Good points. I was using worldwide figures. Your North Amercian figures are more appropriate. Nevertheless, the overall sense of my post remains what I was trying to convey.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Drumheller
Active Member
I would be shocked if rivian doesn’t follow suit…would be death for them imo if they don’t. If they do, then the R1S immediately becomes a legit option for our next EV to replace our last ICE vehicle. Otherwise, won’t even consider it.
Rivian likely would need to settle the lawsuit Tesla has filed against them for, alleged, IP theft before Tesla would consider an agreement. (Some of the theft was supposedly even about building out a charging network.)
Captkerosene
Member
I think he hurts the stock. Gary says FSD/Bot worth +/- zero. Elon says that's where the majority of the value is. The value of TSLA is in the unknowns ... not the knowns. "What's in the box?"
The Whitehouse's rules were because the industry, except Tesla, were on or moving to CCS1. They wanted it.I'd say if most EV makers make the switch to NACS then the White House will very likely change to accommodate the market. With Ford and GM behind Tesla the UAW would probably force them to. Give it time, like maybe a couple more weeks!
Whitehouse probably rather annoyed Ford and GM have changed now, after extensive discussions which probably pre-date the rules when they could have signaled intent.
Maybe when NACS is a documented standard with a standards body they can shift the rules a bit in terms of CCS and NACS counts.
Wasn’t aware of that but if they don’t they have no chance imo.
It's Friday, which implies a weekly TSLA options expiration day. My survey of today's options open interest and trading volume suggest that either $247.50 or $250 could be the most profitable closing target for large option writers (market makers and hedge funds) with the ability to manipulate the share price. Activity over the next 2.5 hours could solidify which number is more appropriate.
cliff harris
Member
I appreciate gary keeping the stock grounded. Elon has said a LOT of things about FSD over a very long period, almost all of them laughably optimistic. I bought an S85D in 2015 which was just a software update away from being fully autonomous. Spoiler: it was not.
We need people like gary to keep the cheerleaders in check. I'm an FSD owner, even in the UK, and very excited about it, but I think the truth of its actual value right now is way closer to gary's view than Elons.
My 2022 model Y has FSD so amazing it cannot even do autopark. Thats with HW3. They are now on HW4. At some point you just stop believing the timeline.
The White House just restated the existing rule that federal funding for chargers requires CCS, and it's acceptable to also provide an additional type of connection. There's nothing new here.
must disagree with
1) he is typical arrogant WS MBA... with no real world experience building products ....
2) he luckily stumbled into TSLA stock recently (just past few years it seems to me) ... was whining thru his first real true test as a TSLA shareholder about advertising, Twitter overhang and sundry other false narratives... to calm his client base.
3) He still does not understand Tesla at a fundamental level , nor does he understand Elon ... still only values Tesla as a car company ...although he has recently begun to understand energy ...
4) He just seems greedy , does not really understand the mission and the power of disruption(see his advertising rants) and that Tesla will pivot to whatever attains the mission , Megapacks , Mining , Robots, FSD, letting others use Supercharger network ... etc.
5) I am blown away that he has a Tesla vehicle yet does not factor FSD into his outlook ... i suppose he may not drive FSD ... although as an analyst with a large position you would think he would get it just to have latest revisions first hand ... i bought FSD because i have significant # shares it is a cost of investing in my mind ...
I agree with
1) he helps me understand wall st. thought process and when to pick up cheap shares ... when he and Ross are bitching the loudest probably a good time to grab more Tesla shares ..
2) he studies the company closely and still does not get it so it provides insight into how little other analysts that only dabble understand ...
3) that he is willing to come on You tubers channels such as Farzad and give his opinion
4) one more + he is willing to support Tesla and TSLA on CNBS and other MSM channels
I have listened to him quite a bit and will continue to based on the above
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GhostSkater
Member
Same, other than the fact I don’t have the money or live in the US/Canada, even if I sold my position
For real, I’m happy that you guys are happy that it’s going up, but I wish there was more time at low prices, haven’t been able to buy for months and will not be able to for a few more due to other priorities unfortunately
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
FWIW- while my opinions of FSDs "progress" is pretty similar to yours (and I say that having been on the beta for a couple years now too) you mention being promised full autonomy in 2015... but FSD wasn't even introduced as a thing until October 2016.
Haven’t posted in a while.. just wanted to commemorate the first day since 2012 that I stand to make no gain from any further appreciation of TSLA.
Sold all my leaps over the last 2 weeks and the remaining shares are all spoken for by covered calls that are now in the money as of $245. And I added a few puts for good measure.
This board has been invaluable in my investing journey, so thank you all!
I’ll be back in TSLA when the dark clouds clear, or the profitability picture of Giga Mexico/FSD/energy becomes easier to model, or if we get back below 200.
