Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Investor day could show off a lot of things, but I don't see how we don't see a clear path from today to the goal of 20 million vehicles. That's what WS wants to see.

How do you show that? New factories, battery/mineral supply info, and new model details. Anything else will be seen as "typical Musk fluff".

Retail wants to know how Tesla gets to 20m, I have trouble imagining Wall Street thinks beyond next quarter myself.

This meeting isn't for Wall Street, it's for investors. If it was for Wall Street you'd see:

• Detailed timelines and targets on Cybertruck ramp.
• 2024 production projections by model.
• Launch date for the next 3 vehicles.
• Margin and production estimates for Tesla energy (for the few WS analysts who care).

Can't see Wall Street get excited about 10 year goals or Musk talking about how many tons of lithium they need to source. Their eyes seem to glaze when phrases like battery chemistry come up. They definitely don't believe Robotaxi will affect sales.

 

[EVNow]

How do you show that? New factories, battery/mineral supply info, and new model details. Anything else will be seen as "typical Musk fluff".

I think we'll hear a lot about the "boring" stuff like sustainability.

We will hear about how much battery is needed and how much raw material is needed (and what the gap is). May be some info on how Tesla plans to fill the gap.

Specific model & factory info that the WS crowd wants won't be there for obvious reasons ... so I expect muted reaction from WS.

 

[Stormy24]

Retail wants to know how Tesla gets to 20m, I have trouble imagining Wall Street thinks beyond next quarter myself.

This meeting isn't for Wall Street, it's for investors. If it was for Wall Street you'd see:

• Detailed timelines and targets on Cybertruck ramp.
• 2024 production projections by model.
• Launch date for the next 3 vehicles.
• Margin and production estimates for Tesla energy (for the few WS analysts who care).

Can't see Wall Street get excited about 10 year goals or Musk talking about how many tons of lithium they need to source. Their eyes seem to glaze when phrases like battery chemistry come up. They definitely don't believe Robotaxi will affect sales.

You give them too much credit , a few days outlook is max for Wall Street.

 

[Nocturnal]

I think we'll hear a lot about the "boring" stuff like sustainability.

We will hear about how much battery is needed and how much raw material is needed (and what the gap is). May be some info on how Tesla plans to fill the gap.

Specific model & factory info that the WS crowd wants won't be there for obvious reasons ... so I expect muted reaction from WS.

If so then this whole thing is pointless. We already know that Tesla wants to save the world, and they plan to do so with solar, batteries etc.

Retail wants to know how Tesla gets to 20m, I have trouble imagining Wall Street thinks beyond next quarter myself.

This meeting isn't for Wall Street, it's for investors. If it was for Wall Street you'd see:

• Detailed timelines and targets on Cybertruck ramp.
• 2024 production projections by model.
• Launch date for the next 3 vehicles.
• Margin and production estimates for Tesla energy (for the few WS analysts who care).

Can't see Wall Street get excited about 10 year goals or Musk talking about how many tons of lithium they need to source. Their eyes seem to glaze when phrases like battery chemistry come up. They definitely don't believe Robotaxi will affect sales.

Am I in the minority here that actually wants that info? I don't want to hear a bunch of vague promises and plans. Tesla Youtube has plenty of that.

 

[Ogre]

Am I in the minority here that actually wants that info? I don't want to hear a bunch of vague promises and plans. Tesla Youtube has plenty of that.

No. I’d prefer both myself.

But since we’re not getting the one, I’d still like to hear about the other.

Also, I would much prefer a CEO who thinks about those “vague long term things” and puts those first, then a Mary Barra style Model Count and production target style CEO. The sort of CEO who makes Wall Street happy delivers results like MB.

 

[willow_hiller]

Never paid the board drama much attention, but I'm glad it sounds like it's over:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629226488754245632

 

[insaneoctane]

I was thinking about this as well. I don't think the would-be thief would have any leverage while the adapter is locked inside the charger; and if anyone attempts to steal the adapter while it's locked to the end of the cable, they must have started a charging session to unlock it in the first place, and Tesla would have their credit card on file to charge them the full replacement cost.

That, and stealing the adapter itself wouldn't be too useful if the Tesla App only authenticates non-Tesla sessions on stations that have Magic Dock in the first place. They wouldn't be able to take it to a regular Supercharger and use it.

Seems likely that the magic adapter can be sensed when it's docked or undocked/used. If the last customer completes their charging session and the magic adapter isn't sensed to be docked, you know who to bill...

 

[Oveeus]

My take on investors day is more about the “how” to reach 20m vehicles scale rather than announcing any new model unless such model will be ready to go pronto.

