for those using this as an argument that Elon hasn't affected brand outlook, this key quote was omitted above (emphasis mine):


They clearly note that Elon has affected the brand - but other factors have outweighed it.

All of us shareholders have been left with undervalued portfolios as a result.

Agreed. It simply narrowed the available market for consumer purchases.

I had a neighbor ready to get a Tesla. She now adamantly refuses and will wait and pay more for Mercedes to get their EQB to market.

I'd expect that's an example of a lifetime customer loss right there. And she's not gonna be the only one.

That'd be ok if there were all kinds of far-right folks flocking to Tesla in support of Elon... alas, I don't think they will be giving up their oil burning half ton pickups any time soon. I'd settle for them just not parking in the supercharger stalls with them.

 

[Gigapress]

Worth a watch. Cory with Munro talking about Tesla's price cuts, margin impact, and some rough ideas about CyberTruck margins.

TL;DW - Cybertruck margins ~37% once ramped (subject to change).

Great video. Lots of good info and very little fluff. I took some notes and thought I’d share here.

Spoiler: Notes

Tesla removing cost over time but some of that offset by adding other features. E.g. Heat pump costs more than superbottle system with resistive heaters but more efficient and better customer value

$35k estimated cost of long range AWD 3 in 2018 (not inflation adjusted)

SR LFP 3 costs thousands less, maybe $31k

Front drive module costs well over $1500​

​

Front motor is induction so cheaper because no magnets in rotor. Also rotor and stator are smaller​

​

Cheaper power electronics bc silicon instead of silicon carbide and also depopulated (fewer components)​

​

No front half-shaft​

Tesla does LOTS of standardization. Break from industry norm of using fewer parts for lower-tier versions. It’s a trade off and Corey believes Tesla has picked a better plan. Uses common components across all vehicles. Even the Plaid powertrain uses the same inverters as the 3, and a couple of the motors are the same too. Shared gearbox, etc. This strategy carries the risk of a major recall affecting the entire fleet. However EV reliability (low heat, vibration, friction) makes this a better plan than it was with ICE architecture. This also indicates Tesla has very high confidence in their component reliability.

Other companies catching up faster than Sandy’s opinion Tesla 7-1 years ahead. Corey thinks 3-5. EV startups actually doing better than most people realize in some areas of technology, including Faraday Future and Lucid. However, the startups are taking too long to actually deploy tech in customer deliveries. Also Corey acknowledges that we don’t know what major upgrades Tesla has ready for next gen platform.

Cost of all FSD hardware is about $2k. Tesla really wants the data collection and ability to upgrade software in the future if autonomy works out. Could significantly improve margins without this. Tesla has foregone about $1B to $4B of cumulative net income thus far by putting this on all cars. No other OEM would do this. Tesla playing the long game.

CyberSUV will be relatively easy derivative of Cybertruck. (As I would’ve expected but good to hear from industry expert who would know better than I would)

More than 20% margins on average still achievable at new prices in Corey’s estimation

 

[jw934]

Chinese video channel tested 6 cars for ADAS, Nov 1, 2022

YouTube Link

In the second episode of "DCar Competition E", the six cars were given a comprehensive test of their driving assistance ability under 10 road conditions that simulate daily urban commuting.

BYD Han passed 1 of 10 tests
BYD Seal passed 2 of 10
Tesla Model 3, which was equipped with the FSD option, passed with a perfect score.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Wyoming's plan to ban EVs by 2035 completely collapses

Wyoming's plan to ban EV sales by 2035 fell through just a few days after gaining relatively no support from several groups.

www.teslarati.com

SJ4 essentially fell out of relevance and died in committee on Monday after the Wyoming Dealership Association, Democratic state reps, and the Wyoming Outdoor Council pushed back against the plan, The Register reported.

 

[spacerfc]

I honestly did not spend much time trying to figure out how "Brand Finance" calculates "Brand Value", but I would have to guess that they simply significantly changed the potential market addressable by Tesla.

But for those using this as an argument that Elon hasn't affected brand outlook, this key quote was omitted above (emphasis mine):


They clearly note that Elon has affected the brand - but other factors have outweighed it.

No they didn't, that sentence simply means despite constant media attacks against Elon, Tesla brand is still doing well, it is by no means showing "Elon has affected the brand".

For starters, even if "latest headlines about Tesla’s mercurial CEO" is a factor affecting Tesla brand, that is media's doing, has nothing to do with Elon himself.

Second, they didn't actually show "latest headlines about Tesla’s mercurial CEO" is a factor affecting brand value. All they're saying is that Tesla brand value is doing well even with these headlines. You can't conclude that these headlines have a negative effect on Tesla's brand value based this sentence, because an equally plausible hypothesis is that these headlines have zero effect or even a positive effect on Tesla's brand value, there's simply no data in the report to support any of these hypothesis.

