Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

Not sure if anyone here is tracking, but SF Bay Area is about to get really Tesla Energy friendly (even more than before):

PG&E says Tuesday was the worst single day for Bay Area outages in almost 3 decades

PG&E officials said Tuesday was the worst single day for Bay Area power outages since...

www.sfchronicle.com

There's been power outages for 3-4 days already across the peninsula (e.g. Palo Alto)

 

[MP3Mike]

Oregon is going to suspend EV incentives due to demand/costs.

I can see this happening at the federal level within the next few years.

Oregon is suspending it because they predict that the claims currently in process will burn through the money that was allotted for the incentive for the year. They will open it again when either more money is allocated or next fiscal year.

The Federal incentives don't have a allotted/budgeted amount.

 

[Singuy]

My '22 Model 3 phantom brakes and also often excessively brakes when an actual braking event occurs, making TACC and standard AP basically useless for me. I've always wished it had a dumb cruise control like my old vehicles.

I have way way way less phantom braking vs AP from when I first got the car in 2018. I am on fsd beta so sensors are turned off. So you win some you lose some. Point is, no one talks about it anymore.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Remember all the people who cried that Tesla removed Radar and cited that AP will phantom brake and will be nerfed? Well that kind of blew over didn't it?

Yah. We don’t miss radar at all. Phantom braking is few and far between now.

But lack of basic parking sensors and losing auto park seems to be a big thing for some people. I know the car salesman zero in on it right away. “Tesla doesn’t even have parking sensors”. Etc etc.

Anyway. We have them on our 2022. Handy sometimes…I guess. Not a big deal for me but it seems to be for some.

 

[Dreadnought]

Nice. Remember that guy that had his cell phone battery die while out hiking in the desert? He couldn't unlock his Tesla because he had no battery power to operate the RFID key. And Tesla couldn't unlock his car remotely either (nor SIRI) because there was no cell phone coverage at the trailhead.

Well, once there's a few more Starlink v2 mini satelites in orbit, Tesla will be able to unlock you car anywhere it can see the sky! Wonderful time to be a Tesla owner (TSLA too!).

Cheers!

Wait a minute -- this story got my spidey sense all tingly. Was the car battery so low that it couldn't power the RFID sensor but it still had enough power left to maintain a cell connection? Or ran his phone out of battery but the guy elected to rather die than break a window, pull the emergency door release, get into the car and charge his phone from the car? More info needed to decide whether this belongs in my collection of urban legends or calls for a submission to Darvin Awards.

The weird thing about the Munro video was both sandy and Cory suggesting it will be 2028/2029 before Tesla overtakes GM by volume. Doesn't make sense to me.

I think if Tesla keeps up their 50% unit growth guide, it should be way earlier. Let's see.

And let's not forget that Tesla doesn't neeed to beat GM's record 10 million from 2016 or last year's 6 million. More likely, they will surpass GM in 2025 at 4 million, give or take.

 

[Singuy]

Yah. We don’t miss radar at all. Phantom braking is few and far between now.

But lack of basic parking sensors and losing auto park seems to be a big thing for some people. I know the car salesman zero in on it right away. “Tesla doesn’t even have parking sensors”. Etc etc.

Anyway. We have them on our 2022. Handy sometimes…I guess. Not a big deal for me but it seems to be for some.

Big deal until Tesla vision becomes just as same or better, just like no radar.

 

[aronth5]

Tesla doesn’t need to sue. A resident in MS or any other state just has to prove that they’ve been harmed by the state law.

If that is true do you know of another state where a resident has successfully litigated they were harmed?

 

[Artful Dodger]

The weird thing about the Munro video was both sandy and Cory suggesting it will be 2028/2029 before Tesla overtakes GM by volume. Doesn't make sense to me.

I think if Tesla keeps up their 50% unit growth guide, it should be way earlier. Let's see.

Indeed, 2026 for the overtake, but that assumes GM can maintain 2022-levels of sales. I think that's doubtful.

 

[Knightshade]

Big deal until Tesla vision becomes just as same or better, just like no radar.

