Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dbeiler]

I think if they can make electro braking safe enough for aircraft, it should be quite achievable for autos as well. I'm sure very bright engineers are working on it, complete with redundancy and failsafe features. Just like hydraulic brakes have multiple circuits for redundancy/safety.

It's not the lack of engineering keeping this from being used in cars; it's the eye popping cost of operation. Aircraft parts require regular disassembly and inspection ($$$$ labor hours) and once a part replacement is necessary, you will find that it costs more than an entire car.

 

[gene]

Haven't seen either @The Accountant or @StarFoxisDown! post lately... hope everything is alright, their input is sorely missed!

Also has anyone heard how @gene is doing following his heart surgery? I hope he's doing fine and well on his way to recovery!

Thank you for asking. I am home now. Doing well. Luckily it ended up just a stent was required. It was still quite the ordeal. It was what the docs call “the widow maker” artery. I had very mild symptoms and yet had it not been discovered I’d be a goner within one or two more weeks. I was very lucky. The procedure is still invasive enough to the heart that it’ll take some weeks to feel normal. Actually, I was awake through the whole operation and while it was frightening, it was quite spectacular what modern medical science can do! The only real pain was the stent being shoved up my arm to my heart. But at that moment I was so relieved because that stent headed up my artery meant that there would not be an open heart surgery. What a relief!! I used to be vegan Year’s ago, I’m definitely going back to it!! Thanks to everyone here!! It’s great to have this community as friends.

 

[SmokyPeat]

The new car out of Giga Mexico won't get this IRA discount. The sales price will be the real price. I can believe that since it's a dimensionally-smaller car, with a lower caliber of luxury appointments, Tesla could offer the base trim for well under $30K. Despite economies of scale afforded by offering a small number of configurations, there will definitely be at least one more trim w/ longer range. Priced in low $30K's?

Are you sure about that? I thought the IRA tax credit applied to vehicles built in N. America, ie US, Canada, and Mexico.

 

[MartinAustin]

Thank you for asking. I am home now. Doing well. Luckily it ended up just a stent was required. It was still quite the ordeal. It was what the docs call “the widow maker” artery. I had very mild symptoms and yet had it not been discovered I’d be a goner within one or two more weeks. I was very lucky. The procedure is still invasive enough to the heart that it’ll take some weeks to feel normal. Actually, I was awake through the whole operation and while it was frightening, it was quite spectacular what modern medical science can do! The only real pain was the stent being shoved up my arm to my heart. But at that moment I was so relieved because that stent headed up my artery meant that there would not be an open heart surgery. What a relief!! I used to be vegan Year’s ago, I’m definitely going back to it!! Thanks to everyone here!! It’s great to have this community as friends.

[OK, nothing to to with Tesla.] I had a couple of stents put in last December. The night before the procedure, I went to see "Avatar 2." I was under strict instructions to not get into any strenuous physical activity. I'd had the opening night IMAX tickets for weeks and figured, what could go wrong, sitting motionless in a cinema? The final battle was so intense, I could tell my heart rate was going up. I had to close my eyes and put my hands over my ears to eliminate the issue Had to go see it again... after the stents were in

 

[Cosmacelf]

Tmc Survey:

I have to replace a 2020 Ice Minivan for wife. (Everything is good between us and she likes Ohm My, a.k.a my Tesla now and has driven it and *sugar* her pants after hitting the go pedal)

Option A Model Y 7 seater
Option B Model X 5, 6, or 7 seater
Option C another Ice pos but has the seating and storage for long trips.

The biggest factor is luggage and seating for 5.. I have 2 weeks to decide. Is there roof storage on any Tesla?
All input is welcome.

Edit: I think Tesla will offer a minivan in the next 3 years. So if I have the misfortune of doing a 3 year Ice lease, I believe I could be a Tesla only household.

Thanks Tmc and HODL!

