I read that tweet as looooooooong term investors (aka: don't expect any kind of positive market reaction after investor day or "status quo" for all of Tesla's "* Day" events).
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I think part of it is that this is his entire life. It's all amazing and exciting to him, even more than for us.
Also possible that he is seeing the end game in his mind somewhere and it's amazing, but he can only show us the first two steps and it's just that we aren't sure what's next.
So how many millions should Tesla pay for an Ad that sells 400 cars?
And that might only be accurate for just over two weeks. (Once the IRS releases the guidance on battery/mineral contents the Model 3 RWD may not qualify for the $7,500 tax credit any longer.)
So, Tesla needs to make and deliver as many Model 3 RWDs as they can over the next few weeks. (Which they are accomplishing by small $500 price cuts as needed.)
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
It means there is outsized buying. TSLA currently is about 1.5% of the S&P 500 by weight, but it's shares traded ~15x that in volume last week compared to the broader market. Some groups, likely Retail and clever whales, are hoovering up cheap shares.
S&P 500 Companies - S&P 500 Index Components by Market Cap
400 inventory listings for specific builds at individual locations omitting duplicates. We don't know how many physical vehicles it represents, but I think it's safe to assume we haven't seen $1k of price cuts on the 3 RWD in the last 10 days ($500 on 03-Feb and $500 yesterday) over 400 vehicles.
Geez that CNBC video had tons of people just outright guessing. "I would expect the semi to cost..." and "I don't think it can do...".
Patagonia shirt guy was just outright lying. "Unlike Tesla, the competitors have maintenance networks across the country". Uh, hello? Tesla also has a country wide maintenance network! And then he says that a diesel truck has more power than a battery truck. Which is a load of crap (see any diesel truck climbing a hill).
All the battery size specs for Tesla truck competitors were significantly smaller than the Tesla battery and range specs.
The one useful thing I got out of it was that the California air resource board was helping subsidize the whole thing. As was Pepsico to some extent. So don't expect a lot of sales without government support until Tesla can ramp up the Nevada assembly line.
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I now think that one day Tesla might advertise, but the ads will be:-
- Try the Tesla RoboTaxi service, affordable, reliable and timely,
- Test drive a Tesla, and try FSD.
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Yeah, I actually rewound to double check who Patagonia guy was... turns out he's Founder/CEO of Freightwaves. They bill themselves thusly:
"FreightWaves is a price reporting agency (PRA) focused on the global freight market and the leading provider of high-frequency data for the global supply chain. FreightWaves’ price, demand, and capacity data allow customers to benchmark, analyze, monitor, and forecast the global physical economy."
What's more they have revenue from ads:
"The company also offers information and informed context through the logistics industry’s largest media platform. The advertising-supported media business has a team of over 50 full-time journalists and analysts that deliver information through an online website, streaming TV product, and set of podcasts."
So, haven't looked into who buys advertising from them, but I know who doesn't.
Thanks for digging that up. In other words, he is firmly in the pockets of Tesla’s competitors. Big sigh.
larmor
Active Member
Ferrari complements Tesla and Elon-- may be courting Elon for co-development of the Roadster 2.0? With Cybertruck, optimus, FSD, model 2/robotaxi, as well as presumably multiple new battery and car factories needed to reach 20 million target, might not be a bad idea to work with ferrari or mclaren to do all the auto stuff for the roadster...
I feel the line between Reality, Sci-Fi and Madness will be blurred. Even for us used to his long term vision.
Looking forward to it.
navguy12
Active Member
Auto may be a struggle this year: choose which to cut in volume x margin
Meanwhile Tesla has been ramping storage.
Hmm, I wonder what investor day will be focused on...
Both cars and storage IMO.
Storage might be quick, they mostly just need to detail where the raw materials are coming from.
But a detour into Sodium, and even V2G, would not surprise me,
Cars mostly about Highland and Gen3, also HW4 and Cybertruck.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
I sound like a broken record but TSLA and nasdaq composite setting up for a major breakout. Tomorrow’s CPI could be the trigger for major rally. I think we’re headed for $300+
OK. Just watched the CNBC video linked there. Not too terrible in terms of accuracy, also made much of the delays on the Tesla Semi, but their expert made the point that "you give up a lot of power when you switch to electric" and made a vague statement (no numbers) about the huge weight penalty re cargo?
I thought Tesla proved a massive power/acceleration increase over diesel? Also they made an (to me, given CNBC) expected... inference that none of this would even be happening if it weren't for onerous government overreach on the part of feds and California. Ah well, some of it was accurate and it did raise a few good points. One was, will these established companies trust Tesla for their maintenance long term, given that there are other traditional trucking companies making (shorter range) E-trucks?
Comments from drivers were barely mentioned. Apparently they like being able to walk away while it is charging. That was insightful
All that aside, appreciate you posting this.
Krugerrand
Meow
I don’t know what any of those charts mean nor why you believe they represent a breakout. Can you explain it to me like I’m a Borzoi?
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Here’s some Monday night idle speculation:
TSLA monthly and weekly charts show possibly major multi month rally coming
What’s the least likely scenario that nobody is discounting? A huge rally like 2019-2020 or 2012-2013. After what happened over last 15 months or so very few expect TSLA to
up 10X or so to $1000 a share within next 12 to 18 months
Will it happen? I have no idea. If I did I’d be betting
of my portfolio in closer to the money 2025 calls. Obviously, I am not
Because only liars and shysters can accurately predict the future. I am definitely positioned for that possibility with nothing to lose if I am wrong except time
Additional speculation: 19 to 20 months seems to be sweet spot for max profits from bottom to intermediate top so I’m guessing like July-August 2024 to hit $1000 for Tesla stock. Elon could sell in second half 2024
Very, very speculative on my part but better for me to engage in some idle technical fantasies rather than wasting my time watching 1883/1923/Yellowstone
TSLA monthly and weekly charts show possibly major multi month rally coming
What’s the least likely scenario that nobody is discounting? A huge rally like 2019-2020 or 2012-2013. After what happened over last 15 months or so very few expect TSLA to
up 10X or so to $1000 a share within next 12 to 18 monthsWill it happen? I have no idea. If I did I’d be betting
of my portfolio in closer to the money 2025 calls. Obviously, I am notBecause only liars and shysters can accurately predict the future. I am definitely positioned for that possibility with nothing to lose if I am wrong except time
Additional speculation: 19 to 20 months seems to be sweet spot for max profits from bottom to intermediate top so I’m guessing like July-August 2024 to hit $1000 for Tesla stock. Elon could sell in second half 2024
Very, very speculative on my part but better for me to engage in some idle technical fantasies rather than wasting my time watching 1883/1923/Yellowstone
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