Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Xd85]

I take it a ton of S/X we’re in transit? That’s a huge drop in deliveries from q4 and the widest gap from production to delivery I’ve seen in a while % wise

Heh anyone RTFM? “We continued to transition towards a more even regional mix of vehicle builds, including Model S/X vehicles in transit to EMEA and APAC.”

 

[SunCatcher]

Tesla will post its financial results for the first quarter of 2023 after market close on Wednesday, April 19, 2023. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q1 2023 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.
What: Date of Tesla Q1 2023 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, April 19, 2023
Time: 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Q1 2023 Update: https://ir.tesla.com
Webcast: https://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)

 

[bkp_duke]

I take it a ton of S/X we’re in transit? That’s a huge drop in deliveries from q4 and the widest gap from production to delivery I’ve seen in a while % wise

Per the report:
"We continued to transition towards a more even regional mix of vehicle builds, including Model S/X vehicles in transit to EMEA and APAC."

Yes, lots of S/X in transit to Europe and Asia.

 

[Big Time]

So it’s a beat on deliveries.

 

[AMN]

I take it a ton of S/X we’re in transit? That’s a huge drop in deliveries from q4 and the widest gap from production to delivery I’ve seen in a while % wise

No, I am not buying that. There is a ton of inventory S/X cars in the US.
Having said that, S/X is less than 2% of the revenues for the company. At this point, if they ditch them, they may be better off...

 

[betstarship]

Another record quarter

 

[jerry33]

No, I am not buying that. There is a ton of inventory S/X cars in the US.
Having said that, S/X is less than 2% of the revenues for the company. At this point, if they ditch them, they may be better off...

Nonsense. X and S help sell the 3 and Y. Everyone that rides in it loves our X.

 

[cab]

Already being framed as a bit of a miss. CNBC article (bolding is mine):

According to a mean of estimates, compiled by FactSet as of Friday, Wall Street was expecting Tesla to report deliveries around 432,000 vehicles for the quarter. Estimates included in the FactSet analysis ranged from 410,000 to 451,000 deliveries expected.

The independent researcher who publishes under the handle TroyTeslike was expecting deliveries of 427,000 and production totaling 445,920 vehicles.

Can't say I am not disappointed deliveries weren't closer to 430K. Nothing in long term, but not sure this will pop the stock...at least until folks realize it is against the backdrop of a crap market in China, etc.

 

[Knightshade]

So it’s a beat on deliveries.

Depends who you ask? Tesla IR said the estimate was 421,164 (vs 422,875 actual- so small beat)

Mean of factset estimates was 432k, so a miss if that's your basis. Source for that #:

Tesla reports 422,875 deliveries for first quarter of 2023

Tesla just posted its first-quarter vehicle production and deliveries report for 2023.

www.cnbc.com

Troy if you go by his #s would also make 422,875 a miss of his 427k (end of Q estimate) or his 426k (start of Q estimate)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Per the report:
"We continued to transition towards a more even regional mix of vehicle builds, including Model S/X vehicles in transit to EMEA and APAC."

Yes, lots of S/X in transit to Europe and Asia.

Zero clue how they have that bad of logistics for the quarter regarding S/X. That excuse doesn’t really hold weight. Why would there be 9k in transit when those S/X should have been shipped out at the beginning of the quarter. I can understand 2-3k in transit. But 9k in transit when you’re entire production for the quarter is 19k is just bad logistics planning.

 

[Todd Burch]

Already being framed as a bit of a miss. CNBC article (bolding is mine):

According to a mean of estimates, compiled by FactSet as of Friday, Wall Street was expecting Tesla to report deliveries around 432,000 vehicles for the quarter. Estimates included in the FactSet analysis ranged from 410,000 to 451,000 deliveries expected.

The independent researcher who publishes under the handle TroyTeslike was expecting deliveries of 427,000 and production totaling 445,920 vehicles.

Can't say I am not disappointed deliveries weren't closer to 430K. Nothing in long term, but not sure this will pop the stock...at least until folks realize it is against the backdrop of a crap market in China, etc.

Sounds like a Lora Kolodny article? lol

 

[bkp_duke]

Zero clue how they have that bad of logistics for the quarter regarding S/X. That excuse doesn’t really hold weight. Why would there be 9k in transit when those S/X should have been shipped out at the beginning of the quarter. I can understand 2-3k in transit. But 9k in transit when you’re entire production for the quarter is 19k is just bad logistics planning.

Meh. S/X are now such a blip that they no longer make meaningful input on financials.

 

[EVNow]

The independent researcher who publishes under the handle TroyTeslike was expecting deliveries of 427,000 and production totaling 445,920 vehicles.

I had to chuckle that CNBC quoted @Troy ... but my hats off to @Troy for all their effort. Well within the targeted 3% error margin.

ps : Inline with my expectation ... though at points I was wondering whether EM will ask the sales teams to stop selling exactly at 420k

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Meh. S/X are now such a blip that they no longer make meaningful input on financials.

Im not arguing that the big miss on S/X is all that important. It’s not important.

But it will be a material hit on margins and there will be plenty of cars bear narratives around S/X until we get Q2’s numbers

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

440+480+520+560 = 2 million. Can't see how that won't happen unless there´s some major macro headwinds.

 

[bkp_duke]

Im not arguing that the big miss on S/X is all that important. It’s not important.

But it will be a material hit on margins and there will be plenty of cars bear narratives around S/X until we get Q2’s numbers

I'm more interested in Tesla Energy deliveries. I wish we got that info ahead of the quarterly earnings. I consider that info far more significant than S/X deliveries.

 

[bkp_duke]

440+480+520+560 = 2 million. Can't see how that won't happen unless there´s some major macro headwinds.

This is the key - macros really are poor in many parts of the world right now. New auto purchases take a major hit when that happens.

The Fed and the other central banks need to get their heads out of their asses ASAP.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Let's compare - looks like deliveries are growing given the same production. Any clues how many S/X in transit?

Today for Q1 2023

Canada pubs is a beat with "nearly 423k deliveries in Q1"... which is aboot 425K.

Tesla beats expectations with nearly 423K deliveries in Q1 2023

Tesla released their Q1 2023 production and delivery numbers this morning, setting new records for both metrics and setting the tone for what will undoubtedly be another record year. Tesla Q1 2023 Production With four [...]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[Big Time]

Congrats Troy for suppressing the stock, for profit, on national television. So you go with 405K for 90% of the quarter, then realize how far off you are and over-do it to 427K creating a miss for CNBC to talk about. Well done

 

[EVNow]

No, I am not buying that. There is a ton of inventory S/X cars in the US.
Having said that, S/X is less than 2% of the revenues for the company. At this point, if they ditch them, they may be better off...

How much inventory in EU/Asia ?

But on the whole I agree - 19k production, 10k deliveries can't be all because of transit. With 1 month of transit time, you would expect about 1/3rd of production in transit.