If you can handle the Falcon wing doors, a Model X is a very nice vehicle. Get the six seater. Alternatively, the Rivian SUV if you need something bigger and can find one,

 

[Singuy]

Autoline explained the significant of the gen 3 platform assembly lines, the greatest that he witness in his career.

Tesla was teaching a college course to a bunch of infants.

Bulls were like: Wen 25k car?
Bears were like: Optimus was CGI
Automakers engineers were like: holy s.....

 

[wipster]

Thank you for asking. I am home now. Doing well. Luckily it ended up just a stent was required. It was still quite the ordeal. It was what the docs call “the widow maker” artery. I had very mild symptoms and yet had it not been discovered I’d be a goner within one or two more weeks. I was very lucky. The procedure is still invasive enough to the heart that it’ll take some weeks to feel normal. Actually, I was awake through the whole operation and while it was frightening, it was quite spectacular what modern medical science can do! The only real pain was the stent being shoved up my arm to my heart. But at that moment I was so relieved because that stent headed up my artery meant that there would not be an open heart surgery. What a relief!! I used to be vegan Year’s ago, I’m definitely going back to it!! Thanks to everyone here!! It’s great to have this community as friends.

That's awesome Gene! Wild what they can do now days. We're glad to have you back my friend, wouldn't want you to miss all the great things a'coming in Teslaville!

 

[SmokyPeat]

It's not the lack of engineering keeping this from being used in cars; it's the eye popping cost of operation. Aircraft parts require regular disassembly and inspection ($$$$ labor hours) and once a part replacement is necessary, you will find that it costs more than an entire car.

You might be surprised how many technological advances got their start in aviation and aerospace. At one time turbochargers and superchargers were thought to be far too expensive for automotive applications.

 

[Ogre]

I think it's funny how much the Gen 3 vehicle is being referred to as "the $25K Tesla". We don't know the pricing of the Gen 3 vehicles yet! It will certainly be more affordable than the M3/MY, but the price is unannounced. It will likely be much higher than $25K for years, during the initial ramp with sky high demand and higher options/trims and margins. Seems like using the $25K phrase sets everyone up for disappointment....as investors, why would we want to encourage that? Any chance we can move away from referring to it by its unannounced price?

I got sidetracked up there. I agree. Nobody at Tesla mentioned a price. At Investor Day (and a few times before that), Tesla management said they would be able to produce a car for half what the Model 3/Y costs to produce and produce them twice as fast.

Personally I don't believe the "no paint" story at present. Will it be stainless steel like the Cybertruck? (What else could it be made from and expected to last)

Tesla threw out a lot of tidbits on Investor Day and perhaps a few red herrings. The no paint thing was a comment by Zhu in a private conversation with an individual investor. It’s hard to say exactly what it means.

 

[InTheMiddle]

Tmc Survey:

I have to replace a 2020 Ice Minivan for wife. (Everything is good between us and she likes Ohm My, a.k.a my Tesla now and has driven it and *sugar* her pants after hitting the go pedal)

Option A Model Y 7 seater
Option B Model X 5, 6, or 7 seater
Option C another Ice pos but has the seating and storage for long trips.

The biggest factor is luggage and seating for 5.. I have 2 weeks to decide. Is there roof storage on any Tesla?
All input is welcome.

Edit: I think Tesla will offer a minivan in the next 3 years. So if I have the misfortune of doing a 3 year Ice lease, I believe I could be a Tesla only household.

Thanks Tmc and HODL!

We have both (see my sig). Both A and B are great options - rather than taking advice from the web, simply have her go sit in / test drive each of them and the choice that is right for her will be pretty obvious. And, yes, Tesla offers a roof rack for the Y and a hitch mount for both the X and Y. <No roof rack for the X, obviously >

 

[MartinAustin]

Are you sure about that? I thought the IRA tax credit applied to vehicles built in N. America, ie US, Canada, and Mexico.

