Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

The European countries with daily data just managed to beat last quarter, thanks to the extra day:

Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 15 countries, majority of BEV market

Not all countries have the data available through 6/30 so this is going to end up a bit more than it shows right now.
Nice to see how finally the wave is coming down.

Standard disclaimer: This is just a small part of the total European market so not representative.

 

[AudubonB]

My point being the rabid attention on each quarterly report seems outsized to me.

This is one-dimensional thinking; it suggests a lack of understanding of how much importance others - for better or for worse - place on the information disseminated in quarterly reports, and how such move the market.

So: how much importance? A: A LOT.

 

[Patrick66]

It seems unlikely that even these Megapacks would keep continuous plant operation through another Feb 2021 style Snowpocalypse like we experienced here. But most of our grid outages occur on smaller timescales than days, and Megapacks would cover many of those.

FWIW, the Megapacks only back up a small portion of the load in Austin-- "Emergency" loads by the looks of it. Also, their benefit to the grid is on a milli-second/second/minute/hour basis and they aren't needed for "days" of support. They help to keep a brown-out from propogating to a full black-out when a large plant trips offline.

 

[mongo]

FWIW, the Megapacks only back up a small portion of the load in Austin-- "Emergency" loads by the looks of it. Also, their benefit to the grid is on a milli-second/second/minute/hour basis and they aren't needed for "days" of support. They help to keep a brown-out from propogating to a full black-out when a large plant trips offline.

The Megapacks have multiple connections to the plant. There are at least two direct 24.9kV connections for backup power. It also routes to the switchyard which can route the full MP output to the main plant transformers with the grid isolated. How much of the plant load 131MW will support is a big question though.

 

[NicoV]

Exceptionally low electricity prices tomorrow in several EU countries. In The Netherlands there’s 3 hours in a row with negative 0.5 euro/kWh prices: Market Data | EPEX SPOT

 

[Christine69420]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675094695356006403

From Twitter:









Kairav

@TeslaKairav

Tesla Q2 Delivery Estimates
@TeslaBoomerMama
442,000
@CuriousPejjy
446,532
@TeslaKairav
447,000
@TroyTeslike
448,000
@oracletim1
449,000
@garyblack00
450,000
@TSLAFanMtl
450,000
@EmmetPeppers
450,000
@thejefflutz
457,000IR Consensus: 446,823$TSLA


12:51 PM · Jul 1, 2023
·
21.1K
Views

 

[AndrewZ]

Probably because it doesn't matter that much. Real-time lithium prices aren't what Tesla pays. From all that I've gathered, they pay an average over X number of months. Not sure if it's 3 months or 6 months, or even longer. You can literally see that in their COGS and from comments directly from management, especially Zach. There's a delay on when Tesla actually realizes the change in price of commodities.

From what management has said, Tesla hasn't even yet realized the massive 60%+ drop in Lithium prices yet.

I’ve written quite a few posts on here about not knowing how Tesla’s (or their supplier’s) procurement contracts are structured around these commodities but nonetheless saw a number of posts about lithium prices dropping from the high and haven’t seen any about them heading back up (but haven’t been checking as often).

Comments on the last earnings call were mostly to the effect that their long-term contracts give them less exposure to spot price changes but aiming for further tailwinds in the second half of the year

 

[CorneliusXX]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675094695356006403

From Twitter:




Kairav
@TeslaKairav

Tesla Q2 Delivery Estimates
@TeslaBoomerMama
442,000
@CuriousPejjy
446,532
@TeslaKairav
447,000
@TroyTeslike
448,000
@oracletim1
449,000
@garyblack00
450,000
@TSLAFanMtl
450,000
@EmmetPeppers
450,000
@thejefflutz
457,000IR Consensus: 446,823$TSLA


12:51 PM · Jul 1, 2023
·
21.1K
Views

The groupings are so tight in these estimates with only 3% range high to low. Trimming the highest and lowest predictions leaves a range of 0.8% - that's less than 3/4s of one day of production - basically arguing about an extended lunch break.

 

[UkNorthampton]

In many European countries, Model Y (and 3 previously) held records for most cars sold in various months, countries and looks like Model Y is best seller across all of Europe. Amazing* when you consider the other contenders are often much smaller and cheaper cars. Many outside the European market may not know what these other higher-selling models are. In a spoiler, I've put some images. In general, they are small hatchbacks - and are a much better form factor for much of Europe due to parking, road sizes etc. It's not necessarily a cost thing as plenty of high-performance/expensive versions are sold too ("Hot Hatch").

Note that Peugeot 208 includes electric versions.

*Actually, it's truly astonishing, Kia Picanto from £13,415 ($17,045). Model Y from £44,990 or $57,167. Prices include taxes. More than 3 times the price and in Netherlands 1702 Tesla Y vs next best seller - Kia Picanto at 1112.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675374744588406785

Spoiler: Text of tweet

Tsla Chan
@Tslachan

$TSLA @elonmusk
BREAKING: Tesla Model Y is the most registered vehicle in the Netherlands in June. 1,702 units are registered.Tesla(brand) registered 2,618 vehicles during June, posting a 7% market share, according to the article.




