Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Max Plaid]

The German and Italian governments are fighting a lost battle. They may succeed in adding an addendum to the ban, leaving an opening for the sale after 2035 of cars which run on synthetic fuel (not gas or diesel). But many German and French car manufacturers have already reiterated their decisions to phase out combustion engines by 2030 or 2035. More important: it takes 6-7 times more electricity to produce the synthetic fuel needed to travel the same distance as an electric car, making synthetic fuel not only very environmentally unfriendly but also very expensive. So even if the sale is still allowed, no one will buy this fuel nor the cars which are able to use it.

Member States are effectively banning ICE anyway, regardless of EU laws. Great example is here in Belgium, as reported by @NicoV where most new cars are company cars and tax deductibility is being phased-out for anything other than zero emissions. This has the effect of making ICE vehicles unattractive from a taxation perspective, but also way more expensive due to the reduces residual values, which then get factored into a higher lease cost

The main cities are progressively banning older ICE from entering, there are cameras recording number plates and fines issued as necessary, these rules tighten with every passing year

Finally, the people will vote with their € - not many that drive an EV then don't want one, and as the prices reduce it becomes a no-brainer

 

[wtlloyd]

This article from The Economist says that what was believed to be an EU decision to ban ICE sales by 2035 has been derailed and might be difficult to get back on track. Germany started the resistance out of concern for its auto industry, but getting Germany back on the wagon might be insufficient as other nations might also be reconsidering.

Germany is letting a domestic squabble pollute Europe’s green ambitions

A fight over cars turns ugly

www.economist.com

I console myself with KNOWING that by 2035 the option to buy ICE will almost entirely have been eliminated years previously by market force.
Gotta love Capitalism, when it's working for the better good.

 

[Electroman]

Thanks for this, good thread. I encourage you to also post your analysis here at TMC.

Early sample Tesla 4680 cells have no silicon in the anode. This puts them at an energy density disadvantage vs. Panasonic 2170s currently produced at Giga Nevada. I look for Tesla to update 4680 anode chemistry when Cybertruck goes into production in Texas. Increase in energy density w. silicon anode could be up to 25%: (this allows for a 188KWh pack in the volume of a 150KWh pack w/o silicon)

https://www.powerelectronicsnews.com/silicon-based-anode-for-ev-batteries-ramps-up-energy-density-by-25/

Then we have to figure in Cybertruck's superior aerodynamics. It's Cd is 0.39 vs 0.59 for an F150 Raptor:

Here’s how the Cybertruck’s aerodynamics compare to regular trucks

One thing that Elon Musk emphasized about the Cybertruck during its unveil is that its design is about more than just aesthetics. We already know the thick, angular steel plates makes for a stronger frame and theoretically lower build cost,

thenextweb.com

View attachment 917748



Using an online calculator, given 7,000 lbs weight, 35" diameter tires, Cd of 0.39 and 31.5 sq.ft frontal area (same as Ford F-150 Lightning) we get an estimated 0.362 KWh/mi energy consumption at 60 mph:

Wheels Vehicle Simulation - Cybertruck | virtual-car.org​

This result implies ~180 KWh energy required to drive 500 miles on the highway at 60 mph, or ~96% of a hypothetical Si-anode battery pack. Such a pack will be able to charge @ 350KW from 10% to 85% adding 385 miles of range in about 24 min.

With silcon-doped anodes, these cells may have a max charge rate of 6C (nominally 100% in 10 min), thus they would be limited by v3 Supercharger output. However, these new cells would also be able to sustain max charge rate longer via tapering later/shallower.

TL;dr A 500-mile range Cybertruck is realistic w/o requiring a dual-layer battery pack when silicon anode material is used in 4680 production cells.

Too much of optimistic speculation. Having enough space to cram 200+ Kwh is not the only consideration.

What about weight? what about cost? Cost alone will make a 200 KwH battery simply prohibitable. CT will be $120K plus if it has a 200 Kwh battery.

 

[kbM3]

New banking standards for small banks coming in 3...2...1...

SVB f**ked up by buying long term bonds with short term deposits. What did they expect to happen? You don't buy long term assets that can't easily be liquidated with short term deposits, unless you want to go insolvent when people start withdrawing.

