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According to Jason Hughes, V3 Superchargers are 800 V, but now that we learned that there is a 500 V and a 1000 V version of NACS, it probably needs the cable to be replaced

The biggest question for me is, if Tesla will upgrade V3 to 800 V, why they didn't start doing already in new installs? Each day it passes it's more and more chargers that will be needed to be retrofitted

Another possibility is that V3 are 800 V and 500 V of nice can do low 800 V ish, but not 1000 V, which also doesn't make sense

Cybertruck is likely higher voltage, but what does this means? They won't be compatible with existing V3? No way in hell. Or that they have a pack splitting contactors to switch from 400 V to 800 V? Also doesn't make sense because adding complexity isn't the Tesla way

Cybertruck deliveries should start this quarter, there is no time to retrofit enough V3 stations to not make travelling a pain with it, and none of the options above makes much sense, so I'm really curious how it will work

So far it appears that upgrades are additions to existing SC locations, so there's no individual charger upgrades. The transformers will have to be seriously upgraded as well. If anyone knows different, I'd be interested.
 
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It sounds like you don't really have a basis for refuting this aside from thinking that fleet sales at the end of quarter detract from the story or something rather than help explain numbers that caught basically everyone off guard and should be explainable (+ need to be explained).

There are ways of figuring this out down the road if it isn't a topic in the earnings call, Hertz for example produces regulatory filings and the latest suggested they still had outstanding orders for ~50,000 Teslas as of the end of 2022.


Tesla broke $400/share the week after news of the Hertz deal broke, so I'm really not getting why this would be a bad thing

I am in agreement with your sentiment that we shouldn’t see end of quarter fleet sales as somehow a bad thing if that indeed occurred. Every other OEM would die to have the option of fleet orders as a nice top up to end of quarter numbers. It is also a very good thing to get rid of stale inventory in advance of product upgrades. Rental car companies etc ain’t going to care if they get the last batch of HW3 model 3s for example (just a hypothetical).
 
Many folks think that Tesla's vehicle production output of 480K vehicles is some sort of upper bound on what was possible during Q2. I'm here to tell you it ain't so: (buckle up)
  • Shanghai has demonstrated monthly production capacity ~80K for the past 9 mths
  • Giga Shanghai has 3 GA lines: the original Model 3 line and two newer 2 Model Y lines
  • the Model 3 line is the oldest, so conservatively it has ~25K/mth capacity
  • this is the line which Telsa took down on June 1st for retooling w. "Project Highland"
  • ALL the above indicates that Tesla chose to forego ~25K of production in Q2
  • if they had chosen to, Tesla could easily have exceeded 500K production in Q2
What are the implications of this? Well, again, it likely means the new Shanghai line:
  • will produce >25K extra in H2 vs the old run rate (else why do it?)
  • it decreases COGS at an annual rate of -7% (per Pierre Ferragu)
  • consumes less physical space due to body shop robots replace w. gigacasting
  • allows installation of a 2nd Model 3 Highland line (possibly online by 2024)
What does this mean for 2023H2 Production? Well, let's add it all up:
  • 27.5K/mth Model 3 for H2 (to match Model Y output per line)
  • 6 mths of production of 3+2Y = ~500K
Does this get us to 2M total production in 2023? Well, it makes it possible. Remains to be seen when Fremont Project Highland comes online, as well as how much production there will be for Cybertruck. Also, the ramp continues for Model Y Production at both Berlin and Austin.

I say we've got a good shot at 2M production in 2023.

Cheers!

Nice post! Agree 2m looks feasible.

Would be a disruptive signal if Tesla did choose to install an additional model 3 line in Shanghai (or anywhere for that matter). Even with the upcoming major refresh (highland), the demand for model 3 - *AT CURRENT PRICE LEVELS* - seems rather balanced globally. If they were going to significantly increase output with the addition of another line, I think that would signal an intention to really stoke the fires with something like a sub-$30k model 3.

I would expect if they were able to make room for an additional assembly line at shanghai in the existing factory space, it would instead be used for a new model - maybe a Semi line would be appropriate (a van or small light truck would also be great but thats a whole new product).
 
It would make sense for Tesla not to invest in tooling for a RHD S/X if the production run is too short to recover the investment. The current S/X model is basically 3 years old, there's probably a new model around the corner. Maybe not next month or so, but I would expect a refresh within the next 12-24 months. The botched ramp of the current S/X probably killed the case for RHD S/X.
I think that is the most likely explanation. Even roadster 1.0 was available in RHD.
 
On the topic of Model 3 Highland, claims that it is also undergoing winter testing alongside the cybertruck in New Zealand:


For the RHD markets, surely much of the demand Tesla is losing from not offering the S&X RHD is offset by increased orders for performance 3 & Ys, which presumably would pick up even more after the highland refresh.

Eliminating the low volume models from these markets doesn’t just simplify Fremont manufacturing, it also makes servicing issues / parts supply etc in these markets a bit easier (halving the amount of model lines needed to be supported, excepting the pre-existing base of S/X’s).

Also it has to be acknowledged that far and away the biggest RHD auto market by value is Japan, and Tesla is virtually non-existent in that market as yet (they will get there eventually once Japan eventually caves to EVs), so really in terms of sales we are mostly just talking about UK and Australia & then a smattering of quite small RHD markets (for example here in New Zealand during seven years from 2015-2021, there were only 775 sales of S&X combined) - which arguably is more trouble than its worth, especially in the current environment where UK economy is in rather bad shape.
 
