Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WattsHappening]

Is there a link to hear Mary and Elon, or a transcript?

There's no sound on the Twitter link.

Not sure if you're experiencing the same thing as me. But when I try to listen to twitter spaces on my iPhone through a browser, I get no sound. So I started using the Twitter app instead, and now the sound is back.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just wanted to mention this. As a relatively long-time observer of Tesla and Musk, the company (and Musk) have repetitively stated that, "The Supercharger network is not a profit center."

The money received, then, apparently goes into:
1. Paying for electricity
2. Paying for upkeep and repairs
3. Paying for more superchargers

And not into making $$$ for Tesla.

The idea: Make the cost of charging the car as small as possible.. so people can buy more cars.

So: Based upon this, when Ford and GM join the fun, they won't be making tons of money on Superchargers, either: But they will be selling more cars. And that's the point.

This actually not really correct. Tesla has stated that all revenue from Superchargers goes back into the things you listed but most importantly, is the continuing to expand the Supercharger network. So far, Tesla has been funding the Supercharger network all on their own. Ford, GM, and anyone else that wants to use the Supercharger network will now be paying Tesla.

The number of Superchargers Tesla was going to install and thus maintain over the next 5 years + isn't going to magically increase 2X or 3X now that Ford and GM are paying for part of the costs by paying Tesla. Tesla was already going as fast as they could logistically. Thus now, in however way they structured the deal, Ford and GM and anyone else will now be helping to cover those costs, which indirectly means Tesla's costs for expansion/maintenance will go down thus leading to more cash for Tesla.

Simple equation is if Tesla was already planning on spending 5 billion to expand the Supercharger network for the next 5 years, now Ford/GM/etc are paying, whether directly or indirectly, part of that 5 billion.

There's the other factor that while some Superchargers are very busy, there's plenty of other Superchargers that are nowhere near high usage rate, especially in Republican states. As those states turn more to EV's and those buyer go with more traditional sources for their EV's (Ford/GM), those superchargers get much more usage.

And then lastly, Tesla's stance on the Supercharger network is focused on the mass adoption of EV's. Tesla's fine with subsidizing/absorbing the costs right now. Don't be surprised if, when EV's reach mass adoption, and widespread the cost of an EV is on average on par with gas or below, that Tesla decided to recoup a lot of their investment from the past 10+ years of the Supercharger network.

 

[ls7corvete]

If nacs gets even more traction I wonder if Tesla could take over EA and convert those fairly inexpensively to superchargers. The power is there, just need kiosk and some wiring?

I think that would be a better match for ford or gm. Tesla is way ahead; the others need an acquisition to catch up.

 

[bkp_duke]

I see a much bigger play from Tesla here: DATA

Tesla will now have very detailed information on the competition in terms of charging curves, battery sizes and degradation (can track by VIN), usage patterns, market penetration of different model vehicles . . .


And that's just the tip of the iceberg. Veritable treasure trove of information available once fleet charging stats are available.

 

[jerry33]

This actually not really correct. Tesla has stated that all revenue from Superchargers goes back into the things you listed but most importantly, is the continuing to expand the Supercharger network. So far, Tesla has been funding the Supercharger network all on their own. Ford, GM, and anyone else that wants to use the Supercharger network will now be paying Tesla.

The number of Superchargers Tesla was going to install and thus maintain over the next 5 years + isn't going to magically increase 2X or 3X now that Ford and GM are paying for part of the costs by paying Tesla. Tesla was already going as fast as they could logistically. Thus now, in however way they structured the deal, Ford and GM and anyone else will now be helping to cover those costs, which indirectly means Tesla's costs for expansion/maintenance will go down thus leading to more cash for Tesla.

Simple equation is if Tesla was already planning on spending 5 billion to expand the Supercharger network for the next 5 years, now Ford/GM/etc are paying, whether directly or indirectly, part of that 5 billion.

There's the other factor that while some Superchargers are very busy, there's plenty of other Superchargers that are nowhere near high usage rate, especially in Republican states. As those states turn more to EV's and those buyer go with more traditional sources for their EV's (Ford/GM), those superchargers get much more usage.