The idea is simple, if they announce a brand new model that’s going to cost less, for consumers who are on a budget and for whom the difference between the new model and existing ones can’t justify the premium, why not just wait instead of ordering existing models?

So, I believe we are going to see further technology or processes advancements that allow production cost of model 3 and Y (highland?) to massively decrease and will pave way for the eventual next new model once everything is in place.

It might also be something to do with the production of cyber truck. The technology will then stepped down to fit smaller vehicles.

Of course, Tesla can very well introduce a model that carries the above said ideology, but it’s instead a model that’s like a bus, minivan or whatever that has nothing to do with model 2. But I just can’t see model 2 being announced unless it’s basically ready to go ASAP.

 

[larmor]

My take on investors day is more about the “how” to reach 20m vehicles scale rather than announcing any new model unless such model will be ready to go pronto.

The idea is simple, if they announce a brand new model that’s going to cost less, for consumers who are on a budget and for whom the difference between the new model and existing ones can’t justify the premium, why not just wait instead of ordering existing models?

So, I believe we are going to see further technology or processes advancements that allow production cost of model 3 and Y (highland?) to massively decrease and will pave way for the eventual next new model once everything is in place.

It might also be something to do with the production of cyber truck. The technology will then stepped down to fit smaller vehicles.

Of course, Tesla can very well introduce a model that carries the above said ideology, but it’s instead a model that’s like a bus, minivan or whatever that has nothing to do with model 2. But I just can’t see model 2 being announced unless it’s basically ready to go ASAP.

Agreed, just going to be about how they increase number of factories and projected number of units in less than 7 years.

 

[EQC_]

This photo of Giga Nevada is dated 2/16/2023, from buildingtesla.com.

Looks like some changes are afoot in that South-West corner...

 

[Thekiwi]

My take on investors day is more about the “how” to reach 20m vehicles scale rather than announcing any new model unless such model will be ready to go pronto.

The idea is simple, if they announce a brand new model that’s going to cost less, for consumers who are on a budget and for whom the difference between the new model and existing ones can’t justify the premium, why not just wait instead of ordering existing models?

So, I believe we are going to see further technology or processes advancements that allow production cost of model 3 and Y (highland?) to massively decrease and will pave way for the eventual next new model once everything is in place.

It might also be something to do with the production of cyber truck. The technology will then stepped down to fit smaller vehicles.

Of course, Tesla can very well introduce a model that carries the above said ideology, but it’s instead a model that’s like a bus, minivan or whatever that has nothing to do with model 2. But I just can’t see model 2 being announced unless it’s basically ready to go ASAP.

Agree.

Tesla management have mentioned the “next generation platform” multiple times in recent earnings calls etc. A more detailed breakdown of the production system for the next gen platform (eg the system that doubles the output vs a similar sized 3/Y production line) is one of the items I expect to be discussed at investor day - rather than exact model unveils with pricing of what will be produced on the system.

I would hope any specific vehicle announcement would either be for vehicles that would not cannibalize and delay demand for existing models (like a bus/van/box truck/tunnel-pod etc) OR a vehicle that is priced higher than the current entry level models (eg a ~$50k AWD long range performance hatchback, a model design that would eventually offer sub-$30k SR RWD models but that fact wouldn’t be mentioned now).

 

[MC3OZ]

Agree.

Tesla management have mentioned the “next generation platform” multiple times in recent earnings calls etc. A more detailed breakdown of the production system for the next gen platform (eg the system that doubles the output vs a similar sized 3/Y production line) is one of the items I expect to be discussed at investor day - rather than exact model unveils with pricing of what will be produced on the system.

I would hope any specific vehicle announcement would either be for vehicles that would not cannibalize and delay demand for existing models (like a bus/van/box truck/tunnel-pod etc) OR a vehicle that is priced higher than the current entry level models (eg a ~$50k AWD long range performance hatchback, a model design that would eventually offer sub-$30k SR RWD models but that fact wouldn’t be mentioned now).

I don't expect a new vechicle reveal, any new product is more likely to be a revised Powerwall design or home HVAC.

However, they will detail Gen3 and how Gen3 will allow EVs to achieve price parity with ICE.

With lower EV prices there will be more demand and raw materials supply needs to keep pace with production volumes. In addition they need to ramp energy storage batteries needing more raw materials.

I don't think Elon will simply map out the volume of raw materials needed, he will detail actions Tesla will take to increase supplies.

The Limiting Factor Investor Day video is very good and IMO is the best prediction we have.

 

[gtrplyr1]

It’s time for a cheaper/smaller car in Asia and Europe … it’s that simple.

Current offerings are great but not so much for countries that need compact cars …

I’m really hoping for that announcement on the 1st but not holding my breath.