SVB is not alone. Pretty much all banks make money by borrowing from depositors at short term rates, and investing at long term rates. E.g. 30 year mortgages were being sold at 2-3%, long term bonds at low interest rates…. That’s their primary business. They make money on the leverage and the spread.

If you were a bank and someone deposits $100M, you have to set aside $20M. The other $80M can’t be invested in stocks. So where would YOU invest that $80M?

 

[mongo]

A double layer pack will also reduce rotational moment of inertia, resulting in better handling. Probably more important for gen2 roadster.

Only if they reduce the pack area and concentrate mass to the center. Structurally, it would prefer distributed rib like features.

Too much of optimistic speculation. Having enough space to cram 200+ Kwh is not the only consideration.

What about weight? what about cost? Cost alone will make a 200 KwH battery simply prohibitable. CT will be $120K plus if it has a 200 Kwh battery.

Agree on difficulty of single layer 4680 this year, however...
Even at the years ago pricing of $125/kWh, a 200kWh pack is only $25k, $30k with 20% markup.
Investor day spoke of $1k for a drive unit, call it $5k for multiple after mark up.
$35k powertrain cost to customer.
Alternatively, 120kWh ($18k) more than a Y.

 

[y_naught]

Wow, no curb stops to prevent people from backing into the stalls? Here in the states those would not last long.

You break it, you buy it!

 

[Dreadnought]

The German and Italian governments are fighting a lost battle. They may succeed in adding an addendum to the ban, leaving an opening for the sale after 2035 of cars which run on synthetic fuel (not gas or diesel). But many German and French car manufacturers have already reiterated their decisions to phase out combustion engines by 2030 or 2035. More important: it takes 6-7 times more electricity to produce the synthetic fuel needed to travel the same distance as an electric car, making synthetic fuel not only very environmentally unfriendly but also very expensive. So even if the sale is still allowed, no one will buy this fuel nor the cars which are able to use it.

More precisely, it's the German minister of transportation, Volker Wissing, who opposes the ban, and Porsche (VW) is the only manufacturer who pushes for the "E-fuel" exemption. All other German OEMs have realised that ICE is a lost cause.
Wissing is a member of the Liberal Democratic Party. Their leader, Christian Lindner, is a self-confessed Porsche fan. The matter is causing a lot of friction with the Green party and the Social Democrats and I think the last word hasn't been spoken yet.

While this is a severe case of tail wagging the dog, it has about as much relevance as any legislation aimed at prohibiting steam locomotives. The EU is not really pushing the envelope here. Should there be any Porsche drivers left in 2035 who are willing to pay 6x the price for E-fuel than electricity and don't want to drive into any of the many cities that banned ICE vehicles, so be it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I bet the demand in China for Model S/X is gonna be pretty big! This will be in Q1 deliveries I hope!!!

"This week a total of 867 Model S and Model X vehicles arrived at China’s Tianjin Port... deliveries to customers should begin in late March or early April."

First batch of Tesla Model S and Model X arrive in China ahead of customer deliveries

The first shipment of Tesla Model S and Model X cars from California have arrived in China, signaling the start of customer deliveries is just around the corner. There have been no deliveries of Tesla’s […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[JupiterMan]

Member States are effectively banning ICE anyway, regardless of EU laws. Great example is here in Belgium, as reported by @NicoV where most new cars are company cars and tax deductibility is being phased-out for anything other than zero emissions. This has the effect of making ICE vehicles unattractive from a taxation perspective, but also way more expensive due to the reduces residual values, which then get factored into a higher lease cost

similar to UK, BEV's also get high tax relief on the corporate lease payments, making ICE company cars very unattractive in comparison.

When I'm in the office (rarely!) it's interesting, as the main occupant of the buillding is an accountancy firm, so they know a thing or two about tax, and the amount of BEV's in their car park is steadily increasing. Doubtless they are advising their clients likewise.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Crude's taking a dump. Fire sale on oil? Wonder why.

Honda seems to be starting fresh with a new factory for EVs (vs converting existing ICE). Smart move.
(Edit: Except this part - maybe outdated info: "Per Automotive News, Honda is consolidating the two Marysville production lines into a single line to build out EV infrastructure." Seems a change of plans to focus on EVs only? Ford/GM take note.)

