Unsure... that's on the order of 60 square feet. I suppose if the entire roof (no glass roof), hood, and trunk had high efficiency cells, you might close, but that seems like a pretty significant claim for something like a car to be able to generate.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
So maybe the third row is simply not visible in the frame.
I don’t know when this video was taken but if this is the competition, I can see why Elon said he can’t see second place even with a telescope.
LiveLong&Profit
Member
ChatGPT is getting a lot of use and attention.
For many it is an iPhone moment wrt what AI can do.
I wonder how it will affect the way people think about what tasks are possible for an AI to do.
The next step is generalizing from the text and picture domain to other tasks: So, if an AI can answer a lot of user questions effortlessly and also write an essay or a thesis very well, what other tasks do we need to consider fair game?
Then at some point driving comes to mind as a valuable skill to automate.
The follow-up question are: Which company has the best training data and the best data pipeline? Which company can scale their data collection in a way that is not too expensive? Which company is vertically integrated for gathering and using data to build its own driver AI?
And finally: Can AI be generalized from specific physical tasks like driving to more general tasks like 'doing something useful' in the physical world?
If yes, which company is currently building robots?
For many it is an iPhone moment wrt what AI can do.
I wonder how it will affect the way people think about what tasks are possible for an AI to do.
The next step is generalizing from the text and picture domain to other tasks: So, if an AI can answer a lot of user questions effortlessly and also write an essay or a thesis very well, what other tasks do we need to consider fair game?
Then at some point driving comes to mind as a valuable skill to automate.
The follow-up question are: Which company has the best training data and the best data pipeline? Which company can scale their data collection in a way that is not too expensive? Which company is vertically integrated for gathering and using data to build its own driver AI?
And finally: Can AI be generalized from specific physical tasks like driving to more general tasks like 'doing something useful' in the physical world?
If yes, which company is currently building robots?
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
I don't believe there is any tax credit for the S or X based on their price - can you indicate what portion of the law exempts leases from the MSRP limit?
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Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
It falls under the commercial vehicle section of the law which was meant for business to get the credit. (Same portion that the Semi gets a the larger tax credit.) The treasury is basically saying a lease makes it a commercial vehicle. This article lays it out pretty clearly. The credit goes to the company leasing the vehicle, not the user.
Biden admin quietly adds workaround, making pricey sports cars eligible for EV tax credits
The Biden administration released guidance Thursday showing that any electric vehicle would still be eligible for tax credits if leased despite the strict requirements for purchases.
www.foxbusiness.com
Section from article.
For example, the Bentley Bentayga Hybrid SUV — the starting price of which is about $167,000, according to Car and Driver — is eligible for a $7,500 commercial clean vehicles credit if leased under the Treasury Department's guidance.
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
It falls under the commercial vehicle section of the law which was meant for business to get the credit. (Same portion that the Semi gets a the larger tax credit.) The treasury is basically saying a lease makes it a commercial vehicle. This article lays it out pretty clearly. The credit goes to the company leasing the vehicle, not the user.
Biden admin quietly adds workaround, making pricey sports cars eligible for EV tax credits
The Biden administration released guidance Thursday showing that any electric vehicle would still be eligible for tax credits if leased despite the strict requirements for purchases.
Section from article.
For example, the Bentley Bentayga Hybrid SUV — the starting price of which is about $167,000, according to Car and Driver — is eligible for a $7,500 commercial clean vehicles credit if leased under the Treasury Department's guidance.
Assuming this actually works, every premium EV will be sold as a lease, which is silly and completely guts the entire intent of having a MSRP cap
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Yes, the historical use of the phrase "demand problem" is that it's a problem. For example, if it costs $10 to make an item in high volumes but you can only sell those volumes if you lower the price to $8, then that's a demand problem. Maybe they could fix their demand problem by advertising the product, bringing the cost per item to 11$ if that would allow them to sell full production at $12 per item. Maybe not, it depends upon the specific circumstance.