6:24 AM · Jul 2, 2023
·
7,849
Views

Spoiler: Picanto-Peugeot208-polo-etc-images

Peugeot 208

VW Polo (Smaller than a Golf)

 

[Unpilot]

This is one-dimensional thinking; it suggests a lack of understanding of how much importance others - for better or for worse - place on the information disseminated in quarterly reports, and how such move the market.

So: how much importance? A: A LOT.

That's the thing about opinions...we all have them.

Your opinion is I have one dimensional thinking and a lack of understanding.
Since I don't know you, I will refrain from such a characterization.

My opinion is the outsized focus on quarterly reports is silly.

You can take the A LOT position....I'll take the not so much opinion.

 

[cliff harris]

In many European countries, Model Y (and 3 previously) held records for most cars sold in various months, countries and looks like Model Y is best seller across all of Europe. Amazing* when you consider the other contenders are often much smaller and cheaper cars. Many outside the European market may not know what these other higher-selling models are. In a spoiler, I've put some images. In general, they are small hatchbacks - and are a much better form factor for much of Europe due to parking, road sizes etc. It's not necessarily a cost thing as plenty of high-performance/expensive versions are sold too ("Hot Hatch").

Note that Peugeot 208 includes electric versions.

*Actually, it's truly astonishing, Kia Picanto from £13,415 ($17,045). Model Y from £44,990 or $57,167. Prices include taxes. More than 3 times the price and in Netherlands 1702 Tesla Y vs next best seller - Kia Picanto at 1112.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675374744588406785

Spoiler: Text of tweet

Tsla Chan
@Tslachan

$TSLA @elonmusk
BREAKING: Tesla Model Y is the most registered vehicle in the Netherlands in June. 1,702 units are registered.Tesla(brand) registered 2,618 vehicles during June, posting a 7% market share, according to the article.


6:24 AM · Jul 2, 2023
·
7,849
Views

Spoiler: Picanto-Peugeot208-polo-etc-images

View attachment 952582
View attachment 952583
Peugeot 208

View attachment 952584
VW Polo (Smaller than a Golf)

It is truly amazing.
I do think a lot of Europeans would prefer the smaller, cheaper model 3, but absolutely insist on a hatchback.
If Tesla had a hatchback model 3 I think it would sell extremely well, especially if they can get the price lower. A shorter range model would likely sell well, especially for people in cities.

I get the impression Tesla are still designing cars for California. Wide, large, with long range and extreme acceleration. The cybertruck is even more American. The classic US imagery of your car towing your boat on a roadtrip with 3 kids and a ton of sports equipment in the car is so alien to many of us in Europe.

There was a lot of talk of a china-designed Tesla, but AFAIK nothing actually happened?

 

[kbM3]

Shouldn’t the P&D report be out any minute, or is it 9am central time normally?

Edit: Never mind. It’s normally 9 am Pacific time.

more waiting

 

[Hiline]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675094695356006403

From Twitter:




Kairav
@TeslaKairav

Tesla Q2 Delivery Estimates
@TeslaBoomerMama
442,000
@CuriousPejjy
446,532
@TeslaKairav
447,000
@TroyTeslike
448,000
@oracletim1
449,000
@garyblack00
450,000
@TSLAFanMtl
450,000
@EmmetPeppers
450,000
@thejefflutz
457,000IR Consensus: 446,823$TSLA


12:51 PM · Jul 1, 2023
·
21.1K
Views

So … what actual number would be high or low enough to move stock price?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Steven Peeters demonstrates the new Plaid Model S "Track Pack" achieving a top speed over 200 mph on an unrestricted segment of German Autobahn: (N.B. 328 kmh = 203.8 mph)

Those aren't just some 7 League Boots, Audi...

Cheers to the Quickest and the Fastest: TESLA PLAID.
P.S. On behalf of Norwegians, I'd just like to say "SHEEEIIITTT!"

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675492091479171074

 

[EQC_]

What does the tweet say?

Just that Tesla is expected to report numbers by 9 Pacific... Nothing material yet.

Also the link to Teslas site:

Tesla Investor Relations

Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. Today, Tesla builds not only all-electric vehicles but also infinitely scalable clean energy generation and storage products.

ir.tesla.com

 

[The Accountant]

So … what actual number would be high or low enough to move stock price?

Analyst Consensus varies:

448,000 Bloomberg
446,823 Tesla IR Compiled
445,000 Factset

My guess is that the media will use the 448k as the estimate (the highest of course).
Perhaps +5k (453k or higher) or -5k (443k or lower) will move the stock.

 

[Bouboule]

The groupings are so tight in these estimates with only 3% range high to low. Trimming the highest and lowest predictions leaves a range of 0.8% - that's less than 3/4s of one day of production - basically arguing about an extended lunch break.

Yap! it feels like they are playing Ouija.

 

[Favguy]

When are we expecting to see the actual numbers anyway peeps?

 

[EVMeister]

When are we expecting to see the actual numbers anyway peeps?

~0900 PT / 1700 BST.