Well, it's as serious as all other comments about tsla..which is to say not very serious.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Elon cares the most about his investors and care the least about the speculators trading on Tesla's volatility. If Elon didn't care about his investors, then why would his compensation package tie directly to the marketcap of Tesla? Why would he bother to have his team relentlessly s increase operating profit/margins despite being the industry leader already? Why would this richest person in the world not having Mai Tais on his own private island with naked super models but still right here with us shareholders trying to get FSD out the door/writing master plans, and holding all of these meetings with presidents and governers all over the world? Maybe this is why he has a hard time sleeping because his intern clock is all screwed up by traveling around the world every day.
When you only sleep 4 hours a day are you really impacted by jet lag?
Also, everything is spot on here. In Musk’s eyes, investors are people who buy shares and hang on for 10 years. You don’t see anyone complaining about 10 year returns on Tesla and you likely never will.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
So many posts, podcasts and videos predicting what topics and reveals might be presented at investor day. While I understand this is the internet and guessing is what many want to do as the event gets closer...I am skipping the prediction posts here, podcasts and videos because no one knows. Too many predictions are overly optimistic and just lead to disappointment. It's like when your buddy overhypes a really good movie and you end up disappointed from unrealistic expectations. Thanks, but no thanks. I am trying to avoid expectations and enjoy whatever content Tesla has in mind. Not investment advice! 
Surprised by this. Elon cares about the mission, that is the answer to your questions. I actually do not think he cares much at all over stock price.
Elon liked a tweet on Warren Buffett and stock buybacks. Wondering which will make news for Tesla first.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Happy "are you prepared for Investor's Day?"
2 days to vote in Bingo
Investor day thread
I'm not hyping btw - haven't even mentioned the possibility of the supersonic VTOL launching next year...
2 days to vote in Bingo
Investor day thread
I'm not hyping btw - haven't even mentioned the possibility of the supersonic VTOL launching next year...
petit_bateau
Active Member
Never mind the minor issues of legacy automotive. What do you think this must feel like for the people controlling ROPEC+, or more pertinently the people dependent on the oil revenues continuing to roll in from exports. Here is my graph of existing oil production and future demand, overlaid with a set of curves that apply the world average of a 6.5% reservoir decline curve. You can see that already the major oil producing nations have vast stranded assets of existing producing reservoirs, never mind the locked-in resource base of the as-yet undeveloped reserves.
(Different types of reservoirs have different typical decline curves. One can do this analysis at a country level or a company level if inclined.)
If you are a driller, you are in the same situation as a legacy auto, you've literally got 10-years left in your job !* But there are a lot of other people who have a serious chance of losing their lives, or their meagre subsistence. Mostly all over the Middle East.
And here are the biggest exporters. The list gets even more interesting when you look at oil exports per capita, and then consider which of those countries is realistically going to be able to substitute those revenues with renewables-derived revenues. The petro-states and their client states are in for a very rocky ride as the cashflows dry up pretty quickly.
Crude oil export value by country 2022 | Statista
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in 2022 had a value of 224.8 billion U.S.
www.statista.com
* Slight exaggeration - one needs drillers right up until the last moment as that 6.5% decline curve assumes normal oilfield interventions, workovers, etc. Plus once the wells are shut-in they need to be tidied away nicely. Be nice to your drillers, they need cuddles !
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Munro, though, also did not understand the Plaid motors, thinking the carbon fiber wrapping was a faulty technique. For traditional manufacturing they were great. Now I’m not too impressed. Even though they’re Tesla fans they often miss the real benefits and advances in automation. Sandy still talks about ‘operators and thinks about 1970’s era Ford. Perhaps partly because of Demings-era efficiency tools it’s hard to think in terms of 2020’s era automation and AÍ fermented advances including materials. Tough transition!
I never said I was gipped since I never assumed HW3 would get you to any form of robotaxi.
My point is that Elon mislead many customers whether he intended to or not and Tesla should consider ways to help FSD customers with the license cost when they are evaluating the impact of HW4. Nothing more. Bringing up Waymo/Cruise should have little bearing on this. It's about integrity.
FSD Timeline Promises (summary)
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The key with buybacks is that they buy back + cancel shares and actually give current investors more ownership of the company.
But that is not always the case, and this is something Buffett has also talked publicly about. With some companies, more commonly in tech from what I had read, buybacks can be executed but then the company adds far more shares through new options particularly through stock-based compensation plans. You need to understand the full picture to really know whether you're getting more equity as an investor or whether buybacks end up being a tool to allow further dilution through stock options.
But that is not always the case, and this is something Buffett has also talked publicly about. With some companies, more commonly in tech from what I had read, buybacks can be executed but then the company adds far more shares through new options particularly through stock-based compensation plans. You need to understand the full picture to really know whether you're getting more equity as an investor or whether buybacks end up being a tool to allow further dilution through stock options.
Most of Elon's broken "promises" that you keep reposting are just predictions that missed or haven't happened yet. I can tell the difference.
Thinking about the context of the initial Investor Day announcement - released along with disappointing Q4 results when there was furious outcry about Elon and the board doing nothing while the stock crashed. It seemed to me like a concession to angry shareholders, since we didn’t get the buybacks that people like Uncle Leo were loudly demanding at the time.
