Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

It is going to be very difficult for OEMs to not chase remaining ICE profits into bankruptcy...

• Super bowl ads not really promoting any actual EVs you can buy
• GM results on ICE only were pretty good
• Ford results ICE/EV mixed
• Ford stopping F150 Lightning
• Toyota pivoting way too late
• VW spins out Porsche...
• Honda already in deep trouble

the Innovators dilemma is playing out in real time for legacy OEMs

Need to start a Legacy Deadpool. And perhaps a separate Startup Deadpool.

GM's results only looked good because 2021 was truly horrible.

To their credit, there were fewer Super Bowl adverts from auto makers this year. They realized that spending big bucks advertising cars they can't sell was a waste.

 

[larmor]

CNBC - this afternoon:
Ford halts production and shipments of its electric F-150 Lightning due to potential battery issue

"Ford is unaware of any incidents or issues associated with the potential battery issue, Bergg said. There is no stop-sale for vehicles already on dealer lots, meaning dealers can continue to sell vehicles they have on hand."
Newsflash, EVs require batteries and Ford just realized it does not have enough batteries.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel now sees a stronger economy post-CPI | CNBC Television

"This is a process that the FED has to let go through, rather than stomping on the Market".​

 

[StealthP3D]

Digging into this, couple things struck me:

1) this is "data labelers" per all reports, trying to unionize
2) apparently Tesla has like 1000 labelers up in the NY GF. Guess they are trying to keep the tax incentives up there. Concerns me about what production rates for solar and supercharger parts might be.

I think the "data labelers" see the writing on the wall. Tesla already had a massive layoff of this group of workers, when auto-labeler for FSD showed considerable improvements. This is probably not a very secure job position.

A careful read of this story will inform that there are at least two employees interested in unionizing. How many more than that, if any, is impossible to say but I think if the movement was popular, that would have been conveyed by the article. As it is, we are left to wonder: Are there more than two?

Or is it just one employee assuming there are others that might join in?

 

[Krugerrand]

UPDATE 1-Tesla workers launch campaign to form union in New York

Tesla Inc workers in New York state said on Tuesday they are launching a campaign to form a union, setting the stage for the latest labor challenge for Chief Executive Elon Musk. In a letter to the electric carmaker's management, the employees announced their plan to unionize with Workers...

finance.yahoo.com

Be careful what you wish for Buffalo workers.

 

[wipster]

Yeah -- most of their ideas seem to be built around the need for human capital to feed the economic engine. IMHO, we shouldn't be feeding humans to the economy. The humans should be in control. Usable bots is a great way to get there.

However, as the economic engine is based upon growth, the population shrinkage might deal a serious blow to it. After all, robots don't buy anything, except electricity.

 

[wipster]

Be careful what you wish for Buffalo workers.

... you might not like what you find...

 

[Krugerrand]

Someone please explain to me Elon's over the top concern with a declining population. Hello!?! Tesla bots anyone...I mean, does he just purposely exclude it from his frame of mind or what? As investors, that's the whole point of being excited that this company is going down this road - Tesla sees the future and knows humanity will need help.

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Wrong thread to discuss, but he does have a point.

 

[Zero CO2]

Yep, and for those wondering why it is not happening as fast as smartphones there is a thing called industry clockspeed. Airplanes being one of the slowest and disk drives being one of the fastest. Auto's being in the middle but definitely on the slower side. The rate of introduction of new products and process in an industry tends to dictate the rate which disruption can progress.

Some background.

Clock speed by Charles H. Fine

Clockspeed by Charles H. Fine introduces new concepts for understanding the forces of competition and making strategic decisions that will determine the destiny of a company or an industry.

reallycreativeideas.com

yup the slow motion train wreck in the automobile case ... not he swift demise in the smartphone case

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hey weren't you a bear on here a couple of years ago?

millisecond pulsar.

 

[Krugerrand]

Except that it won't. That's an extreme extrapolation. People will always have sex. They will have children. They just won't do it at as rapid a rate as they've done before. And the world will find a new equilibrium based on something besides constant expansion.