It only works for American  buyers. Of which there are none outside the USA

 

[Ogre]

It only works for American  buyers. Of which there are none outside the USA

A lot of people assume Mexico production will go to the US. Troy Teslike is spewing this as well.

But here’s a weird thought.

Is Giga Texas going to have room for an Gen 3 line after the Cybertruck production starts? Model Y production is less than half of the factory. Cybertruck production is likely smaller than the Model Y production (no paint plus that 33% space efficiency thing they talked about). Is there enough room in GigaTexas for a Gen 3 line?

I think there is.

 

[SmokyPeat]

It only works for American  buyers. Of which there are none outside the USA

Yeah, that's true if none of the Mexican made vehicles/batteries are sold in the US. We'll have to see if that winds up being the case.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Thank you for asking. I am home now. Doing well. Luckily it ended up just a stent was required. It was still quite the ordeal. It was what the docs call “the widow maker” artery. I had very mild symptoms and yet had it not been discovered I’d be a goner within one or two more weeks. I was very lucky. The procedure is still invasive enough to the heart that it’ll take some weeks to feel normal. Actually, I was awake through the whole operation and while it was frightening, it was quite spectacular what modern medical science can do! The only real pain was the stent being shoved up my arm to my heart. But at that moment I was so relieved because that stent headed up my artery meant that there would not be an open heart surgery. What a relief!! I used to be vegan Year’s ago, I’m definitely going back to it!! Thanks to everyone here!! It’s great to have this community as friends.

Great to hear! My favorite uncle had a couple stents put in last year. The surgeon said he had 95% blockage in that widowmaker artery. We had all been noticing that his energy was unusually low and he just wasn't "himself". The stents made an immediate improvement. Pretty amazing what modern medicine can do.

 

[saniflash]

Maybe at some point Tesla will start selling factory franchises.

bingo

 

[Sparky4life]

So, just to throw a wrench in the works: Yeah, I can see where electric brakes might be cheaper than running around with all those pistons, cylinders, hydraulic fluid lines, and reservoirs. But.. while Brake Failure is a Thing (hit the brakes, pedal goes to the floor and Nothing!), it's exceedingly rare. And it's rare because, well, it's reliable.

• There's not just one brake system in Ye Standard Car, there's two! Front left/Rear right and Front right/Left rear are independent, so if one gets a brake line ripped out, one loses two wheels but keeps the other two. It's not ideal, sure, but it's better than the alternatives.
• Direct physical connection between the brake pedal and all those brake cylinders back there. Lose power steering and one can still stop the car, albeit with a lot more shoving on the brake pedal. So, even if The End Is Nigh for the ICE engine or all the electrics in a Tesla, one can still stop the car. Again, not ideal, but sure better than the alternatives.
• People have been designing and building brakes for a very long time. Known technology on a safety-critical system.. sounds like a good idea.

So, I'm willing to entertain the idea of ebrakes. But, sure and begorrah, whatever form those things take, they had better have at least the reliability of ye olde fashioned hydraulic systems. And not just an overall reliability figure, but the ability to Not Crash The Car When Things Go Wrong. (Fail On, mentioned above, gives me the willies: Suppose that a fuse goes blooey whilst one is barreling down an interstate in heavy traffic at 70 mph? One Does Not Want Screetch The Tires Braking in such a situation.)

There might be other, mechanical parallel solutions that gives one a measure of control when the primary braking is toast. My old '71 VW Beetle had honest-to-golly cables going to the rear drum brakes for parking brake purposes. That came in handy the day my shoelaces (!) got snagged around the brake pedal, preventing me from putting my foot on the brake to avoid a stopped car immediately ahead. Pulling the emergency brake and turning sharp right onto a curb saved the day. Although I guess that using my left foot would have worked, too.

Main point: ebrakes had better be more reliable and fault-tolerant than the current hydraulic solution. Otherwise, there will be bodies.