And then lastly, Tesla's stance on the Supercharger network is focused on the mass adoption of EV's. Tesla's fine with subsidizing/absorbing the costs right now. Don't be surprised if, when EV's reach mass adoption, and widespread the cost of an EV is on average on par with gas or below, that Tesla decided to recoup a lot of their investment from the past 10+ years of the Supercharger network.

There are plenty of high use chargers in Republican states. Expansion will come none too soon.

 

[Big Time]

Still climbing

 

[ZeApelido]

I saw Model 3 Highland on I-280 earlier today. Luckly pictures came out well as I was driving 80 mph w/o Autopilot.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666880658776678400

 

[Artful Dodger]

Then if they can figure a way to give Tesla owners a lower price to supercharge than other types of automobiles, it might cause more people to buy a Tesla instead of a Ford or GM.

No, Tesla will not do that. That's what get's you busted up as an abusive monopoly via the Sherman Antitrust Act.

Instead, Tesla will focus on the Mission: "To Accelerate the Transition to Sustainable Energy".

As Elon tweeted almost 1 year ago:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "Don’t build moats, build tech trees" / Twitter (Jun 14, 2022)​

Which branch is about to leaf out on the Supercharger Network? Megapacks on V4. Then Solar farms. Then Grid services. It's like a living organism...

Talk the talk; Walk the walk. ​

Cheers!

 

[MP3Mike]

degradation (can track by VIN),

VIN isn't exchanged in the CCS protocol... But obviously some unique identifier can be used. (Rivian doesn't currently supply a unique identifier, they use the same MAC address on every vehicle, which is why they aren't supported for EVgo's AutoCharge feature.)

 

[JRP3]

I kept it all the way down. I sold on a significant rise. And I listened to elon.

And I asked those that comment be nice

My reply was not to you but you made 3 mistakes:

1. Not taking some profits at higher price points, (assuming you didn't)
2. Selling everything, (if you think the company is a good long term investment)
3. Listening to Elon

 

[Southpasfan]

This actually not really correct. Tesla has stated that all revenue from Superchargers goes back into the things you listed but most importantly, is the continuing to expand the Supercharger network. So far, Tesla has been funding the Supercharger network all on their own. Ford, GM, and anyone else that wants to use the Supercharger network will now be paying Tesla.

The number of Superchargers Tesla was going to install and thus maintain over the next 5 years + isn't going to magically increase 2X or 3X now that Ford and GM are paying for part of the costs by paying Tesla. Tesla was already going as fast as they could logistically. Thus now, in however way they structured the deal, Ford and GM and anyone else will now be helping to cover those costs, which indirectly means Tesla's costs for expansion/maintenance will go down thus leading to more cash for Tesla.

Simple equation is if Tesla was already planning on spending 5 billion to expand the Supercharger network for the next 5 years, now Ford/GM/etc are paying, whether directly or indirectly, part of that 5 billion.

There's the other factor that while some Superchargers are very busy, there's plenty of other Superchargers that are nowhere near high usage rate, especially in Republican states. As those states turn more to EV's and those buyer go with more traditional sources for their EV's (Ford/GM), those superchargers get much more usage.

And then lastly, Tesla's stance on the Supercharger network is focused on the mass adoption of EV's. Tesla's fine with subsidizing/absorbing the costs right now. Don't be surprised if, when EV's reach mass adoption, and widespread the cost of an EV is on average on par with gas or below, that Tesla decided to recoup a lot of their investment from the past 10+ years of the Supercharger network.

The amazing thing was always how poor other charging networks were compared to Superchargers. These announcements are great because anything which promotes the Supercharger network is great for Tesla.

First, anyone with a non-Tesla is going to wonder why these so called great legacy companies couldn't get a charging network together that worked, when all you have to do with a supercharger is pull up and charge.

Second, all those non-Tesla owners are going to park next to a bunch of Teslas.

What I don't quite know is how much this helps the build out. That seems the main detail we don't have.