Are the others still trying to convert existing factories?

Honda is moving Accord production from Ohio to Indiana to support electrification

The company confirmed that after more than 40 years, the Honda Accord production line would be moving from Marysville, Ohio to Indiana

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[CHGolferJim]

Member States are effectively banning ICE anyway, regardless of EU laws. Great example is here in Belgium, as reported by @NicoV where most new cars are company cars and tax deductibility is being phased-out for anything other than zero emissions. This has the effect of making ICE vehicles unattractive from a taxation perspective, but also way more expensive due to the reduces residual values, which then get factored into a higher lease cost

The main cities are progressively banning older ICE from entering, there are cameras recording number plates and fines issued as necessary, these rules tighten with every passing year

Finally, the people will vote with their € - not many that drive an EV then don't want one, and as the prices reduce it becomes a no-brainer

Are rental car companies keeping pace with these regulations? I got nailed for $200 for driving in an unauthorized zone in Siena a few years ago, and I went back and checked and all the signs were in Italian!

 

[Ogre]

More than half of car buyers want an EV in 2023. This is what hitting the upswing on an S curve looks like.

This is with many models missing. Huge holes (trucks, vans) completely unfilled or with extremely limited/ high end models.

When people talk about demand problems they need to think about this chart.

Source: CarDealershipGuy on Twitter

 

[SOULPEDL]

I can't believe I'm questioning whether or not TD Ameritrade will keep my IRA shares in tact should they (TD) collapse. Some have indicated they "should" be fine, but can they sell them in a BK liquidation situation? And would the remaining be only backed by FDIC at $250K?

 

[UncaNed]

I can't believe I'm questioning whether or not TD Ameritrade will keep my IRA shares in tact should they (TD) collapse. Some have indicated they "should", but can they sell them in a BK liquidation situation? And would the remaining be only backed by FDIC at $250K?

Interesting post... What do we know about various brokerages being safe or in troubles...???

Perhaps we should be discussing the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) or something and how to make our holdings a bit safer? I haven't a clue...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Interesting post... What do we know about various brokerages being safe or in troubles...???

I don't know, just asking. I could just see them all floating extreme imaginary shares in the event of... TSLA and Burnt Hair expected in May.

 

[Ogre]

Too much of optimistic speculation. Having enough space to cram 200+ Kwh is not the only consideration.

What about weight? what about cost? Cost alone will make a 200 KwH battery simply prohibitable. CT will be $120K plus if it has a 200 Kwh battery.

Thanks to the IRA, cell costs are $9,000 less for a 200 kWh US made pack.

Tesla estimated they could produce it and sell it profitably at $69k prior to that legislation. Should be a cake walk now.

 

[Knightshade]

I can't believe I'm questioning whether or not TD Ameritrade will keep my IRA shares in tact should they (TD) collapse. Some have indicated they "should" be fine, but can they sell them in a BK liquidation situation? And would the remaining be only backed by FDIC at $250K?

FDIC does not insure securities at all, so they'd be backed at $0 by them. Anything that's a deposit (cash, CDs, etc) would get the 250k coverage though.

That said, your shares don't belong to the bank- so I don't believe they could legally sell them to raise cash for themselves or anything like that.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

First time ever i have seen a Model 3 for under $30k direct from Tesla:

 

[AndrewZ]

I'd think the safest thing to own in the worst times would be companies who produce the goods and provide the services the world needs, those are what will continue existing.

Warren Buffett would say that if you're making a good investment in a security, you won't care if the stock market shuts down for five years. The stock market is just a place to trade pieces of businesses, you still own those pieces of the businesses if the stock market shuts down as long as the company stays in business.

And there have been times in history where the stock market has shut down, the NYSE was halted entirely for four months when WWI broke out. During The Great Inflation of the '80s and '90s, more than 1600 banks failed or received financial assistance from the FDIC.

 

[SOULPEDL]

FDIC does not insure securities at all, so they'd be backed at $0 by them. Anything that's a deposit (cash, CDs, etc) would get the 250k coverage though.

That said, your shares don't belong to the bank- so I don't believe they could legally sell them to raise cash for themselves or anything like that.

Correct. What about SDIC ($500K equivalent limit in shares).
(*Edit: correction it's SIPC)