For safety critical systems like this, reliability is gained through redundancy of the components, cross connected such that multiple simultaneous failures are needed to cause the entire system to fail. For brakes, this means multiple sensors on the pedal, multiple controllers performing the logic in parallel, and multiple actuators on the brakes themselves. A similar architecture was used in the space shuttle for the flight control surfaces:

Compound actuation system design for an advanced space transportation reusable orbiter

The SL-12 is a reusable space orbiter which offers the capability to go beyond the notion of a second generation space shuttle, and is targeted to be in operation in the year 2020. SL-12 Orbiter utilizes gimballing of the main rocket engines for control during ascent and typical aerodynamic...

medcraveonline.com

 

[johnm6875]

A lot of people assume Mexico production will go to the US. Troy Teslike is spewing this as well.

But here’s a weird thought.

Is Giga Texas going to have room for an Gen 3 line after the Cybertruck production starts? Model Y production is less than half of the factory. Cybertruck production is likely smaller than the Model Y production (no paint plus that 33% space efficiency thing they talked about). Is there enough room in GigaTexas for a Gen 3 line?

I think there is.

I can't remember if the construction at the South end of the main building, where the parking lot was pulled up, has been designated for a particular purpose. Gen 3?

 

[Tim S]

Tmc Survey:

I have to replace a 2020 Ice Minivan for wife. (Everything is good between us and she likes Ohm My, a.k.a my Tesla now and has driven it and *sugar* her pants after hitting the go pedal)

Option A Model Y 7 seater
Option B Model X 5, 6, or 7 seater
Option C another Ice pos but has the seating and storage for long trips.

The biggest factor is luggage and seating for 5.. I have 2 weeks to decide. Is there roof storage on any Tesla?
All input is welcome.

Edit: I think Tesla will offer a minivan in the next 3 years. So if I have the misfortune of doing a 3 year Ice lease, I believe I could be a Tesla only household.

Thanks Tmc and HODL!

You can buy a roof rack for a Model Y from Tesla for $500.

https://shop.tesla.com/category/vehicle-accessories/model-y

 

[MartinAustin]

A lot of people assume Mexico production will go to the US. Troy Teslike is spewing this as well.

But here’s a weird thought.

Is Giga Texas going to have room for an Gen 3 line after the Cybertruck production starts? Model Y production is less than half of the factory. Cybertruck production is likely smaller than the Model Y production (no paint plus that 33% space efficiency thing they talked about). Is there enough room in GigaTexas for a Gen 3 line?

I think there is.

Yep. Also... they have 3,025 acres and lots of unused space. Plenty of room for additional buildings.

 

[jerry33]

Dave Lee was told by a Tesla staff member that the output of the factory is intended mainly for South America.

We could also say output of Shanghai is intended mainly for China. A factory serving multiple markets is possible and desirable.

Monterrey will not be the last Gen3 factory and the next one may not be far away.

There are 191,000 millionaires in Indonesia and 266,000 millionaires in Brazil according to a quick Google search.

There are some very wealthy people in developing countires, which typically includes many from traditional ruling classes, farm, factory and business owners, and in some cases tech entrepreneurs.

There is a non-zero market for a $25,000-30,000 Tesla in South America, some can even afford a Model S Plaid. To sell the Plaid, Tesla needs local service, delivery and Supercharging.

I don't know if there is a market for 1 million EVs per year in South America, but I assume Tesla has some idea about likely demand.

Is Troy really suggesting that not one of those 266,000 millionaires in Brazil can afford a $25,000 car?

I Googled because I worked for a month in Indonesia around 1995 and was told that there was a large number of millionaires in the country. In some ways it is just a numbers game. In any country with a high population there has to be some wealthy people.

Edit: Changed the date from 1988 to 1995, because Google is far better than my memory.

Agreed. This is similar to the average age in the Middle Ages. It’s low because of the high infant morality rate. Remove those who died before year two and the average age is close to modern times. Remove the poorest people and the average income goes way up.