Except Mother Nature is doing her best to try and kill us off with ever more frequent, viscous climate events that have effects beyond those just dying in collapsed buildings like destroying crops and upsetting growing seasons, and via various adaptable viruses et al…

Additionally, we’re systematically and quite effectively poisoning ourselves and it in turn affecting our long term fertility.

Then we have generation after generation choosing to defer having families later and a current generation that sees no reason to bring children into this disaster.

I’m not even of that generation and a number of close friends chose to not have any children just as I did.

There is a point where the human race can in fact have an extinction event without a giant meteor hitting the planet.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

A careful read of this story will inform that there are at least two employees interested in unionizing. How many more than that, if any, is impossible to say but I think if the movement was popular, that would have been conveyed by the article. As it is, we are left to wonder: Are there more than two?

Or is it just one employee assuming there are others that might join in?

 

[jerry33]

There's a whole school of thought out there that population decline in prosperous nations is going to cause a collapse of globalization, and therefore a crash or our civilization. I don't happen to subscribe to it -- I feel like that sort of thinking ignores the human capacity for innovation and change. But if you look up Peter Zeihan, he lays out his thinking on it pretty well, with a minimum of hyperbole.

As long as people need 2+ jobs to have a decent living, having children is really not an option.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

anyone have plans to date one of these $ makers?

super bullish!?
Tesla com3dy is always a good sign
but this may be also be a sign of population decline

 

[Optimeer]

Today, the European Parliament formally approved the law to effectively ban the sale of new petrol, diesel and e-fuel cars and also van‘s (<3‘500 kg) in the European Union starting in 2035. Hydrogen will not be banned in order to give Toyota, BMW and Mercedes hope.

The current emission target of approx. 119 g/km WLTP for new cars will be lowered by -15 % for 2025 to 2029 (already approved target) and then by -55 % from 2030 to 2034 (sharper target, now formally approved) compared to today‘s emission target. The current target for vans will be lowered by 50 % by 2030. There will be exemptions for example for low volume manufacturers (<10‘000 cars / <22‘000 vans per year until 2035 and <1’000 cars/vans 2035+).

Currently, in a pool, which can contain multiple manufacturer, low emission cars 0 … 50 g/km are counted +100 % (or twice) as a credit. From 2025 to 2029 the credit is lowered to +25 % for cars and to +17 % for vans. This credit system will disappear by 2030. This will lower Tesla‘s profitability starting 2025, however I don‘t think these few 100 Mio USD (my ballpark estimate) per year will matter then.

Also today, the European Commission has proposed new CO2 emissions targets for new heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), compared to 2019 levels: -45% emissions reductions from 2030 - 2034, -65 % emissions reductions from 2035 - 2039, -90 % emissions reductions from 2040. New city buses need to be electric/zero-emission starting 2030.
This proposal is an improvement, since the existing targets were -15 % emissions reductions from 2025 -2029 (will still be in place) and -30 % emissions reductions starting 2030.

The whole regulations are very complex, therefore I can not guarantee that I got every detail right.

In my opinion, these development are an important step to foster acceptance that it’s only a question of time until fossil fuel cars, van‘s and heavy-duty vehicles will disappear. Its good to have these regulations and proposals in place two weeks before the presentation of Master Plan 3 at the investor day, where Elon can answer the question how to handle this transition.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I look forward to a 40 minute flight to New Zealand when we have reached such a flight level.

I took a 40 min flight from Auckland to Los Angles once. But the flight there took a day and a half...

 

[aubreymcfato]

If the birth rate remains insufficient to maintain population the population will continue to fall until it reaches zero. That's the fundamental concern.

I''ve never seen so much ado about nothing. Give young people economical and ecological hope and children will follow.

 

[jerry33]

I''ve never seen so much ado about nothing. Give young people economical and ecological hope and children will follow.

Agreed. Right now they have very little of either.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Securities fraud investigation of Elon's December stock sales.

 

[Krugerrand]

Securities fraud investigation of Elon's December stock sales.

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Oh, ffs! This is why people shouldn’t have children, birthing crooks like this.