Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[navguy12]

Condolences. Thoughts and prayers to you and your family. Sounds like he lived a great life.

Thank you. He did live a great life and anyone who met him instantly liked him.

 

[Singuy]

Looks like Troy is changing his tune.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638695829518311424

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Thank you. He did live a great life and anyone who met him instantly liked him.

He sounds like a great man. Remember how he lived and not how he passed. God bless his soul.

 

[Cosmacelf]

From Shirley Meng, I know they don't have a research deal with Tesla, but Tesla is probably involved in this battery consortium, maybe by Jeff Dahn
350 Wh/kg cell cycling

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638636236846907394

We only got to look at a few slides, but there are a lot of problems. It implies that they have pressures of 100 MPa. In the cell? In the manufacturing equipment? That’s like 1000 atmospheres! Anyways, then it says price must come down 5x to 10x, so not commercially viable. And then you have the all important cell specs. They used a charge rate of 10 hours to charge. Ok, what happens if you try to charge it in one hour? Probably worse specs.

Look, all this battery cell research is nice, but it always has huge honking caveats. The rules of thumb of it taking five years from lab scale to production appears to always hold. Even Tesla is finding the same thing with their dry electrode process. As are the current other advanced battery cell startups.

So maybe we can relegate these battery cell research announcements to the appropriate thread since they will have zero effect on TSLA?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Looks like Troy is changing his tune.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638695829518311424

Like he always does

 

[GhostSkater]

Giga Texas lot is packed, they are starting to store some out of it , AKA the Freemont method, if there is free space, a car can be parked there

From

 

[Tony73]

Looks like Troy is changing his tune.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638695829518311424

When you have paying subscribers it is much better to be conservative at the beginning of the quarter and adjust upwards as the evidence comes in.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Cybertruck themed wireless charger now launched

Looks bad to the bone, and is in stock now...

The video is on the Tesla website below, but I couldn't paste just video here. So here is MB's 1 minute take on it.

Link to website.. swipe right for Tesla's video


Wireless Charging Platform https://shop.tesla.com/product/wireless-charging-platform?sku=1799799-00-A

 

[DarthPierce]

Cybertruck themed wireless charger now launched

Looks bad to the bone, and is in stock now...

The video is on the Tesla website below, but I couldn't paste just video here. So here is MB's 1 minute take on it.

Link to website.. swipe right for Tesla's video


Wireless Charging Platform https://shop.tesla.com/product/wireless-charging-platform?sku=1799799-00-A

If we were back above 300, I'd do it.

I hope this indicates a more robust wireless charging area on cybertruck and future cars. The wireless charger in my (2020) Y doesn't work even with a super slim case - only naked.

 

[Svetlin]

Like he always does

He is data driven.

 

[Cosmacelf]

He is data driven.

He makes predictions. Meaning he is guessing based on his incomplete data like anyone who makes predictions. He appears to guess low early in the cycle and manages to guess closer and closer to the higher amount closer to the end of Q. It’s a predictable cycle at this point.

 

[Buckminster]

We only got to look at a few slides, but there are a lot of problems. It implies that they have pressures of 100 MPa. In the cell? In the manufacturing equipment? That’s like 1000 atmospheres! Anyways, then it says price must come down 5x to 10x, so not commercially viable. And then you have the all important cell specs. They used a charge rate of 10 hours to charge. Ok, what happens if you try to charge it in one hour? Probably worse specs.

Look, all this battery cell research is nice, but it always has huge honking caveats. The rules of thumb of it taking five years from lab scale to production appears to always hold. Even Tesla is finding the same thing with their dry electrode process. As are the current other advanced battery cell startups.

So maybe we can relegate these battery cell research announcements to the appropriate thread since they will have zero effect on TSLA?

Popped you in here:
4680 Cathode & Anode discussion for investors

Meanwhile, the company you own a slice of are working on these moderately interesting projects:
Gigafactory locations and products
"Unboxed" Gen 3 manufacturing Process
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

But if you just want to shout out how high the SP will go, get your fix here:
Super Bulls Only

 

[Tony73]

He makes predictions. Meaning he is guessing based on his incomplete data like anyone who makes predictions. He appears to guess low early in the cycle and manages to guess closer and closer to the higher amount closer to the end of Q. It’s a predictable cycle at this point.