 

[Tronguy]

This actually not really correct. Tesla has stated that all revenue from Superchargers goes back into the things you listed but most importantly, is the continuing to expand the Supercharger network. So far, Tesla has been funding the Supercharger network all on their own. Ford, GM, and anyone else that wants to use the Supercharger network will now be paying Tesla.

The number of Superchargers Tesla was going to install and thus maintain over the next 5 years + isn't going to magically increase 2X or 3X now that Ford and GM are paying for part of the costs by paying Tesla. Tesla was already going as fast as they could logistically. Thus now, in however way they structured the deal, Ford and GM and anyone else will now be helping to cover those costs, which indirectly means Tesla's costs for expansion/maintenance will go down thus leading to more cash for Tesla.

Simple equation is if Tesla was already planning on spending 5 billion to expand the Supercharger network for the next 5 years, now Ford/GM/etc are paying, whether directly or indirectly, part of that 5 billion.

There's the other factor that while some Superchargers are very busy, there's plenty of other Superchargers that are nowhere near high usage rate, especially in Republican states. As those states turn more to EV's and those buyer go with more traditional sources for their EV's (Ford/GM), those superchargers get much more usage.

Um. I did say, “Building more superchargers.”

Admittedly, Ford and GM will be paying into the party. But the “Not a profit center” comment I take as Tesla neither gaining nor losing money on Superchargers.

So.. For this part of the business, they take in payments, pay salaries to workers, build hardware, pay utilities, repair stuff. Net should be zero.

Add Ford and GM: I’d guess a dollop of capital to build more SCs to prime the pump. But the additional users will be funding the expansion and such, just like now.

From Ford’s and GM’s perspective.. well, Tesla’s competitors in the EV DC space are all for-profit companies. In principle, they all have to do what Tesla’s doing and generate a profit to keep investors happy as well. Tesla’s not doing profits.. so, given the resulting shortage of cash, is it any surprise that they’re all having trouble keeping their hardware running?

Word gets out that the likes of EA chargers are unreliable. So, GM and Ford either have to put a serious slug of capital into all these companies to get the chargers more reliable (which would likely be ongoing); live with reduced adoptation and reduced sales for years; or both of the former; while their BEV-buying clients pay higher rates than Tesla once the VC money runs out; or.. pay some money to Tesla now to help fund the immediate expansion, then stop paying generally. No-brainer time. Cheaper, better, faster, what’s not to like?

The only problem in the long term might be that the Supercharger business might blow its competitors out of the water, seeing as they can provide the network at more-or-less cost. If the only option is an SC, there’ll be issues with them becoming a monopoly. In which case spinning the business off with its own BOD or something might be an option.

We’ll see.

 

[Sancho]

Ford and GM adopting the Tesla charging standard could be a pivotal moment in how WS perceives Tesla.

Most WS folks I know have been dismissive of Tesla from the start. They have always assumed that legacy auto would eventually overtake the upstart. And for a decade they have twisted every Tesla positive to fit their worldview. For the vast majority it’s not malice, it’s just cognitive rationalization.

Tesla profitable? Only because of energy credits. Highest customer satisfaction? Early adopter fanboys.

But THIS NEWS is mind shifting for WS types, because the recognition of Tesla superiority is not coming from fanboys, but from Big Auto. Their peeps.

Once the veil is pierced, WS may be open to re-examining everything we talk about here. Hmm, MY is now the top selling car. Hmm, M3 costs less than many popular ICE cars. Hmm, drivers using FSD have far fewer accidents. Etc.

Our minds protect ourselves from cognitive dissonance. Until they can’t. And then paradigms shift.

 

[Stretch2727]

Um. I did say, “Building more superchargers.”

Admittedly, Ford and GM will be paying into the party. But the “Not a profit center” comment I take as Tesla neither gaining nor losing money on Superchargers.

So.. For this part of the business, they take in payments, pay salaries to workers, build hardware, pay utilities, repair stuff. Net should be zero.

