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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Also notable on this Master Plan. Elon Musk isn’t credited.

I’m sure he contributed, but very interesting that his name does not appear in this report at all. Clearly not an accidental omission.

Notable that Drew is the top advisor on this.

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Much like Steve Jobs greatest achievement was not any one particular product, but Apple Inc. itself, Elon’s greatest achievements are Tesla, SpaceX etc (the companies themselves, once on solid footing, which have a culture & structure to churn out amazing products & services long after Elon is no longer overseeing them day to day)
 
Does ANYONE, ANYONE AT ALL, still have some political basis as to Biden being in bed with American OEM's? I hate both political parties in the USA. However from the cheap seats Biden appears to be in concert with elon 100%.
He has lifelong ties to auto dealers, deep ties with the United Auto Workers and an emotional bond with General Motors. He’s also committed to renewables and BEV’s. Given his long refusal to acknowledge the existence of Tesla it is a ‘bridge too far’ to imagine being ‘in concert with Elon…on any practical subjects. Still Tesla wins on IRA.
 
Anyone capable of reading the following article? Should contain some extra information about 4680 development

Can't seem to access it from Belgium.
 
Basically Tesla's misson has changed from
"To accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible"

to

"To accelerate the advent of a sustainable global energy economy through end-use electrification and sustainable electricity generation and storage"
Yep! They 'officially' branched out around 2019.

OG mission statement (blog post from 2013):
The Mission of Tesla | Tesla
"Our goal when we created Tesla a decade ago was the same as it is today: to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible."

Updated around 2019:
https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/tesla-impact-report-2019.pdf
"Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy."
 
I’m glad to see Tesla accounting for producing hydrogen for running the Haber-Bosch process to make ammonia. The mods here once removed a couple posts of mine on this subject to Off Topic Galore, and my attempts to get questions about this on earning calls have never received enough shareholder votes to make the cut. Now I feel validated and vindicated. Sweet, sweet justice 😊.

Many notable omissions:

1) No estimates of how the lower cost and higher usefulness of renewable energy will increase the quantity demanded relative to current energy demand. Basic economics. When a substitute good arrives that is better and cheaper than the traditional option, markets consume more of it. Tesla's MPP3 thesis begins with the statement that the current energy economy is wasteful and points out that electric motors and heat pumps will increase efficiency, but they omit the next step of the analysis that would predict that lower marginal costs of consuming energy will likely increase the average wastefulness of energy consumption over time. Nor does Tesla include estimates based on autonomous driving, proliferation of robots, internet of things, 5G, and other new energy-hungry technologies just waiting to gobble up cheap solar power.

2) Sustainable chemicals and lubricants. Tesla mentions Fischer-Tropsch synthesis for the first time ever, but only for producing fuels for boats and aircraft and not for anything else. Petroleum and natural gas are also used for non-fuel applications; energy is not the only problem to solve for sustainable civilization, but a bunch of electricity will be needed for the carbon capture and hydrogen production feedstocks for F-T synthesis. We need plastics, solvents, lubricants, synthetic rubber, wax, asphalt, pharmaceuticals, etc.

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3) Boring Co and SpaceX integration in Tesla’s plan as Elon had promised a year ago. There are some obvious possibilities for Boring Co and Tesla, but not clear how SpaceX fits in besides maybe the carbon capture and F-T synfuels aspect.

4) In line with point 1, desalination. Climate change and human use patterns are drying up rivers, lakes and aquifers. This is a serious problem, existential risk to civilization. Indoor agriculture and shrinking the animal food industry could help but I’m not going to bank on either of these happening with certainty. Desal mainly has two problems, energy and distribution of both the waste and freshwater produced. The energy cost is going to fall and Boring Co underground aqueducts might be of use for distribution.

5) Computation and data transmission. The Internet, AI training, data centers and cryptocurrency mining are still growing rapidly, with total volume of processing and transmission continually outpacing the savings from energy efficiency improvements. Information technology electricity consumption has been growing exponentially for decades with no end in sight. Tesla does not appear to have modeled for this in MPP3 in their assumptions about the demand for electricity.

In summary, MPP3 looks like a conservative base case which represents Tesla’s estimates of the minimum that needs to happen to transition the world to sustainable energy without introducing austerity policies. However, I doubt that it will even be on the right order of magnitude of what will really happen if solar and battery cost trends continue, and, as Tesla noted, the targets of MPP3 would require merely 0.2% of Earth's land area so there's plenty of room for upside. I still stand by the general reasoning I presented in this thesis last year:
While the points are all valid and a concern, I think they started with the base because the base is as high as it can be to society right now. Hell, our government can't even make up its mind on EV tax credits, when in reality it should be pretty easy to set. We have to walk before we can run...sucks because most on here are ready to run....

Also, in the beginning of the report, they say this:

This is a significant simplification and could be an area for improvement in future analyses, as global energy demands are different from the U.S. in their composition and expected to increase over time
 
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This week, all the macro indicators have been strongly bearish, including today's initial jobless report coming in higher than expected (228k vs 200k expected). Isn't this supposed to be good news because it makes it more likely for the fed to stop rate hikes and/or even start cutting rates?

Does anyone have a reason other than 'the game is rigged' to explain why the market hasn't been seeing these indicators as good news?
 
So I guess Tesla will go deep into E-chem Battery Factories, Transportation - Mining/Refining and Electrolyzers...

Basically Tesla's misson has changed from
"To accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible"

to

"To accelerate the advent of a sustainable global energy economy through end-use electrification and sustainable electricity generation and storage"

Will take some time for Wallstreet to understand that this change has happened...
That's a good point.

Tesla really does need to update its mission statement.
 
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Reactions: Artful Dodger
This week, all the macro indicators have been strongly bearish, including today's initial jobless report coming in higher than expected (228k vs 200k expected). Isn't this supposed to be good news because it makes it more likely for the fed to stop rate hikes and/or even start cutting rates?

Does anyone have a reason other than 'the game is rigged' to explain why the market hasn't been seeing these indicators as good news?
There are no good options at this time. Left turn land mine right turn cliff, straight on brick wall and there’s no going back.
 
The way the stock is thrashed is sickening.

Got to wonder whether I am irrational or the mkt is irrational.

Also the absurd volume on a daily basis , it has become a betting
vehicle, not an investment. 25 million shares traded and its only
10 am.
At least it is consistent across the board, i would be much more upset if everything else was up except $TSLA :)
 
Shorties were ready with a nice hit piece.
1680790522944.png
 
Largest ETF launches with TSLA in it's top 5 holdings

USCA​


While the fund has 306 holdings, nearly 20% of its weighting, 19.35% to be exact falls in the hands of 5 mega cap giants. The five largest portfolio weightings in USCA are Apple (AAPL) at 5.40%, Amazon (AMZN) at 3.94%, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) at 2.81%, Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) at a combined 5.09%, and Tesla (TSLA) at 2.11%.