Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

Just my short summary of the terrible energy costs being forced onto Californians and how they must impact Tesla's ability to sell EVs, solar, and storage. California's 3rd version of net metering went into effect on April 15th, 2023. NEM 3.0 features a 75% reduction in export rates. Each locale is unique in California, but my TOU plan that is geared towards EV usage, charges me off-peak $0.24/kWh and on-peak of $0.62/kWh. NEM 3.0 cuts my export rate to $0.08, according to estimates. So NEM 3.0 obviously deters anyone from ever wanting to export anything extra. No oversized systems to help the grid here. Furthermore, it pushes ROI out since savings are only on reducing the rate of your own consumption and can no longer be helped by exporting. I guess you could say it encourages BES because you'd rather keep over-production for yourself than to export it at $0.08. Lastly, current proposals to increase grid connection charges based on income will further delay ROI on installing solar and/or BES, because owners will be asked to spend much of the "savings" previously used to justify ROI on grid connection fees instead.

California doesn't seem to have the same commitment to being a green energy leader as they once did and I'm not sure how it can't have some impact on California sales figures for Tesla products. I only hope these laws are repealed and this greed doesn't make its way across the country.

 

[GhostSkater]

Model Y already has gigacastings, which will be significant part of Project Highland to update the Model 3.

I think that the 48v low-voltage architecture is the most likely common change, but suppliers will have to be ready. Might use the lower volume Model 3 line to test the new automation for wiring harness installation, then move it to the Model Y worldwide with their learnings.

Cheers!

There is probably much more

No sources but a nice read here lol

Specially the info from a user that is supposedly a Tesla engineer

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/10mr8gy/_/j65yrgu

 

[MP3Mike]

Just my short summary of the terrible energy costs being forced onto Californians and how they must impact Tesla's ability to sell EVs, solar, and storage.

Lastly, current proposals to increase grid connection charges based on income will further delay ROI on installing solar and/or BES, because owners will be asked to spend much of the "savings" previously used to justify ROI on grid connection fees instead.

I suspect the income based connection charges might back-fire on them. Why would you pay ~$1,500/year just to be connected to the grid? Just spend more to over-size your solar/battery systems, maybe have an emergency back generator, and disconnect from the grid altogether. (Since it sounds like you can disconnect from the grid now.)

So, we may see more Tesla energy sales to high-income earners in California.

 

[Max Plaid]

Don’t know about other countries, but Belgium and The Netherlands now have dynamic tariff price plans. With all the solar and wind energy in those countries, there are plenty of times in the week where charging your car is significantly cheaper than the regular price. So you can basically charge cheaply from the electricity the neighbours are generating with their solar panels. Even though the weather is cloudy today, and we’re still only beginning of may, although it’s a weekday, 1PM-5PM is now the cheapest time of day to charge your car in Belgium and The Netherlands if you have a dynamic tariff. This will only become cheaper in the future. But not many people know this.

And how does one get a dynamic tariff?

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Reuters, but if true delayed production of 4680 by Panasonic.

Question is how important Panasonic production is for initial CyberTruck ramp.

Panasonic delays production of new Tesla battery to improve performance

Panasonic said on Wednesday that it will delay the commercial production of its 4680 battery cells championed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk and begin operations during the April to September period in 2024, later than previously scheduled, as the company aims to improve their performance.

www.reuters.com

 

[NicoV]

Just my short summary of the terrible energy costs being forced onto Californians and how they must impact Tesla's ability to sell EVs, solar, and storage. California's 3rd version of net metering went into effect on April 15th, 2023. NEM 3.0 features a 75% reduction in export rates. Each locale is unique in California, but my TOU plan that is geared towards EV usage, charges me off-peak $0.24/kWh and on-peak of $0.62/kWh. NEM 3.0 cuts my export rate to $0.08, according to estimates. So NEM 3.0 obviously deters anyone from ever wanting to export anything extra. No oversized systems to help the grid here. Furthermore, it pushes ROI out since savings are only on reducing the rate of your own consumption and can no longer be helped by exporting. I guess you could say it encourages BES because you'd rather keep over-production for yourself than to export it at $0.08. Lastly, current proposals to increase grid connection charges based on income will further delay ROI on installing solar and/or BES, because owners will be asked to spend much of the "savings" previously used to justify ROI on grid connection fees instead.

