Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[heltok]

Today it clicked for me. It's so obvious what Elon intends to do. Earlier today he posted:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661928353006493696

What does this mean?

For the last few months he has been saying how hard it is to get hold of nVidia A100s for his different companies, talking about back alley deal, how it's harder to get than drugs. Not unlike how hard it was for him to buy a Russian rocket. Well how does Elon react to other people not wanting to do business with him?

Here are 2 pictures to ponder:

(look at the data center vs gaming lines)

At AI day he said that Dojo would be 6x cheaper than A100.

Then think about these numbers:

Datacenter is like 66% of nVidia earnings and growing 3x faster(ie 3x higher PE) than gaming over the last 3 years, YoY it was +14% vs -38%... Obv datacenter is a huge part of nVidia's market cap.


Does Tesla and nVidia's relative market cap make any sense? Should Tesla be spending hundred of millions in back alleys trying to get hold of those A100? X.ai?

So how far along is Dojo? 2 years ago at AI day it could train GPT.

AI day 2022 they were talking about how they optimize it for parallelization and were overcoming piezo-electric bugs when they pushed them to the limit. They were gonna build there first exapod in Q1 2023 that would 2.5x their labelling capacity...

Half a year ago they intended to 10x their capacity over the next year and 100x the next year. And they already had one of the biggest nVidia clusters in the world. This was before chatGPT and nVidia taking of like a rocket and the world going crazy for compute. And by now they likely have had their first exapod up and running for a few months with 6 more to build in Palo Alto.

I have a strong feeling that Elon thinks it's crazy that nVidia has a higher market cap, when Tesla's product is 6x better, and that he intends to take over the datacenter market. The tweet was him hinting that Tesla is coming for their lunch. And usually when he says things like that he means it...

Will Tesla sell the chips? Maybe, if they cannot build the clusters fast enough themselves. If nVidia can get that high market cap just selling them, that is at least a proof of concept for that strategy. Maybe doing a a competitor to AWS/Azure/GCP is better, maybe not, but at least they have one proven strategy as an option.

So what does this mean? For the next for quarters I expect extra capital expenditures and then in a few more quarters expect Tesla to slowly eat nVidia's datacenter market cap. Because it doesn't make sense that nVidia are overcharing everyone for a worse product, having a higher market when Tesla could do it better. For a product that scales very fast and has a demand that is expected to grow every year. And it will be the life blood of Tesla and X.ai over the next years, so why not secure it even more?

 

[Krugerrand]

"Stolen data" is how we find out about corruption.

Nowadays you can just assume corruption; at the very least BBB (borderline bad behavior). Even Tesla at this point employs people and people can always be counted on to behave like people.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Not all, but about half the N. American Tesla Superchargers will be available to Ford customers in early 2024.

Ah, only v3 … I wonder why? Maybe Tesla doesn’t want Fords to clog the neighborhood 72kW chargers.

 

[ggies07]

Let that sink in...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662047422397251584

So I just sent this stat to my brother-in-law who I've been trying to get him to see the light of this whole sustainable transition event and months ago had sent him a whole PDF of links with vids and articles and this was one of them.

I've said it before, but man do I miss Jack. Would love to get his thoughts on the Cybertruck once it comes out.

He was spot on and this was back in 2020....Starting at 3:46:

"I can tell you right now, before the first Cybertruck ever rolls, Tesla will make so many of these, that it's going to be freighting."

 

[MP3Mike]

is a ford lightning charging at 350kw slower than a tesla? Even in my simple stripped lightning I initiate charging over 150kw at many EA, most lightning will do 300+.

Why do you keep making stuff up to try to make Ford look better than they are? No F-150 Lightning will do 300+kW, they max out at about 160kW:

 

[davecolene0606]

"Stolen data" is how we find out about corruption.

I thought Whistle blowers were? Stolen data might be a source, but sitting on it while one sifts through it instead of reporting it appropriately speaks volumes about the organization that accepts the stolen data.

"Its the batteries... Stupid!"

