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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
petit_bateau
Active Member
It may come as a surprise to some, but Ireland is in Europe. In every way. (So too is the UK of GB, which also may surprise some). Fantasy geography should be avoided.
When I looked recently at these UK-specific £38k model 3 offers there was a link to "contact Tesla sales for more info" and it was not clear where the cars actually were. I had initially thought they were ex-demo vehicles but scanning through the listings it seemed most likely to me on reflection that the cars were still on the car-carriers en route from China.
The UK economy is in a difficult place, and the UK is also a good market to do experimentation in. Also - as you rightly say - the model 3 is not such an easy sell in the UK as it is not a hatchback. If a model refresh that turns the 3 into a hatchback is about to be revealed, then swiftly cleaning out inventory in advance is sensible.
I don't see that in my search(es) from the UK, either. Odd.
Hahaha, my good fellow—are you new here? This pittance is nothing to get angry about, $9B is a small chunk of change in the big scheme of things these days. And it is just a loan, after all (I mean, that's what we're told), it’ll probably be paid back, at least part of it. Ford is in desperate need of a lifeline right now, so what’s a $9B loan between friends?
The bigger story is Musk’s recent World Tour, meeting with heads of state of France, Italy and India (and who knows who else?), continuing the build out of the Tesla Empire. That’s the real story and the one you should be focused on and enthused about. Brighter days are very likely ahead for the TSLA investor.
“Furious,” haha. Just three years ago the central banks printed TRILLIONS of dollars for a shut down economy, no questions asked, no debate; now that’s something to get a bit rankled about; it’s bad enough Wall Street fleeces the public, it’s really bad when the governments get in on the game. But whatever, this is how democracy works, behind closed doors and out of public view. Always has, always will. And I know you know that. Now go take a cheeky spin in your Tesla. Life is short, enjoy it.
The difference between a medium sized pond that is 50% overgrown with algae and dead is only a couple of days. I believe the collapse of ICE will be rapid once a critical point is reached.
I hope so...though how are all those ICE car owners and dealerships going to be compensated on their losses? The pie of ICE car owners is astronomical compared to EV owners even if there's so many tailwinds towards EVs and electrification. I suspect there's going to need to be a cash for clunkers type of program to speed this process up and make everyone happy enough not to revolt.
e.g. Get Ready for Mega Cash for Clunkers, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas Says
Collapse of the ICE fleet does not occur until many years after the collapse of ICE manufacturing.
Used cars still have utility as long as there are their are gas stations and repair shops. Gas, shops, and parts will continue to exist in proportion to the demand induced by the remaining fleet.
Ya know, predatory lending comes to mind. Drop the down payment, 0% interest, everyone would buy one. They could become toxic assets before the collapse as dealers and banks take higher and higher lending risks to keep them selling. (Avoid those banks when the time comes.)
Maybe a good weekend topic: What replaces the gas stations en masse? Might be good areas of future investment.
I'd prefer:
- Parks/Playgrounds
- EV charging stations
- Restaurants
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
There will have to be production of tens of millions in place before the big ICEberg melts away. This will take ten to twenty years overall as the used ICE will get shuffled down market and the oil companies will continue to feed them.
The important pivot is to be seen in new car sales. From what I've read and heard from folks who have studied transition, once exponential growth eclipses the 5%-7% of market share the pivot is underway.
So, the pivot is underway and new car sales will see the S-curve adoption. But, until there is a large market of used BEVs there will be used ICE roaming the planet.
To me, this means that the transition will be slow and steady as production ramps up and current ICE owners will transition to electric over a period of a decade or two, as limited by production. If production ramps sooner, the ICE age ends sooner.
And, guess who's in the catbird seat for making out like a bandit over that period?
HODL
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Correct, but people who purchase used cars generally don't drive them as far, so mostly they sit parked more often than new cars and are less likely to be used on trips or long commutes.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
If statistics support this it would be interesting. I can see how it might make sense.
As someone who has routinely purchased used cars at near 100K miles and over three to five years have driven them to 200K, or 300K, or more on occasion, my personal experience is contrary.
You are overlooking the set of people who only have used cars. I'm pretty sure I have more lifetime miles on used than new (definitely more years, 2/3 have been used).
Unless mass transportation increases a bunch, the needed fleet size won't decrease. Reduced vehicle availability will increase used prices which will incentivize people who don't need their second car to sell it. Or incentivize more repairs to existing cars.
Superfund sites to clean up the leaking tanks?
Weekend off topic: Please excuse the off topic question.
Going to Maui in a few weeks and looking at rental cars, Model 3's are widely available but I don't know what kind of charging infrastructure to expect. Not many Tesla superchargers so I'm obviously going to be relying on other charging methods. Anyone had any experience? At this point, I'm considering just get a conventional gas vehicle for convenience sake .... yuck!
Thanks, in advance!
Go TSLA
Going to Maui in a few weeks and looking at rental cars, Model 3's are widely available but I don't know what kind of charging infrastructure to expect. Not many Tesla superchargers so I'm obviously going to be relying on other charging methods. Anyone had any experience? At this point, I'm considering just get a conventional gas vehicle for convenience sake .... yuck!
Thanks, in advance!
Go TSLA
In many cases it will be an expensive plot to develop. Years of oil and gas spills in the ground forcing developers to do a large cleanup job before anything else can be built there.
And I belive many will transition from convenience stores with gas pumps to convenience stores with EV chargers.
Andy O
Member
I disagree. Reduced ICE vehicle availability will be more than compensated for by the developed preference for EVs. As the general superiority of EVs become apparent, used ICE prices will fall. People will hold onto their old ICE vehicles, and, yes, repair them.
Dikkie Dik
If gets hard, use hammer
Good view of the CybrFrunk
And Franz showed up at Petersen cars and coffee with a CyberTruck.
And Franz showed up at Petersen cars and coffee with a CyberTruck.
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There's one caveat to this. I bet you know how to get out of a roadside bind, maybe do some repairs yourself. I'm the same way, every trip came with a serious tool box in the trunk. I'd be concerned to go far without it. My "good" tires were $13 each used (I tried to match the rears for height, but not always). And my '63 Buick usually had a spare starter in the trunk along with hoses and belts and 2-4 gal of antifreeze. I'm guessing I got it up to about 250K mi. there.
But aren't the parts going to become more rare and costly? These 2nd and 3rd tier legacy suppliers, does anyone think they all survive when their key customer is also going under? My Buick sure was a challenge for parts. Only the parts also used on a common set of vehicles.
Then there's the shaming approach to accelerate transition. It would take a long time, but if folks had a choice to use ICE or EV Rideshare, even Robotaxi... just social pressure could go a long way. But that's a few years out still, right? Keep in mind, the Atlantic is coughing up storms pretty early in the season, and my forecast said 114F next week.
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