California doesn't seem to have the same commitment to being a green energy leader as they once did and I'm not sure how it can't have some impact on California sales figures for Tesla products. I only hope these laws are repealed and this greed doesn't make its way across the country.

That’s just the realisation in California that there’s no free lunch wrt excess solar production. All countries/regions will sooner or later go to a system that places a market value on injection prices rather the ”consumption price equals production price” in the early years of solar. Such a mechanism is not sustainable when you have so much solar that it’s above the instantaneous consumption. You either need to throw it away, or store it in a battery.
We ‘ve gone through this process in Flanders and it caused a lot of angry solar panel owners. But you can’t give 50 cents/kWh for excess production if there’s no party willing to pay for it. The solution is dynamic tariffs (demand shifting) or storage (whether at home or in the grid). And on a longer term, introducing processes that are totally uneconomic at current rates, but useful at near zero rates: making hydrogen, water desalination, carbon capture etc. That’s better than throwing the energy away.
I just checked our local tariffs (Flanders) and we get between 5 and 9 eurocents/kWh for injection, while buying from the grid is more like 30 to 35 eurocents. I don’t feel this made any difference in Tesla (or EV in general) sales, because the electricity cost is just a very small portion of the EV TCO.

 

[Stretch2727]

Now GM and Ford have another 'battery supply' excuse for Q2 earnings! Brilliant!

Looks like 12 volt batteries so likely some alternates available.

 

[NicoV]

And how does one get a dynamic tariff?

You need to have a Flemish smart meter, and then you can switch via Dynamic energietarief | ENGIE I’m not sure if it is already available in the rest of Belgium (it’s a regional matter).—EDIT: the FAQ says it’s only available in Flanders and not yet in Brussels or Wallonia.
Engie doesn’t advertise it. They probably only offer it because I think there obliged by law.

 

[bkp_duke]

I suspect the income based connection charges might back-fire on them. Why would you pay ~$1,500/year just to be connected to the grid? Just spend more to over-size your solar/battery systems, maybe have an emergency back generator, and disconnect from the grid altogether. (Since it sounds like you can disconnect from the grid now.)

So, we may see more Tesla energy sales to high-income earners in California.

There are also serious privacy concerns about this. I'm not going to share my income with a 3rd party utility. And the state tax authority better not share it, that's a breach of privacy, in my view. Lawsuits abound if this gets implemented.

But to your point, I've done the math, I've had Solar + PWs for 6 years now. I'm 98-99% self-sufficient, and for the few times I can't and would deplete the powerwalls, that's what a mixed fuel generator tied into the system will accomplish.

 

[larmor]

There is probably much more

No sources but a nice read here lol

Specially the info from a user that is supposedly a Tesla engineer

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/10mr8gy/_/j65yrgu

This might explain how they will get a cybertruck to 500 miles range, because currently would have required a several tons of batteries, (puns intended).

 

[Stretch2727]

There is probably much more

No sources but a nice read here lol

Specially the info from a user that is supposedly a Tesla engineer

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/10mr8gy/_/j65yrgu

Although I would buy a ludicrous Model 3 in a second I doubt they will go upmarket with the Model 3 with air suspension and longer range. It's the opposite of the direction they have been heading as the recently introduced LR has reduced range. I don't believe most people will pay that much more to go from 300 to 400 mile range with the availability of the Tesla superchargers. I certainly would not. Look how Lucid is doing with a 500 mile range. Maybe some day we will have 400-500 mile cars but the battery cost will be way lower than it is today.

Based on investor day and the cost focus, I think we will see a moderately improved Model 3 with lots of cost savings underneath. (Castings, 4680, etc.).

 

[keydiver]

That's about the typical battery life, but I believe it's because of the prismatic cells rather than the chemistry. Most Prius (at least in the Prius Chat) replaced the battery when they became swollen. In some cases there were some third party cell replacements, but they were tricky to do because the replacement cells had to match the originals.

