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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Since the day is about much more than promoting capital allocation, why are they calling it investor day in the first place? My hypothesis is that it was originally planned to be a “throw a bone to angry investors buyback announcement” but has instead morphed into master plan part 3.
So I’m hoping for a buyback announcement - and also wondering to what degree that might surprise the market and blunt a sell-the-news after what I am assuming will be an Investor Day that excites us fans but disappoints the broader market like usual.
For context, those buyback critics are typically left wing wage stagnation complainers. In their perspective, the company should pay the extra cash out in wages vs stock buy back.
So either that's a burned out headlight, or they just paused "KITT Mode" on the light bar...New videos of Cybertruck all over twitter -
It looks amazing!
And that is exactly the point they haven't happened and many won't. Telling the difference doesn't really matter. Since this is an investor thread I'll stop posting on this topic here.
Feels like maybe a valid criticism if the company is effectively playing games buying back stock and then pumping out more stock options, that would need to be judged on a case-by-case basis.
Not what I see really. Buy backs force investors like me to sell shares. Not what I want. If a dividend then I can make my own choice as to whether I buy even more shares or use it as I please. I see buy backs as heavy handed. At least a balanced plan would show some thoughtfulness IMO or don’t do it at all.
It is not all about tax avoidance for everyone. And I like Buffet’s business approach generally but I also would not be surprised to see it change.
This is why I think @Buckminster creates the Bingo Card. It takes all the suggestions (some real, some ridiculous), and makes it pretty clear we have no clue. Looking forward to this one for sure! Let's make sure to add "End Buses" if there's room.So many posts, podcasts and videos predicting what topics and reveals might be presented at investor day. While I understand this is the internet and guessing is what many want to do as the event gets closer...I am skipping the prediction posts here, podcasts and videos because no one knows. Too many predictions are overly optimistic and just lead to disappointment. It's like when your buddy overhypes a really good movie and you end up disappointed from unrealistic expectations. Thanks, but no thanks. I am trying to avoid expectations and enjoy whatever content Tesla has in mind. Not investment advice!
None of what you said has anything to do with stock price. Everything Elon Musk does is about growing the company. His compensation is in stock options because he wants to retain control of the company, doesn’t want the company to bleed cash, and really just follows the tradition of CEOs of modern public companies.
Agree.
Elon cares about people who support the mission by investing in Tesla. Or buying a car. Or both.
He does not care about folks looking to make a buck by trading TSLA, and the amount of distraction & angsty chatter when the stock price on any given day/week/quarter isn't where Wall St.
Looks like a fog light. Maybe testing that out?
You and everyone are only saying this in hindsight. His compensation package was considered insane when it was announced because it gave him a 90+% chance of becoming bankrupt himself if Tesla becomes worthless. Everyone thought Tesla would eventually become worthless including himself, hence the most shorted company on the market.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Somebody please explain this sentence to me. Thanks!
cliff harris
Member
Count me in as someone in favour of building new EV-specific factories over converting old ones.
I did a bit of a big dive into factory layout about 5 years ago when in my day job, I made a video game about designing car factories. It was actually a key 'constraint' of the game that the layout you are given is suboptimal, and the 'challenge' was in making the most of an awkward, suboptimal layout...
Its not just that the layout demands for EVs differ from ICE, its also that things have *changed* since most of the existing factories were built. Back in the model T days, there were no robots, just a LOT of people manually doing stuff. The ford factory might have been an ideal layout for:
A modern car is a totally different beast, and assembled differently. You need fewer people, but higher skills. Lots of robots.
And even just going back a decade, we now have an even bigger revolution:
I honestly think if Ford, or Toyota, or any legacy car maker offered an existing factory of theirs, completely empty, and just a shell, to Elon, to take over tomorrow, and PAID him $10m, he would still say no thanks.
The complexity of car factories can look like a computer chip when zoomed out. ASICs perform better than CPUs because they are super-optimised for a single task. Tesla builds the ASICs of car factories.
I still think that eventually they will demolish Fremont, and start again there from scratch with a proper layout. Probably once they have 7 or 8 other factories at full ramp.
I did a bit of a big dive into factory layout about 5 years ago when in my day job, I made a video game about designing car factories. It was actually a key 'constraint' of the game that the layout you are given is suboptimal, and the 'challenge' was in making the most of an awkward, suboptimal layout...
Its not just that the layout demands for EVs differ from ICE, its also that things have *changed* since most of the existing factories were built. Back in the model T days, there were no robots, just a LOT of people manually doing stuff. The ford factory might have been an ideal layout for:
- Many more people than required now
- Way less paint, and lower quality/layers of paint than now
- Working on all that lumber that would be used in the car
A modern car is a totally different beast, and assembled differently. You need fewer people, but higher skills. Lots of robots.
And even just going back a decade, we now have an even bigger revolution:
- No more engines, but now we have motors!
- Lots of computer tech, and a 'wiring harness' is now a big part of the car
- Chassis is now cast, not welded. Super-heavy equipment, dedicated foundations.
- Battery manufacture integrated into the plant
I honestly think if Ford, or Toyota, or any legacy car maker offered an existing factory of theirs, completely empty, and just a shell, to Elon, to take over tomorrow, and PAID him $10m, he would still say no thanks.
The complexity of car factories can look like a computer chip when zoomed out. ASICs perform better than CPUs because they are super-optimised for a single task. Tesla builds the ASICs of car factories.
I still think that eventually they will demolish Fremont, and start again there from scratch with a proper layout. Probably once they have 7 or 8 other factories at full ramp.
Maybe I didn’t follow this closely enough, but what kind of compensation structure would make someone bankrupt? Is there such a thing as negative compensation? Elon Musk was worth several hundred million dollars before he joined Tesla.
Only analysts and those they've duped think a 40% Q4 year over year increase is disappointing.
He gave every last cent to Tesla and the company was cash flow negative. So if the company goes under, his shares go to zero. So yes, his paper net worth was high because Tesla was not worth zero. And his compensation package hinges on Tesla not going to zero as well since he didn't take a salary. The craziest part is that his compensation only pays out if Tesla becomes one of the most valuable car company in the world, with majority of it being payed out being more valuable than Toyota. It's really laughable at the time and no one took it seriously. Cnbc calls it the most radical compensation plan ever.
He was living off loan money borrowed against his shares, which hinges on not going to zero. So if Tesla goes, he will have debt he can't pay..assuming SpaceX went to zero as well which being a rocket company is a high possibility back then.
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Yup!
The talking bobble heads on CNBS definitely thought it was ridiculous.
“Crazy”, “magically”, “irrational” are just a few of the words used among laughs, smirks and other gestures.
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