On the January Twitter Spaces, Elon said he wanted to see how bad any recession in 2023 would be before any buyback decision. Q1 will be over soon and the economy seems to be in better shape than feared at the time.
Now with Elon’s endorsement of Buffett on the benefits of buybacks, I’m fairly convinced we get an announcement at Investor Day.
I could imagine at one of the “emergency” Tesla board meetings in December Elon mentioned, they resolved to give it two months into 2023 to assess the economy before making the decision to go ahead with the repurchasing.
Why else choose to call it “investor” day but then broaden the meaning of the word investor to include anyone on earth and focus it on master plan 3?
On the January Twitter Spaces, Elon said he wanted to see how bad any recession in 2023 would be before any buyback decision. Q1 will be over soon and the economy seems to be in better shape than feared at the time.
Now with Elon’s endorsement of Buffett on the benefits of buybacks, I’m fairly convinced we get an announcement at Investor Day.
I could imagine at one of the “emergency” Tesla board meetings in December Elon mentioned, they resolved to give it two months into 2023 to assess the economy before making the decision to go ahead with the repurchasing.
Why else choose to call it “investor” day but then broaden the meaning of the word investor to include anyone on earth and focus it on master plan 3?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'm not seeing the connection between buybacks and the broader definition of "investor".
Probably old news but I just noticed the Tesla website pops up as "artificial intelligence company".
Never mind the minor issues of legacy automotive. What do you think this must feel like for the people controlling ROPEC+, or more pertinently the people dependent on the oil revenues continuing to roll in from exports. Here is my graph of existing oil production and future demand, overlaid with a set of curves that apply the world average of a 6.5% reservoir decline curve. You can see that already the major oil producing nations have vast stranded assets of existing producing reservoirs, never mind the locked-in resource base of the as-yet undeveloped reserves.
(Different types of reservoirs have different typical decline curves. One can do this analysis at a country level or a company level if inclined.)
If you are a driller, you are in the same situation as a legacy auto, you've literally got 10-years left in your job !* But there are a lot of other people who have a serious chance of losing their lives, or their meagre subsistence. Mostly all over the Middle East.
View attachment 911393
And here are the biggest exporters. The list gets even more interesting when you look at oil exports per capita, and then consider which of those countries is realistically going to be able to substitute those revenues with renewables-derived revenues. The petro-states and their client states are in for a very rocky ride as the cashflows dry up pretty quickly.
View attachment 911386
Crude oil export value by country 2022 | Statista
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in 2022 had a value of 224.8 billion U.S.
* Slight exaggeration - one needs drillers right up until the last moment as that 6.5% decline curve assumes normal oilfield interventions, workovers, etc. Plus once the wells are shut-in they need to be tidied away nicely. Be nice to your drillers, they need cuddles !
Probably worth starting WW3 over.
Another reason to diversify production capacity over many continents
Legacy paint shops are useless to Tesla. Tesla uses highly automated and efficient paint shops that are integrated to the factory operating systems. These advanced paint shops are very, very difficult to integrate in an established factory, hence Tesla uses them in new factories but apparently not in Fremont. All this has been posted here multiple times.
This, as an example is one of many things that is not suitable for retrofit. Perhaps it would be an advantage to have structural permissions in place. However, the difficulties are clear when tesla has not chosen disused former plants for anything at all since Fremont. The sole exceptions have been warehouses, simple assembly plants like Lathrop in 2014:
Even there when they decided on Lathrop for utility-level storage they built a new building:
Tesla Megafactory: New Megapack Factory in Lathrop ...YouTube · Tesla North 28 secondsOct 25, 2022
The net is that Tesla can and does convert existing car dealerships to Tesla sales and service centers and can use existing warehouses for warehouse operations, they do not use existing factories for factory operations because Tesla manufacturing bears little comparison with legacy manufacturing. The analogy is something like using a buggy factory to build cars. i.e. some did that, but they all failed. Those which did that initially, such as the Studebaker brothers, almost immediately built new factories.
OEM's such as VW are converting plants. That approach will fail precisely because they'll build ICE cars that happen to be electric rather than pure BEV. They're reusing traditional suppliers and designing just as they did. That model will continue to be inefficient compared to purpose-built factories and designs. That is just like using established techniques to produce high altitude turbojet airplanes. Ask de Havilland how the Comet worked out!
Such things as pouch cells and Tier One supplier dependency are contributing factors to decisions to use existing factories and manufacturing processes. That approach fails! almost every time. 'almost' because that can work, but has lower efficiency, e.g. Fremont.
A little amusement for the weekend. Another BI hit piece appeared in my news feed this morning. For whatever reason I chose to read it. Reminded me of a fairytale - spinning every adjustment made by Tesla into a huge false narrative and predicting doom.
And then I discovered today is National Fairytale day, courtesy of Neil Gaiman
. Except the joke’s on the BI authors and their paetrons, because THEY are being beaten..
And then I discovered today is National Fairytale day, courtesy of Neil Gaiman
. Except the joke’s on the BI authors and their paetrons, because THEY are being beaten..Probably sleeps 4 hours a day because he is impacted by jet lag. That and worrying about all the fires he need to out out every minute.
Obviously, that's why Tesla chose to convert an existing plant in Germany./s
It has taken sooo long to obtain approvals./s
Is that why the term 'Tesla speed' in Germany means slower than others?/s
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