People on the East Coast are fortunate enough to have HybridBattery911: Hybrid Battery 911 | Mobile Hybrid Battery Replacement
My 2006 Prius battery was already going at 140,000 miles, and I could have had Hybrid Battery 911 replace it with a completely refreshed pack for $1000 at the time, but I traded the car instead. Unfortunately, one acquaintance of mine had the dealer replace his pack for $8,000, before I could tell him about Hybrid Battery 911. But, another friend, who drives almost every day down to Miami, and had ~250,000 on his 2012 Prius, asked me what he should do. Hybrid Battery 911 came to his house and completely replaced his pack (with all new cells) for $1100. I have to wonder how many battery packs Toyota is replacing every week at $8000, vs $1100 for a rebuilt pack, which they certainly don't want their customers to know about.

 

[bruce4000]

That’s just the realisation in California that there’s no free lunch wrt excess solar production. All countries/regions will sooner or later go to a system that places a market value on injection prices rather the ”consumption price equals production price” in the early years of solar. Such a mechanism is not sustainable when you have so much solar that it’s above the instantaneous consumption. You either need to throw it away, or store it in a battery.
We ‘ve gone through this process in Flanders and it caused a lot of angry solar panel owners. But you can’t give 50 cents/kWh for excess production if there’s no party willing to pay for it. The solution is dynamic tariffs (demand shifting) or storage (whether at home or in the grid). And on a longer term, introducing processes that are totally uneconomic at current rates, but useful at near zero rates: making hydrogen, water desalination, carbon capture etc. That’s better than throwing the energy away.
I just checked our local tariffs (Flanders) and we get between 5 and 9 eurocents/kWh for injection, while buying from the grid is more like 30 to 35 eurocents. I don’t feel this made any difference in Tesla (or EV in general) sales, because the electricity cost is just a very small portion of the EV TCO.

Yes people need to realize that exporting to the grid is not just about money. The Utility has to balance the demand and production on the grid every second of every day. It normally does this by ramping up generation up or down. But if there becomes large amounts of solar generated that it does not control, the Utility can only reduce its generation by so much and you will get over voltage situations. So either batteries on homes or grid batteries or other demand that can be controlled will be needed.

 

[keydiver]

Reuters, but if true delayed production of 4680 by Panasonic.

Question is how important Panasonic production is for initial CyberTruck ramp.

Panasonic delays production of new Tesla battery to improve performance

Panasonic said on Wednesday that it will delay the commercial production of its 4680 battery cells championed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk and begin operations during the April to September period in 2024, later than previously scheduled, as the company aims to improve their performance.

www.reuters.com

As far as I know, Tesla has never indicated that they have any intention of sourcing 4680's from Panasonic. IMO, that is something Panasonic just decided to do on their own. Also, I really doubt that they are using the dry electrode technology that Tesla is at this time. Maybe that is why they are deciding to wait?

 

[marcobel]

You need to have a Flemish smart meter, and then you can switch via Dynamic energietarief | ENGIE I’m not sure if it is already available in the rest of Belgium (it’s a regional matter).—EDIT: the FAQ says it’s only available in Flanders and not yet in Brussels or Wallonia.
Engie doesn’t advertise it. They probably only offer it because I think there obliged by law.

You need SMR3 . ( Smart Meter Regime 3 )

 

[Knightshade]

As far as I know, Tesla has never indicated that they have any intention of sourcing 4680's from Panasonic.

LG & Panasonic rumoured to supply Tesla’s 4680 battery cells | electrive.com

www.electrive.com

According to an agency report, Panasonic and LG Energy Solution are to supply the 4680 cells for the Tesla Cybertruck. Apparently, this was not originally planned. Tesla is said to have not yet reached the targeted energy density with its own 4680 cells of the first generation.

That's from about 2 months ago....take with appropriate amounts of NaCL

 

[Singuy]

11.4.1 notes release. Apparently even .1 releases come with all new notes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656396186532839424

 

[Hock1]

Introducing Ultra Red | Tesla (Mar 09, 2023)

Thanks. I forgot about that. I rejected it off the bat because my wife has the Tri-coat red S LR already, (plus I'm not that fond of red). Thinking more silverish, or light metallic blue or even BRG (British Racing Green)

 

[Singuy]

Oh god, so apparently RH is enabling 24hrs weekday trading for some securities, among one of them is Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656404057794150400

 

[GhostSkater]

This might explain how they will get a cybertruck to 500 miles range, because currently would have required a several tons of batteries, (puns intended).

Yeah

My estimation for Cybertruck pack with no seats or any of the interior attached is right around 1000 kg + margin of error, maybe less