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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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OT, Elon is on a roll. FDA approves human Neuralink implant.


I'm going to sign up for clinical trials so I can talk to my car directly. I have many questions.


I just got a chance to invest in it...with a 40% management fee.
 
Maybe I missed it, but do we know if Ford will have to pay some sort of licensing fee for having access to the SC and live mapping software? I am assuming Apple charges for CarPlay and this seems to be even more valuable.
Ford’s not going to disclose that because it takes the shine off of the deal for them. Hence why Ford is up 7% right now.

And unfortunately for us Tesla doesn’t seem to care about disclosing the financial terms in deals like this. We’ll have to wait until Q1 2024’s earnings to see what Ford is paying Tesla and how they’re doing it ( payment fee up front, payment per Ford Pass that’s activated, etc…)

Let’s also not forget that this deal doesn’t change the current structure for Tesla where all non Tesla EV’s are charged a higher rate than Tesla owners. Tesla can at anytime up those rates even more to generate more profit…which I genuinely hope they do.
 
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Based on a 190 call wall, I'm guessing this baby closes at 189.99 today, then over 200 next week to catch up. Steady climb to Q2 earnings.
Sometimes I think the powerful money wants TSLA to gradually rise, avoid FOMO and overshoot like last time that likely wiped out many shorts. Seems all too easy to cap it every time. It's gonna take a blowout quarter + FSD revenue to break through. Is 240 still the technical challenge?
 
Based on a 190 call wall, I'm guessing this baby closes at 189.99 today, then over 200 next week to catch up. Steady climb to Q2 earnings.
Sometimes I think the powerful money wants TSLA to gradually rise, avoid FOMO and overshoot like last time that likely wiped out many shorts. Seems all too easy to cap it every time. It's gonna take a blowout quarter + FSD revenue to break through. Is 240 still the technical challenge?
Inventory levels across the world are trending down. Given that Berlin/Austin hit 5k/week over the past month, I would have to imagine they average somewhere around 4,000-4,200/week for Q2. Which means production across all factories would support a delivery number of 475k, if not 500k. Not saying it’s going to happen but it’s hard to understand how inventory can be dropping worldwide while production has materially ramped this quarter and not get a delivery number significantly higher than expectations
 
This is monthly chart TSLA
Once it breaks 19 months long trendline to upside like $207 to $210 range, then the games begin
Until then it’s just a waiting game
In my personal opinion, $400+ will likely happen before 2023 is over
Not investment or financial advice
I’m usually wrong
IMG_2364.jpeg
 
Ford’s not going to disclose that because it takes the shine off of the deal for them. Hence why Ford is up 7% right now.

And unfortunately for us Tesla doesn’t seem to care about disclosing the financial terms in deals like this. We’ll have to wait until Q1 2024’s earnings to see what Ford is paying Tesla and how they’re doing it ( payment fee up front, payment per Ford Pass that’s activated, etc…)

Let’s also not forget that this deal doesn’t change the current structure for Tesla where all non Tesla EV’s are charged a higher rate than Tesla owners. Tesla can at anytime up those rates even more to generate more profit…which I genuinely hope they do.
Since Tesla is in the driver's seat (indulge the pun), I'm pretty sure we will end up finding out this partnership is a better deal for Tesla than it is for Ford.
 
Based on a 190 call wall, I'm guessing this baby closes at 189.99 today, then over 200 next week to catch up. Steady climb to Q2 earnings.
Sometimes I think the powerful money wants TSLA to gradually rise, avoid FOMO and overshoot like last time that likely wiped out many shorts. Seems all too easy to cap it every time. It's gonna take a blowout quarter + FSD revenue to break through. Is 240 still the technical challenge?
No, the technical challenge continues to move lower as the 200-day and the trend channel continue to go lower. In my opinion, the first technical challenge is 200. That's close to the 200 day and TSLA always seems to find resistance at whole numbers. After that, I think your 240 number is probably pretty relevant because that's where the Lower High trend line starts to look broken.
 
Ford’s not going to disclose that because it takes the shine off of the deal for them. Hence why Ford is up 7% right now.

And unfortunately for us Tesla doesn’t seem to care about disclosing the financial terms in deals like this. We’ll have to wait until Q1 2024’s earnings to see what Ford is paying Tesla and how they’re doing it ( payment fee up front, payment per Ford Pass that’s activated, etc…)
Hopefully we can get a succinct question about it on the Q2 conference call. Something straightforward like "Is Ford paying a licensing fee for Supercharger access?" Of course they won't say "Ford is paying us $XXX/car" but I could see Elon/Zach at least hinting at what type of agreement is in place.

As a side note, does anyone with experience in licensing deals have a WAG as to how much a fair licensing fee would be for something like this?
 
Seriously….no thank you.

We Tesla owners have held through the years where Tesla has been pouring money into building out the Supercharger network. If institutional investors want a piece of that recurring revenue and profits as it finally switches from being a money sink to a money printer, they should have to buy TSLA. Not some spin off company. Would be a slap in the face to Tesla investors.

It would be no different than Tesla spending years and tons of money on FSD and then Optimus only to spin off those companies. Screw that
Agreed, but I would take it as a 2:1 dividend. That is for every share of TSLA you get a dividend of two shares of TSUP.
 
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Yes, but how would a "for-profit" Ford dealer offer Tesla's service when Elon has explicitly said Tesla will never make service a profit center? Maybe 3rd party servicing doesn't apply to that claim?
Good comment. It could go several ways IMO. Labor pricing is flexible in my experience. IE TSLA could buy 5000 hrs of labor at a volume discount where pricing works out pretty much the same. But really the point would be that TSLA is not adding a profit cut on top but are passing costs straight through as one possibility.

Seems this could go to another thread so not wanting to go too far into the weeds on this. Hello 194!
 
This is monthly chart TSLA
Once it breaks 19 months long trendline to upside like $207 to $210 range, then the games begin
Until then it’s just a waiting game
In my personal opinion, $400+ will likely happen before 2023 is over
Not investment or financial advice
I’m usually wrong
View attachment 941245

To counter your opinion with my opinion, I don't think TSLA will get above $275 in 2023. However, once the Fed starts lowering rates in 2024 I think we'll finally start climbing closer towards our ATH, and maybe by the end of 2024 we'll get back there. Maybe. But likely we'll cross $414 sometime in 2025 IMHO.

Not financial advice, of course! :p