The fact that he generally tends to converge towards the actual number as the quarter moves along means it’s not a guess. Troy is not paid for his start of quarter forecast; he ‘s paid for his adjustments and the reasoning behind them. Troy’s customers are on Patreon not TMC and he can not afford to appear emotionally attached to Tesla in any way. No one would pay for that. He knows what he is doing and it’s working very well for him on patreon.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The fact that he generally tends to converge towards the actual number as the quarter moves along means it’s not a guess. Troy is not paid for his start of quarter forecast; he ‘s paid for his adjustments and the reasoning behind them. Troy’s customers are on Patreon not TMC and he can not afford to appear emotionally attached to Tesla in any way. No one would pay for that. He knows what he is doing and it’s working very well for him on patreon.

His numbers are converging towards the actual numbers because the quarter progresses. As it progresses more and more actual sales numbers are known and the estimating part becomes smaller and smaller.

China has weekly insurance registration numbers, so estimating the actual number at the end of the quarter will result in a miss of no more than +/- 5k.

The US is a black box but with the tax credit almost every produced car gets sold, so estimating the Austin production ramp does the trick. Possible miss of no more than +/- 10k.

Finally, in Europe all the sales numbers for the first two months have already been reported and some countries are even reporting live. Possible miss +/- 10k. Troy is now trying to find live updates for the other European countries too:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638534531656327169

This will allow the estimating part to become even smaller and the final prediction more correct. His prediction will however become more reporting than estimating.

 

[T@oo]

His numbers are converging towards the actual numbers because the quarter progresses. As it progresses more and more actual sales numbers are known and the estimating part becomes smaller and smaller.

China has weekly insurance registration numbers, so estimating the actual number at the end of the quarter will result in a miss of no more than +/- 5k.

The US is a black box but with the tax credit almost every produced car gets sold, so estimating the Austin production ramp does the trick. Possible miss of no more than +/- 10k.

Finally, in Europe all the sales numbers for the first two months have already been reported and some countries are even reporting live. Possible miss +/- 10k. Troy is now trying to find live updates for the other European countries too:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638534531656327169

This will allow the estimating part to become even smaller and the final prediction more correct. His prediction will however become more reporting than estimating.

Now tell me again, ELI5, why is it relevant?

 

[hobbes]

Like he always does

Like he should when new info becomes available.

Are you complaining about the weather forecast for the weekend changing during the week, too?
'Man, just bought a rain jacket on Monday, now they say it´ll be nice weather for my hike!!! Can´t they just once keep a consistent forecast?!'

 

[Artful Dodger]

Besides, you'd only ask later for the ability to ignore the replies to the people who reply to the people you ignore.

So then, Bilbo was an ogre?! :/

 

[Artful Dodger]

This will allow the estimating part to become even smaller and the final prediction more correct. His prediction will however become more reporting than estimating.

You seem to have forgotten his last "prediction" / adjustment on the final day of Q4 2022 was a move of 4K, in the wrong direction. Again, NOT better than a random number generator (with a Patreon).

 

[WarpedOne]

Like he should when new info becomes available.

Are you complaining about the weather forecast for the weekend changing during the week, too?
'Man, just bought a rain jacket on Monday, now they say it´ll be nice weather for my hike!!! Can´t they just once keep a consistent forecast?!'

Useful forecast is one that DOES NOT NEED TO CHANGE when new data becomes available.
Because that new data does not conflict with that forecast.
This is a definition of forecast.

Forecasts that need to be changed when new data shows up, are shitty forecasts.
Worse than useless.

 

[UkNorthampton]

With some more battery storage (Tesla), better Scotland/England electricity transmission and if solar/wind hadn't been largely banned in the last few years these amounts could have been much higher. Still, time will solve the problem, it just makes sense in economic & self-reliance terms (national security). The future will be better than today's figures.

United Kingdom - over 50% renewables - randomly noticed in my twitter feed & next to each other. 5 days without coal. Not sure if typical, just indicative of where UK and many other countries are and the future trajectory.