Tesla has a lot of demand levers as you mentioned and the most powerful one is their superior pricing power. In the auto market, sales are very sensitive to price. I've written about this right here many times but I'm repeating it yet again because it seems there are a number of people who don't understand just how sensitive auto sales are to price, especially at the price ranges Tesla has designed their high-volume models around. As the price is lowered, the addressable market expands dramatically, and new demand is unleashed. Tesla has tremendous demand for their products by people who cannot reasonably afford the price.
It is utter foolishness or FUD to talk as if Tesla has a demand problem when their auto margins are 3 to 7 times that of traditional automakers which are Tesla's biggest competitors, and when Tesla's EV "competitors" have margins hovering around zero. It's non-sensical because of course Tesla is going to adjust prices higher or lower to absorb natural variations in demand. That's not a problem, that's how it works. It's only a demand problem when you no longer have any pricing power left. Had Tesla not raised the prices in response to unprecedented demand, they wouldn't have had to lower them.
This phrase was first applied to Tesla in the context of people not wanting electric cars. The idea that was presented was that as soon as Tesla has sold to a few rich and rabid environmentalists, they would run out of new buyers willing to pay six figures for an electric car. Tesla has now sold hundreds of thousands of cars in the six-figure range.
Multiple times a year since 2012, the TSLAQ types and Wall Street analysts re-introduce the notion that Tesla has saturated the market and is developing a demand problem. I get it, people are gullible to fear tactics like this, but when margins are approaching 30% of the cost of the car, it's obviously false. Remember, pricing is how you match production to demand, it's only a problem if you run out of pricing power. Prices will go up and down. You could identify a real demand problem if Tesla constantly lowered prices and the demand was not responding, such that had to keep lowering prices and were running out of room to so. That has not happened and yet the same Chicken Little types continue to discuss "demand issues" as if it's a real and important topic of the day. The only thing that's real here is that demand and pricing are inexorably linked and, with the most pricing power in the industry, Tesla is the last manufacturer to run into a demand problem.
Legacy auto has a long history of selling early and mid-production at good margins but it's not unusual for them to get rid of the remaining inventory as the year draws to a close at cost, or even a loss if you count all the incentives and advertising to move the end of the year inventory. That's because they are competing with equally inefficient competitors, and everyone wants higher volumes and demand is highly sensitive to pricing. Tesla sales are eating into those sales because Tesla is offering new car buyers more value for their dollar. And there is still a lot of eating to be had as is evidenced by their far superior pricing power. Legacy auto has no significant pricing power left.
Even more repulsive are the people who push the idea that not only does Tesla have a demand problem, but it's also caused by Elon's Tweets. Really? Softer demand is the natural result of the economy flirting with recession and people feeling poorer with their retirement accounts declining and worries about their financial futures. People who believe that narrative need to realize that lack of money and lack of confidence is what's driving less robust demand for Tesla, not Mr. Tweet. Money matters. This should be obvious to even the biggest dimwit because the entire auto market is depressed. Is Elon responsible for that too? Actually he is, but not in the way these people believe. It's like a religion, people who think the man who made Tesla great is somehow a net negative for Tesla demand. Elon is one of Tesla's primary driver of sales beyond the products themselves.
People who call pricing adjustments, at these margin levels, a "demand problem" are either trying to harm Tesla (or TSLA) or they simply don't understand how the auto business works. And Tesla is not resting on their laurels, they are constantly working to prevent Tesla from becoming demand limited in the future because Tesla doesn't get to 20 million vehicles per year without offering even more value than they do currently. Prices need to continue to come down while the value offered needs to continually rise. Tesla gets that. That's why they have front and rear gigacastings for the Model Y, project Highland for the Model 3, and it's why the Cybertruck uses such innovative construction. It's also why Tesla, an "auto company", is perfecting pilot production of the 4680 cells. Tesla is focused like a laser on offering ever-increasing value, not as a reaction to a "demand problem" but because they know that demand problems are not compatible with the kind of success they want to achieve. With only 1.8% of the global light vehicle market and 3.9% of the US market (2022 figures) no other major manufacturer can prevent Tesla from continuing to eat into the sales.