Vision still hasn't reach parity on features with radar- follow distance and max set speed remain superior on radar cars than vision only (though the gap is at least smaller than it was initially in 2021 when radar was removed).

I WOULD be curious to hear what those limits are on the new HW4 now-with-radar-again vehicles though.

 

[Artful Dodger]

More info needed to decide whether this belongs in my collection of urban legends or

"Remote Start" without cellular signal? | Tesla Motors Club

No key and no internet | Tesla Motors Club

 

[hobbes]

Remember all the people who cried that Tesla removed Radar and cited that AP will phantom brake and will be nerfed? Well that kind of blew over didn't it?

Nope, having trouble in bad weather at high speeds ("speed limited") I didn´t have before, and I am not the only one.

 

[hobbes]

Big deal until Tesla vision becomes just as same or better, just like no radar.

Can´t see through fog/mist, never will...

 

[Singuy]

Can´t see through fog/mist, never will...

Don't think parking sensors need to worry about that. And as for fog and mist, camera will see as far as a human and human drives just fine. Will just need to reduce speed.

 

[hobbes]

Don't think parking sensors need to worry about that. And as for fog and mist, camera will see as far as a human and human drives just fine. Will just need to reduce speed.

Was talking about radar that you mentioned as an example. We don´t have to start the discussion all over again though about whether sensors that see more than the human eye are necessary.

 

[Singuy]

Was talking about radar that you mentioned as an example. We don´t have to start the discussion all over again though about whether sensors that see more than the human eye are necessary.

I still keep my stance that people put too much emphasis that a robotaxi needs to drive like a human. It's about being as safe or safer than a human, not to drive like a human (because humans are not safe drivers, they never follow traffic laws and treat everything like it's a suggestion). In a world with only robotaxies, people will be okay with it going 20 on a 50 if there's fog. A human would try to go as fast as he finds tolerable in similar situation as humans always overestimate their abilities.

We know that that robotaxi services like cruise and waymo has speed limiter under the speed limit and takes as many easy routes as possible. Only Tesla folks want a Tesla to be able to complete unprotected left turns over 3 lanes with traffic running at 60mphs.

My prediction is, Tesla will remain as L2 if you want it to drive more human like. Driving speed and minor geofencing will set in for any L4 services, nerfing the ability for Tesla to do really difficult situation. Then maybe after a decade that can relax.

 

[JRP3]

Don't think parking sensors need to worry about that. And as for fog and mist, camera will see as far as a human and human drives just fine. Will just need to reduce speed.

Isn't Tesla adding radar back in with HW4? If so that would seem to be an admission that removing it was a mistake.

 

[jerry33]

Don't think parking sensors need to worry about that. And as for fog and mist, camera will see as far as a human and human drives just fine. Will just need to reduce speed.

I would have thought that to be safer than humans (kind of a low bar) the car would have to see better than humans. Now I don’t know if it’s better to have cameras that see further into the IR and UV range or to use an ancillary device such as radar. I do know that people won’t adopt it initially if it goes too slow.

 

[navguy12]

My '22 Model 3 phantom brakes and also often excessively brakes when an actual braking event occurs, making TACC and standard AP basically useless for me. I've always wished it had a dumb cruise control like my old vehicles.

Same here. Only downside to driving this car long distances is the phantom braking issues, often weather related. Sure wish it had dumb cruise control.

 

[jerry33]

Isn't Tesla adding radar back in with HW4? If so that would seem to be an admission that removing it was a mistake.

That is the rumor. I don’t think Tesla has confirmed it.

 

[gsmith123]

Isn't Tesla adding radar back in with HW4? If so that would seem to be an admission that removing it was a mistake.

The old radars were kind of awful, as in they have very poor lateral resolution. They can't detect if the thing they see is in your lane, above you, beside you, etc.

It's an admission the old radar was insufficient, but not necessarily an admission that deciding to remove the crappy radar was a bad idea.

(All of that said: we still don't have definitive confirmation HW4 cars have radar!)