Sold all my leaps over the last 2 weeks and the remaining shares are all spoken for by covered calls that are now in the money as of $245. And I added a few puts for good measure.
This board has been invaluable in my investing journey, so thank you all!
I’ll be back in TSLA when the dark clouds clear, or the profitability picture of Giga Mexico/FSD/energy becomes easier to model, or if we get back below 200.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Sorry for clogging up the TSLA investor thread while I go through the other manufacturers one by one and consider their plights.
Rivian - yes they should switch, and the low number of previous buyers will just have to live with being a legacy "OG" version of their manufacturer's products. I mean, Roadster V1 owners are driving around and don't feel ashamed about J1772, do they?
Lucid - I feel bad for these guys as they have 2,000 unsold cars sitting outside the factory in the parking lot. First Principles solution would be to retrofit them all before they are delivered. (IMO they would be in more demand if they got retrofitted) That would be costly and take time - not just because the re-design has to be expedited. Peter Rawlinson's displeasure re: anything to do with Tesla is surely costing that company time and money. Perhaps the Saudis can move him to one side.
Apple - surely any new Apple car (if it actually exists) will use the NACS connector, though I found it hilarious that when they were demonstrating "widgets" on their new OS products the other day, they showed a Lucid widget - instead of the BEV brand Apple employees probably drive more than any other
Toyota/Honda/Subaru/Mazda/Stellantis - this opportunity must surely be a new, uninjured foot that they haven't shot themselves in yet. Their BEV sales across all brands have been zero or so low that they can make this switch easily and offend the fewest. If they continue with CCS2 in the USA it will be one more nail in their coffin - along with the other nails
Nissan have the most goodwill among Japanese manufacturers after the Leaf, and will make the switch because the Ariya hasn't really gotten off the launchpad yet in big numbers, and need sales - the company isn't in fantastic shape. An Infiniti BEV w/ NACS connector makes a lot of sense here for people who crave individuality and don't want to be searching for their car in parking lots (like us Lesla owners are doing lol)
BBA - gotta assume they will all switch. I think BMW have seen the most sales so far but they have plenty of profits to throw at the re-engineering.
The final two in my list will feel the most pain.
VW should switch because they are most closely associated with dieselgate and have the $2billion fine on their record - leading to Electrify America which they executed on so poorly that it must surely look like it was deliberate sour grapes. (The failure of the U.S. Government to properly police and execute on that fine will also look bad when we look back.)
Hyundai/Kia/Genesis have made what I think is most honest, decent attempt among other manufacturers to sell a decent number of BEVs in the USA, and this has just been a big headache for them. I feel sorry, but, we are talking about a complete pain-in-the-butt that has been coming to all manufacturers selling CCS2-equipped cars in the USA anyway. It could have been a lot, lot worse - if the dominoes didn't start falling like this until 2025. The process has begun in 2023 and the hurt is going to be smaller as a result. America has turned out to be messy for legacy manufacturers, as the government, who focuses on oil+gas, has not been particularly interested in supporting BEVs. Thus we have the patchwork quit of semi-working CCS2 charging sites and the debacle that has unfolded. Hyundai will also make the switch. The only question is will they do it next... or after somebody else does it next.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
EPIC Rant by Sandy regarding NACS vs. CCS.
I just discovered that my TD Ameritrade Acct is a margin acct. I never asked for one, nor use it ever. So those cheese balls were loaning out my shares behind my back? And to short the stock and try to scare me into selling these same shares? All these years?
This reminds me of a real cheese ball thing I did once in college. A friend loaned me a guitar for a while. I got literally got hungry and decided I'd just pawn the guitar and get it out next install before he found out. Needless to say, I lost a friend when he asked for it and it took me a day or two to pay the bond. Like I said, real cheese ball move. 228 was not too proud of me in those early years.
So ya, TD Ameritrade just did that to me, over and over again. Right?
This reminds me of a real cheese ball thing I did once in college. A friend loaned me a guitar for a while. I got literally got hungry and decided I'd just pawn the guitar and get it out next install before he found out. Needless to say, I lost a friend when he asked for it and it took me a day or two to pay the bond. Like I said, real cheese ball move. 228 was not too proud of me in those early years.
So ya, TD Ameritrade just did that to me, over and over again. Right?
In the beginning...
Almost 11 Years ago.
Almost 11 Years ago.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Pretty sure you can call them up and say "don't ever lend my shares" and they have to legally oblige.
The Roadster actually pre-dates even J1772 as a standard; it's a completely proprietary plug. Once J1772 was standardized you could buy an adapter cable, about 3' long, from Tesla, but then @hcsharp came out with his "cans", which I have to say are great. First was a J1772-Roadster, then a (what is now)NACS-Roadster. Both are about the same size as a soda can.
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