Legacy auto has demand problems, not Tesla. Yet, I haven't seen a single article in the automotive or investment media about how Ford's most important cash cow, the F-150, has a demand problem while the media is full of stories about Tesla's alleged demand problems. It's a false narrative to hide who really has serious demand problems. This is what a demand problem looks like:
F-series sales in the US
2017 896,764
2018 909,330
2019 896,526
2020 787,372
2021 726,003
2022 653,957
This is what a demand problem doesn't look like:
Tesla vehicle sales in the US
2017 50,067
2018 197,517
2019 195,125
2020 292,902
2021 301,998
2022 536,069
If you want to show us how gullible you are, all you need to do is explain that F-150 sales have declined 4 years in a row due to supply issues. Because that's what they have been telling us, and the media laps it up like good little lap dogs. Tesla tells them they have strong demand, and all the media can talk about are Tesla's "demand problems".
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insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Tesla's demand problem is a mirage created by the media. Even I have bought into it and wondered myself, at times, over the last quarter. TMC has offered insightful commentary to the contrary and I am thankful. Between the econ 101 posts here, Tesla's known high margins and Wednesdays conference call, I think I'm good for awhile.
I hope they keep with tradition and call it "Airplane mode"
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Toyoda stepped down as President or UP to Chairman? I'm not sure how the different roles work, especially in a Japanese company of Toyota's size. Maybe his new role is ceremonial (I get the impression he loves being feted) or maybe he can block innovation more effectively as Chairman or just buy his luddite policies extra time.
We'll see, I just wanted to raise the possibility that Akio Toyoda's negative influence may not be over. Either way, it doesn't stop Electric Vehicles, but can change the rate of adoption, government support, political lobbying, advertising money/media coverage. THAT can affect Tesla and Electric Vehicle adoption.
By the way, I don't know the answer, but it seems to me that Prius/Hybrid success came from a period before Akio gained power, and Takeshi Uchiyamada - Wikipedia ("father of the Prius") was the Chairman until Akio. This probably doesn't warrant a lot of discussion (and I won't clog the thread), but something to think about in terms of Toyota's future influences on government policies etc which may then influence Tesla and $TSLA indirectly.
Either way, I think Tesla has forced this action on Akio.
From Wikipedia
Do we know where these cells were supposed to go? Presumably LG didn't build a factory with no-one lined up to purchase their product?
If other OEMs are not meeting their forecast cell usage we could end up seeing a flood of cells from othe cell manufacturers hitting the US market from LG/SK innovation et. al. That could be particularly good for the stationary storage ramp.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Oh no, a flood of cells after a drought that led conventional OEMs to imagine less Electric Vehicle adoption than was possible.
Who might be best placed to absorb high volumes at good prices? Having multiple energy products such as cars, lorries and storage would be helpful.
Being agile and adaptable would be good - perhaps "innovative" might be a good description.
Who might be prepared to up volume around this time?
[maniacal laughter ensues]
Mostly likely scenario is that these 2170 cells for the Semi or Austin Model Y.
Or possibly 4680 cells for Austin Model Y.
Either way the likely end result is supporting the Austin Model Y ramp.
Hard to say if some other car company was scheduled to get the cells, Rivian and perhaps Lucid use 2170s.
It says the LG battery factory is proposed, so perhaps there was no other company that was supposed to get the cells.
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From today's Telegraph
"But he is probably best known as an increasingly outspoken critic of the electric car revolution - something that may have ultimately cost him his job. A recent outburst, in which he claimed to be part of a “silent majority” in the car industry questioning whether electric vehicles are the only way forward, made him an instant poster boy for the sceptics."
"The point that he seems to have missed is that to a large extent he is fighting a battle that has already been lost."
"Toyoda has stood his ground, refusing to develop a vast range of pure electric models that would enable it to compete with Elon Musk’s Tesla"
"But he is probably best known as an increasingly outspoken critic of the electric car revolution - something that may have ultimately cost him his job. A recent outburst, in which he claimed to be part of a “silent majority” in the car industry questioning whether electric vehicles are the only way forward, made him an instant poster boy for the sceptics."
"The point that he seems to have missed is that to a large extent he is fighting a battle that has already been lost."
"Toyoda has stood his ground, refusing to develop a vast range of pure electric models that would enable it to compete with Elon Musk’s Tesla"
I assume there is still no option to buy after lease is over?
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
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