 

[Ogre]

Wyoming's plan to ban EVs by 2035 completely collapses

Wyoming's plan to ban EV sales by 2035 fell through just a few days after gaining relatively no support from several groups.

www.teslarati.com

SJ4 essentially fell out of relevance and died in committee on Monday after the Wyoming Dealership Association, Democratic state reps, and the Wyoming Outdoor Council pushed back against the plan, The Register reported.

View attachment 897354

Was never a serious measure. Was just posturing to get press.

 

[MC3OZ]

Thanks. Yah I saw those. I guess I’m referring more to complete corridors like to Guad and el DF. Or down the coast to Maz and PV.

And I mean comprehensive corridors with superchargers every 200 kilometers.

And of course down the baja eventually.

Thanks.

It is a reasonable guess that sales drive Supercharger, Delivery and Service expansion.

Still plenty of places in Australia where Supercharging needs expansion, but the needs of most current customers are fairly well covered.

I am expecting that Model Y sales will be enough trigger the opening up of a service centre near here and a Tesla staff ember confirmed that one is coming.

A compact Gen3 model would sell well in Mexico, IMO well enough to trigger the kind of expansion you are hoping for.

As vehicle production volumes ramp up so must Supercharger installations.

 

[AndrewZ]

The problem is the drivers. If all cars were Robotaxis, everything would be fine.

I would love to see people get 20+ FSD Beta vehicles into a city block all running the software at the same time and each recording what happens, crossing paths with one another across different routes, etc. That would be such a fun experiment, and I’m not aware of even two Beta testers getting together to attempt something like this.

 

[jabloomf1230]

The problem is the drivers. If all cars were Robotaxis, everything would be fine.

Or if the future was like that portrayed in the movie, The Fifth Element, where taxis flew.

As has been stated, the conundrum with robotaxis is they make operational sense in areas of low and moderate population density, but they make financial sense in high density areas.

 

[FSDtester#1]

I would love to see people get 20+ FSD Beta vehicles into a city block all running the software at the same time and each recording what happens, crossing paths with one another across different routes, etc. That would be such a fun experiment, and I’m not aware of even two Beta testers getting together to attempt something like this.

This has actually been done at least 2 times I am aware of. I have seen 2 YouTube videos of 2 people with FSDb starting at the same place and time and seeing how the cars would perform following each other. The funniest comments from one of the videos were from the following car. He kept making comments about the turn signals coming on and off for no reason. The vehicles got separated both times due to traffic and lights but overall performed decently. If I can find one or both of those videos I will post. I think they are a few months old.

Edit: I did receive the latest beta release today, 10.69.25.2 or 2022.44.30.10
I put about 50 miles on it. Only noticeable differences were it's braking or regen is better coming up to stopped traffic and lights, and it wasn't slowing down on flashing yellow lights or because a car was in the median and about to enter the roadway. I have 20k plus miles on beta so I can be picky!

 

[saniflash]

I think there has been a coordinated effort over the last 6-12 months to keep MSRP's high. Legacy Auto aren't necessarily sitting in a room fixing prices but specifically the asian (Toyota, Kia, Hyundai) and US (GM and Ford) etc are building higher end trims with more options that are artificially supply constrained to keep the perception and values higher.

This is 100% accurate, at least for BMW. There were many model variants where you had to order certain extras to actually be able to buy the car/receive it in this lifetime.

I don't know though if it was coordinated across manufacturers or not.

 

[MC3OZ]

Or if the future was like that portrayed in the movie, The Fifth Element, where taxis flew.

As has been stated, the conundrum with robotaxis is they make operational sense in areas of low and moderate population density, but they make financial sense in high density areas.

Robotaxis just need to make sufficient operational and financial sense somewhere to make a start.

FSD will continue to improve until further improvement is not possible.

The areas in cities that are hardest to navigate on surface roads are good candidates for Boring Co tunnels.

A loop from the airport to the CBD would be a good candidate for a tunnel section at the CBD end, and perhaps at the airport end, but some parts of the journey could be on surface streets.

Outer suburbs in big cities, Robotaxis should work fine, what is mostly needed are tunnels to bypass/access the high density sections.

Travelling home late a night to the outer suburbs in big cities should stack up a a financial proposition, taxis are expensive, Uber drivers may be reluctant to take the fare or expensive, public transport patchy,

 

[Surfer of Life]

Looks like something out of a cartoon movie. Do they have a tie in with a new Disney Cars movie?

Well, BMW certainly seems to have their priorities in order, huh?