Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Of course S&P has already done that. Moody's may be waiting for Elon to hire a new CEO to run Twitter. Many were hoping this would be accomplished by the end of January. That's now.

1) Not that easy to find the right person..
2) Does it matter except to those who want to complain?
2) Elon has always prioritized has time between companies as the required.

 

[keydiver]

I wanted to revisit this with a bit of information.

I got a quote from a dealer for PowerWalls (without Solar). It is expensive ... ~ $20k for 1 Power wall and $34k for 2.

Wow! I had 3 Powerwall 2's installed for <$25,000. And, I've been telling everyone that solar should be just a little over $2/watt after Federal tax credit.

 

[MP3Mike]

Should we be expecting any news from Moody’s soon?

No.

Last time they upgraded Tesla to Ba1 was a year ago on January 24, 2022
Now that the 10k is out they should have enough info to upgrade to something more realistic…

And when they did that, they made it very clear that they wanted to see Tesla increase their product range before they would give them another upgrade. So we might see an upgrade from them after the Cybertruck starts shipping. (Though it is possible they will give an upgrade earlier if Tesla announces a smaller car and/or commercial vehicles during the March 1st investor day.)

 

[Singuy]

I wanted to revisit this with a bit of information.

I got a quote from a dealer for PowerWalls (without Solar). It is expensive ... ~ $20k for 1 Power wall and $34k for 2. The dealer sells other batteries too (LG, until Bolt fires, Generac etc). They said the prices are similar. They count equipment/install costs as 60/40, which makes the entire system quite expensive. But this would give automatic switchover and good support. The install costs are probably higher in my area too. BTW, 1 Power wall + 6 kW solar is $40k. ps : I think these systems make sense with solar and/or where you can use TOD pricing to recoup some of the cost. As pure backups for power outage a handful of times a year they are very expensive. BTW, a similar gas generator costs about $10k to install.

I decided to go with EcoFLow (2x EcoFlow Delta Pro) that I could connect to the panel with a simple power inlet & interlock kit. No automatic cut-over but simple enough. Total cost is ~ $7k for 7.2kWh system. Good for my use case of perhaps 5 times a year of power outages. I could also go DIY, build my own system using battery kits for cheaper.

So to conclude - there are clearly two markets
A. Full contractor sell/install with system warranty
B. More of a DIY approach

With A, Tesla PowerWalls are quite competitive. These are bigger budget, costly systems. Slight cost advantage of no-name Chinese LiFPO is trumped by brand value and support.

In DIY market, obviously LiFPO and Chinese brands are the king. Tesla will not be able to compete in this market - not would they like to.

Tesla.com is showing 23900 for 2 powerwalls without any solar bundle discount for Central FL. Seems more expensive than before. I remember 2 power walls being under 20k.

 

[Max Plaid]

Just received email...

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Who will be the new TWTR CEO?
Russia/Ukraine conflict Elon has weighed in again today
Tesla Investor Day Discussion 1 month from tomorrow!

 

[Dutchie]

When was the last time volume was at a normal, meaning around the average number? I am surprised, day in day out, week in week out volume is so high. What does that all mean?

 

[matejpi]

I think the point being made is different. Here in the UK, small cars are a desirable thing because our roads are so narrow. We dont want a smaller car because we think that will save us money. We want a smaller car because a smaller car is WAY more practical than a bigger one.
I really think a lot of people in the US just do not realize how narrow UK and other European countries roads can be. We laid out all our cities in a time of horseback transport, and it shows.

I spent £73k on a fully loaded performance model Y. If there had been an option to shrink that same car by 10% in every direction, I'd have jumped at it. Even paid extra.

Hm... I think that many cities in Europe went toward cities without cars. In such cities public transport and bikes are the preferred and optimal way to commute. As it should be in all cities around the globe. Train + subway + bikes ftw.

I recommend series about strong towns from YouTube channel "Not just bikes".

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJp5q-R0lZ0_FCUbeVWK6OGLN69ehUTVa

That is why I don't think that FSD will solve traffic problems.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla.com is showing 23900 for 2 powerwalls without any solar bundle discount for Central FL. Seems more expensive than before. I remember 2 power walls being under 20k.

That is just the equipment, right ? Installation would be extra.

 

[capster]

I was gonna correct you on the glass roof as it was put into every m3 to make assembly easier for entrance from the top .... but with structural pack and seats-on-pack Tesla won't need the glassroof for assembly reasons ... mhhhh

I’ve always thought Tesla uses a glass roof to give a little more headroom compared to lined roof. The skateboard raises the floor and takes up a bit of height in the interior. Since raising the roof both increases drag and affects the aesthetics of the car, here’s another place where they’ve squeezed out a little bit more than everyone else.