 

[Big Time]

Source? I'm not finding anything about a deal, everyone saying it's going down to the wire over the long weekend without it being settled.

Mario’s twitter space

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes, however, there might be one skilled electrician for two to three robots. It takes an electrician to properly size wiring and plan runs etc. but pulling the wire and installing the conduit could be a robotic job (no one likes to pull wire).**

You're kidding, right? Do you know that A.I. is now doing chip layout for large semi-conductor design houses? 1 Engineer is now doing in a day what used to take 10 (expensive) Engineers 2 weeks.

This AI Learned to Design Computer Chips! (The View of a Chip Engineer) | Anastasia In Tech (Feb 14, 2023)

** [make up ur own joke here]

 

[TrendTrader007]

Why is TSLA acting like John Wick 4 in Paris?
I did not see this coming
I was about to sell all my TSLA and go all in NVDA because everyone on Wall Street is doing so and WS is always right!

 

[lascavarian]

"Perhaps" being the key word there.

As understood best by the Dodo, or any other species which demonstrated how it was unfit for survival.

Absolutely! It will not go unnoticed however that EM owns an entire social network, a best of class charging network, a lead in autonomous driving and increasing momentum.

Arrogantly laying down before a steamroller is not a dealership survival strategy as I see it. But the “perhaps“ is still there.

If they can’t stop the CT making big advances in mid America then their goose is cooked. Why not get a good seat on the life raft. YMMV

 

[davecolene0606]

So I just sent this stat to my brother-in-law who I've been trying to get him to see the light of this whole sustainable transition event and months ago had sent him a whole PDF of links with vids and articles and this was one of them.

I've said it before, but man do I miss Jack. Would love to get his thoughts on the Cybertruck once it comes out.

He was spot on and this was back in 2020....Starting at 3:46:

Sure do miss Jack... incredible knowledge and insight.

"It's the batteries... Stupid!"

 

[lascavarian]

Remember that the dealers are no longer one brand of car per dealer anymore. The largest ones would likely dump Ford rather than give up their cartel. If you own ten or more brands of car, giving up one is less painful than allowing Tesla to expand.

Good argument. Lots of bucks on the line. Mega dealers have to hold mid America from going to the CT. If they lose there then they are cooked as I see it. YMMV

 

[Krugerrand]

So is the aim 189.99 or 190.01 today?

 

[30seconds]

Today it clicked for me. It's so obvious what Elon intends to do. Earlier today he posted:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661928353006493696

What does this mean?

For the last few months he has been saying how hard it is to get hold of nVidia A100s for his different companies, talking about back alley deal, how it's harder to get than drugs. Not unlike how hard it was for him to buy a Russian rocket. Well how does Elon react to other people not wanting to do business with him?

Here are 2 pictures to ponder:
View attachment 941195
(look at the data center vs gaming lines)

At AI day he said that Dojo would be 6x cheaper than A100.

Then think about these numbers:
View attachment 941196
Datacenter is like 66% of nVidia earnings and growing 3x faster(ie 3x higher PE) than gaming over the last 3 years, YoY it was +14% vs -38%... Obv datacenter is a huge part of nVidia's market cap.


Does Tesla and nVidia's relative market cap make any sense? Should Tesla be spending hundred of millions in back alleys trying to get hold of those A100? X.ai?

So how far along is Dojo? 2 years ago at AI day it could train GPT.

AI day 2022 they were talking about how they optimize it for parallelization and were overcoming piezo-electric bugs when they pushed them to the limit. They were gonna build there first exapod in Q1 2023 that would 2.5x their labelling capacity...

Half a year ago they intended to 10x their capacity over the next year and 100x the next year. And they already had one of the biggest nVidia clusters in the world. This was before chatGPT and nVidia taking of like a rocket and the world going crazy for compute. And by now they likely have had their first exapod up and running for a few months with 6 more to build in Palo Alto.

I have a strong feeling that Elon thinks it's crazy that nVidia has a higher market cap, when Tesla's product is 6x better, and that he intends to take over the datacenter market. The tweet was him hinting that Tesla is coming for their lunch. And usually when he says things like that he means it...