Add Ford and GM: I’d guess a dollop of capital to build more SCs to prime the pump. But the additional users will be funding the expansion and such, just like now.

From Ford’s and GM’s perspective.. well, Tesla’s competitors in the EV DC space are all for-profit companies. In principle, they all have to do what Tesla’s doing and generate a profit to keep investors happy as well. Tesla’s not doing profits.. so, given the resulting shortage of cash, is it any surprise that they’re all having trouble keeping their hardware running?

Word gets out that the likes of EA chargers are unreliable. So, GM and Ford either have to put a serious slug of capital into all these companies to get the chargers more reliable (which would likely be ongoing); live with reduced adoptation and reduced sales for years; or both of the former; while their BEV-buying clients pay higher rates than Tesla once the VC money runs out; or.. pay some money to Tesla now to help fund the immediate expansion, then stop paying generally. No-brainer time. Cheaper, better, faster, what’s not to like?

The only problem in the long term might be that the Supercharger business might blow its competitors out of the water, seeing as they can provide the network at more-or-less cost. If the only option is an SC, there’ll be issues with them becoming a monopoly. In which case spinning the business off with its own BOD or something might be an option.

We’ll see.

For those sayingTesla makes no money on super chargers Elon has stated the margin goals. Not sure if they are hitting 30% gross margin.

Elon Musk Says Tesla Aiming At 30% Gross Margin For Supercharger Network - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk said on Sunday that the electric vehicle maker is aiming at a 30% gross margin or about 10% profitability including all costs for its Supercharger network business.

www.benzinga.com

 

[Stretch2727]

I saw Model 3 Highland on I-280 earlier today. Luckly pictures came out well as I was driving 80 mph w/o Autopilot.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666880658776678400

I find it very interesting the rear glass is covered. The other Highland pictures I have seen do not have this cover.

Please be a hatchback like the Model S! I know it would hurt the Model Y but personally I think they are going to sell all they can make of both.

 

[Cattledog]

Ford and GM adopting the Tesla charging standard could be a pivotal moment in how WS perceives Tesla.

Most WS folks I know have been dismissive of Tesla from the start. They have always assumed that legacy auto would eventually overtake the upstart. And for a decade they have twisted every Tesla positive to fit their worldview. For the vast majority it’s not malice, it’s just cognitive rationalization.

Tesla profitable? Only because of energy credits. Highest customer satisfaction? Early adopter fanboys.

But THIS NEWS is mind shifting for WS types, because the recognition of Tesla superiority is not coming from fanboys, but from Big Auto. Their peeps.

Once the veil is pierced, WS may be open to re-examining everything we talk about here. Hmm, MY is now the top selling car. Hmm, M3 costs less than many popular ICE cars. Hmm, drivers using FSD have far fewer accidents. Etc.

Our minds protect ourselves from cognitive dissonance. Until they can’t. And then paradigms shift.

Next shoe to fall might be legacy O&G refineries, like Valero, who operate thousands of service stations (Bucee's already seems to be all in) to add TSLA superchargers in some way. Can't wait.

BTW, to all those who think the club of people who lost a *sugar*-ton January 22-January 23 while making a *sugar*-ton before is small, it's in fact quite large.

It's a good club. As self-appointed president, welcome.

Let's go forth together.

We're back on mission.

 

[TesslaBull]

I find it very interesting the rear glass is covered. The other Highland pictures I have seen do not have this cover.

Please be a hatchback like the Model S! I know it would hurt the Model Y but personally I think they are going to sell all they can make of both.

A hatchback M3 would be super amazingly awesome. Personally, I prefer not to sit way up in the air like a truck, reducing aerodynamics, safety, handling, and efficiency. The *only* thing I like about the Y is the utility of the hatchback. M3 hatchback would be the shizzle! And probably our next car!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Y'all got it all wrong, SP move today and AH is because of:

Paywalled so i am not going to link it, but still funny.

 

[Unpilot]

Since we coming clean on selling shares....I sold 200@205 to pay some taxes.

THAT is why the SP rose.

Your welcome.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So I wonder what the future of magic dock is now?