Whatever it is, it sounds like a major deal so let’s hope the hype does not outweigh the actual announcement , unfortunately with tesla, that is often the case.

Regardless, I remain long

 

[ZeApelido]

Block him again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629202395736449025

 

[MC3OZ]

It’s time for a cheaper/smaller car in Asia and Europe … it’s that simple.

Current offerings are great but not so much for countries that need compact cars …

I’m really hoping for that announcement on the 1st but not holding my breath.

Whatever it is, it sounds like a major deal so let’s hope the hype does not outweigh the actual announcement , unfortunately with tesla, that is often the case.

Regardless, I remain long

While I agree, this event might not be the right time to reveal a new compact car.

One factor is time, and the length of the presentation., For Master Plan 3, and Gen3 there is likely a lot of information to cover. Some update on Cybertruck and HW4 would be handy.

Reveal a new car at the same time, and the event could drag on too long, or everything needs to be rushed.

The other factor is the new vehicle might detract from the Master Plan 3 message, or the Master Plan 3 message might detract from the new vehicle.

And they probably need new factories to build the new vehicle.

An alternative approach is build new factories, produce some "alpha builds" and do a reveal based on a "dressed up" version of an alpha build.
That is probably a cheaper way to build a vehicle for a reveal, and a small number of the new vehicles can be hidden inside the new factory until it is time for the reveal. The reveal event can be held at the factory where the vehicle is being made, and a tour of the line can even be organised. The new model can be ordered straight after the reveal event, because volume production is not that far away, and pricing is locked in.

The only ones who benefit from knowing what Tesla will be producing in 2-3 years time are the competition. Anyone wanting a new entry level EV isn't likely to wait 2-3 years for a Tesla.

A vehicle might be revealed, but it isn't essential. A reveal doesn't necessarily shorten the timeframe for volume production.

 

[Unpilot]

Never paid the board drama much attention, but I'm glad it sounds like it's over:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629226488754245632

I withdrew mine as well
What a drama queen putz.

 

[Bet TSLA]

This is excellent speculation regarding Investor Day. Well reasoned.

Sections:
00:00 Intro
02:28 What's in a name?
03:51 Assumptions and Goals
05:07 HOLY TERACASTINGS!
05:15 - 1. The bottom line
06:47 - 2. Why Gigacastings won't do
09:15 - 3. Desire moves mountains
12:36 - 4. Ask Moore and Wright
13:55 - 5. Is it pos
14:04 - 6. Is it smart?
14:49 - 7. Seeing is believing
15:41 - 8. The invitation
17:31 - 9. Tesla insider spills the truth!
20:19 - 10. One piece or more?
23:07 - 11. Aluminum or Aluminium?
26:11 - 12. Bullish!
27:47 - 13. Even more bullish!
28:44 - 14. You can help too!
29:40 You won't believe this!

It's well worth watching his earlier video on Project Highland too.

 

[Bouboule]

As a forum reader: I'm really tired of hearing people complain about FSD not being Full self driving, Elon lying, wanting refunds, transfer etc.
As an investor: thank you for the 15k$, complain all you want.

 

[Ogre]

As a forum reader: I'm really tired of hearing people complain about FSD not being Full self driving, Elon lying, wanting refunds, transfer etc.
As an investor: thank you for the 15k$, complain all you want.

It’ll cost $15 for FSD… $8 to complain about it on Twitter.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I hope you're right but I don't see how someone could view this as a breakout ready to happen. I see the share price, in a bear market, coming up to the 200-day and the upper edge of the downward trend line. That tells me retracement is most likely over the next few weeks. Additionally we have a gravity well at about 150. We would need something to overpower these technicals, and if past history is any indication of the future, Investor Day is more likely to trigger a downside slide.

Sure. There is a ton of subjectivity involved in reading stock charts. You may be correct
All I am seeing is tight, high level consolidation with potential for imminent breakout over next few days to weeks
If it doesn’t happen, oh well! Life goes on
Tesla may or may not revisit $180 or $170 or whatever lower prices before checking out $1000+ sometime in the future
In wise words of Jim Morrison:
The future’s uncertain
And the end is always near
It’s crazy how much wrong I’ve been over last 25 years and still alive to tell the tale.
As an aside, here’s a magic formula to make a fortune in stocks: You can be wrong 9 times out of 10 and still have an absolutely incredible portfolio outcome if you don’t lose all your capital and bet big enough and hold long enough just that one time you end up being right
In stocks, luck, gut and opportunity almost always beat skill, intelligence and analysis in my experience
Not financial advice. Just my personal opinion
“It wasn’t brains that got me here, I can assure you of that “