Will Tesla sell the chips? Maybe, if they cannot build the clusters fast enough themselves. If nVidia can get that high market cap just selling them, that is at least a proof of concept for that strategy. Maybe doing a a competitor to AWS/Azure/GCP is better, maybe not, but at least they have one proven strategy as an option.

So what does this mean? For the next for quarters I expect extra capital expenditures and then in a few more quarters expect Tesla to slowly eat nVidia's datacenter market cap. Because it doesn't make sense that nVidia are overcharing everyone for a worse product, having a higher market when Tesla could do it better. For a product that scales very fast and has a demand that is expected to grow every year. And it will be the life blood of Tesla and X.ai over the next years, so why not secure it even more?

I thought Elon's last comments on their chips was that 2023 was the year to prove that the Dojo chips were an actual cost effective replacement for nVidia. Would be nice to get an update.

 

[30seconds]

Agree. Two other points:
1) I see this as another "gentrification of Mordor" move. Ford and Tesla are now linked.
2) A stake in the heart of the "coal-powered EV" BS. Ford AND Tesla will now charge at a 100% renewable infrastructure in NA.

Seriously, though. What is VW's move here? (GM is currently irrelevant.) Increasingly, EV brands will be viewed a "left out" if they are not using Tesla Superchargers. This could rapidly cascade into NACS domination.

I'd like to see similar deal with Hyundai/ Kia. Personally I think they are in front of Ford on their commitment to EVs.

 

[jerry33]

Were this true the cheapest cars would consistently be the biggest sellers. They are not.
Within a given size and shape class the cheapest is rarely the highest seller. Even with Japanese Kei cars the best sellers are not the cheapest ones.

Pure price is a significant issue to be sure. It is almost never the only or even the major factor. Without question price promotion can and does shift purchase timing and volumes from one source to another.

The marketing world simply is not that simplistic, no matter the price promotions.
For Tesla just take a quick look. The cheapest ones are not the biggest sellers. Price promotions and announcements does generate attention and generate buying interest.
Just look at any OEM average (mean, mode or median-any one of them) and it becomes abundantly clear that the role of price is rather more complex than many of us seem to think.

Correct, but price often gets people in the door.

 

[TrendTrader007]

that toxic little concoction of TSLL and December 2025 $390 calls on margin that I brewed working just fine
Let’s see how rest of the day goes
Not financial advice

 

[jerry33]

You're kidding, right? Do you know that A.I. is now doing chip layout for large semi-conductor design houses? 1 Engineer is now doing in a day what used to take 10 (expensive) Engineers 2 weeks.

This AI Learned to Design Computer Chips! (The View of a Chip Engineer) | Anastasia In Tech (Feb 14, 2023)

** [make up ur own joke here]

Clean slate works great. Going in someone's house, figuring out what they have and adding or replacing plus working with the city inspectors is what I'm thinking about. Robots will eventually get there, but not for quite a while.

 

[Prunesquallor]

An individual going to a dealership for collision repair is not the same thing as Tesla partnering with Ford to sell and service cars through a dealership.

@lascavarian 's original post was regarding service/support. I would put damage repair in that category. Obviously, sales is a separate matter.

Perhaps the long game here is F dealerships getting some service or support role for TSLA. F has an extensive dealership network, TSLA has an extensive charging network. This could exist in various forms but IMO would be an acceleration for the adoption of EVs.

 

[MP3Mike]

I'd like to see similar deal with Hyundai/ Kia. Personally I think they are in front of Ford on their commitment to EVs.

The problem is that they went with an 800v battery, so they can only get about half of their maximum charging speed at Superchargers. (Though that is still a lot better than the broken/derated EA chargers they can use now.) If Tesla upgrades the network to 800v, I would see it as much more likely.

I think the most logical next addition is Rivian. (And RJ will get pummeled with that question at his Q&A session tonight.) But given the bad blood there, I'm not sure if Elon would be willing to do it even if Rivian wanted to.