I’m inclined to think the Model 2 or whatever will still have a glass roof. But it may be that Tesla’s car technology has advanced to the point where they might use a lined roof.

 

[EVNow]

Wow! I had 3 Powerwall 2's installed for <$25,000. And, I've been telling everyone that solar should be just a little over $2/watt after Federal tax credit.

This is without taking into account the tax credits - that should be some 30% off.

 

[Snerruc]

Tesla.com is showing 23900 for 2 powerwalls without any solar bundle discount for Central FL. Seems more expensive than before. I remember 2 power walls being under 20k.

I periodically check this. They were quoting me $100,000 for solar roof and forcing 3 powerwalls. They are now quoting $80,000 and you can delete the powerwalls payback would be improved to about 30 years. Since I buy solar energy from FPL, this is hopeless. You might see if FPL sells solar in your area. Down in Curt Rentz’s area the whole town is 100% solar, I think from FPL. Never lost power when Ian went directly over them.

 

[Todd Burch]

CNBC - 1:01 pm EST:
General Motors doesn’t expect significant U.S. production of EVs until second half of year

Second half of *which* year?

 

[Marc_K_inNJ]

No.

And when they did that, they made it very clear that they wanted to see Tesla increase their product range before they would give them another upgrade. So we might see an upgrade from them after the Cybertruck starts shipping. (Though it is possible they will give an upgrade earlier if Tesla announces a smaller car and/or commercial vehicles during the March 1st investor day.)

Maybe the ramping up of the Mega Packs can satisfy the increase of product range…

 

[Curt Renz]

The Street - this afternoon:
Tesla Hires Amid Wave of Tech Layoffs

 

[GOVA]

Bear in mind that wind-resistance squares with speed, and these "city cars" will be used more for, erm, cities where average speeds are way less

And regardless of the M3 efficiency, it's just too big for many folks - we just traded my wife's M3P to Tesla, we offered it to a friend for the same price - which was an absolute bargain as the Tesla offer was very, very low, but she decided against it because she thinks it's "too big". This is the reality in Europe, Teslas are just too big

Current EU Tesla sales look fine to me. Folks grab MY as well.

Tesla.com is showing 23900 for 2 powerwalls without any solar bundle discount for Central FL. Seems more expensive than before. I remember 2 power walls being under 20k.

Powerwall is newer now. It is 12K a pop.

 

[Hiline]

Hm... I think that many cities in Europe went toward cities without cars. In such cities public transport and bikes are the preferred and optimal way to commute. As it should be in all cities around the globe. Train + subway + bikes ftw.

I recommend series about strong towns from YouTube channel "Not just bikes".

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJp5q-R0lZ0_FCUbeVWK6OGLN69ehUTVa

That is why I don't think that FSD will solve traffic problems.

The non-car solution sounds wonderful until heat waves hit the cities and everyone tries to bike and walk in 90-100 degree sunny weather.

 

[Singuy]

That is just the equipment, right ? Installation would be extra.

This seems to be the bottom line prices.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla driver charged with attempted murder after driving family off California cliff​

NBC - this morning:

 

[Rashomon]

<pedant_mode>

Cd (Drag Coefficient) is not dependent on size, but rather shape. It is the "effective" drag of a given shape as compared the total surface presented by the object. As it is a dimensionless value, it's possible for a larger object to have a better Cd, yet present more overall drag.

CdA is the effective drag presented as a function of the total surface area multiplied by the Cd. Two objects can have the same Cd but differing CdA due to size.

So, there's no real correlation of Cd to size. There is with CdA, assuming the Cd is the same.

On Edit: This is how the Semi has a better Cd than a Bugatti Veyron

</>

<pedant reply mode>

I was iterating on CFD models of World Superbike motorcycles and testing vehicles in a wind tunnel when the Tesla Model S was still a gleam in Van Holthousen's eye. Yes, Cd, is a dimensionless number. So is the fineness ratio, which is worse for smaller cars. Also, the passenger space doesn't change all that much from smaller to bigger sedans, only increasing in length and perhaps height and width slightly. So a tiny car tends to be a block defined by the passenger space, without much room to streamline the nose and tail. Look at the very aerodynamic Mercedes EQXX, and notice how much the tail extends beyond the rear seating area. You can't do that on a 4-seat 4.2m car.

But as a practical aerodynamicist, I actually dislike talking about Cd's as they're often used to mislead. A good Cd on a Hummer stills means very large drag. The important number is the effective front area, CdA, which is what needs to be minimized. On a car that has a lot of length, you can do that with a carefully curvaceous nose that doesn't push the air much outward of the vehicle's maximum frontal area, and by converging the tail surfaces gently over a long distance, and thus achieve a low CdA by lowering Cd while A may remain large. On a small car, it's much more of a balancing act, requiring a decent Cd and a smaller A to get a similar or slightly better CdA result.