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Also it has to be acknowledged that far and away the biggest RHD auto market by value is Japan, and Tesla is virtually non-existent in that market as yet (they will get there eventually once Japan eventually caves to EVs), so really in terms of sales we are mostly just talking about UK and Australia & then a smattering of quite small RHD markets (for example here in New Zealand during seven years from 2015-2021, there were only 775 sales of S&X combined) - which arguably is more trouble than its worth, especially in the current environment where UK economy is in rather bad shape.


India has north of 300 million cars on the road (~4x # on the road in Japan though obviously "cheaper" ones) and is RHD.

Seems that might be a good place to have a factory building RHD vehicles.

Maybe Elon should sit down and talk with someone from there with some authority :)




Also, good news for folks who complain there's white teslas everywhere!


 
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For the RHD markets, surely much of the demand Tesla is losing from not offering the S&X RHD is offset by increased orders for performance 3 & Ys, which presumably would pick up even more after the highland refresh.

It's true, Tesla has yet to deliver a 'Plaid' Model 3, which could easily be adapted to use dual carbon-wrapped SRPM motors per the Model S Plaid (both the front AC motor and rear SRPM in the Model 3 use identical aluminum cases).

Perhaps the gigacastings in Project Highland will provide the extra ridgity needed to go with a 760 hp beast of a Model 3 Plaid. Perhaps a structural battery pack will also be part of the mix.

Good times! :D
 
India has north of 300 million cars on the road (~4x # on the road in Japan though obviously "cheaper" ones) and is RHD.

Seems that might be a good place to have a factory building RHD vehicles.

Maybe Elon should sit down and talk with someone from there with some authority :)




Also, good news for folks who complain there's white teslas everywhere!
Text from the tweet: "BREAKING: @Tesla has changed the free color option in North America for the Model Y & Model 3 to Midnight Silver (from White). The White color option is now $1,000 (it was free before)."

My dopey speculation: this *clearly* means the Cybertruck is coming soon. Its naked metal will similarly be silver, just a different shade. So with this change to the 3 and Y, by the time Tesla gets through most of the white 3/Y backlog in the US in a few weeks, we'll have a stream of (mostly) silver 3's, Y's and Cybertrucks hitting the road together.

A few Cybertrucks flanked by a bunch of silver 3's and Y's in formation seems like a pretty memorable image to me!
 
So far it appears that upgrades are additions to existing SC locations, so there's no individual charger upgrades. The transformers will have to be seriously upgraded as well. If anyone knows different, I'd be interested.
Not necessarily

The way V3 architecture works is that from 2 to 7 cabinets they are linked via the DC bus of up to 575 kW in/out DC per cabinet, and each cabinet serves 4 stalls

So if you have a 4 stalls / single cabinet install, the maximum total power you can have is just 350 kW, and this is one of the main reasons we rarely see 4 stalls Superchargers, if two Teslas arrive at low state of charge simultaneously, the maximum power each it will get is 175 kW, as in, you can only have one vehicle arriving at low state of charge for it to get the full 250 kW

Now, if this was a 8 stalls / 2 cabinets install, you could have 3 Teslas as low state of charge and still get almost 250 kW

12 stalls / 3 cabinets it goes up to 4 Teslas, you get the picture, if there is spare capacity on the adjacent cabinets they can do 925 kW split between the 4 stalls

But since it's rare to have multiple vehicles arriving at low state of charge at the same time, and the way Tesla charge curve is set up, you are never at full 250 kW for more than 5 minutes or so

For Cybertruck, this means that if V3 hardware can do more power, transformer power won't be a limitation as long as there is adjacent spare capacity on surrounding cabinets

This deserves as asterisk here because there is also places where there is a grid limitation, for example, a 12 stalls / 3 cabinets location that could in theory draw 1050 kW from the grid but the local grid only allows 800 kW, so every time there is headroom for more than that from the plugged cars, everyone will be throttled by some amount

But then, there is places with Megapacks that solves that for most of the situations since it can keep that peak power from the grid all the time or until it's full, and allow more charging power than the grid could when plugged vehicles demand it

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I agree that one rationale for the RHD abandonment would be that a new S/X is coming... but then we come back to Teslas really bad management in terms of signalling this.
A simple "Sadly we are not currently able to offer the S/X in RHD markets, but trust that we have no intention of abandoning those markets, and they remain important customers".
Easy to do.
But what do we get? "No more RHD S/X, and if you don't like it, here is a funny little grabby arm on a stick". Go read the UK forum, or any other UK site with Tesla owners. People here do not think this is 4D chess by Elon. There are a lot of prior and current S/X owners who have no intention of buying any more Teslas. The free grabby stick is being perceived as kicking sand in the face of long-time UK Tesla owners who helped Tesla get where it is.

It does no service at all to INVESTORS to just try and pretend this was handled well. It was handled very, very badly.
Think of Tesla as a taxi company and almost every decision going forwards will make sense. Everything else is a cowbell (not referring to energy/Optimus).
 
India has north of 300 million cars on the road (~4x # on the road in Japan though obviously "cheaper" ones) and is RHD.

Seems that might be a good place to have a factory building RHD vehicles.

Maybe Elon should sit down and talk with someone from there with some authority :)




Also, good news for folks who complain there's white teslas everywhere!



White Model Ys are so prevalent where I live that more than once I've gone up to a car and realized it wasn't mine after futzing with the door handle for a few seconds.
 
Text from the tweet: "BREAKING: @Tesla has changed the free color option in North America for the Model Y & Model 3 to Midnight Silver (from White). The White color option is now $1,000 (it was free before)."

My dopey speculation: this *clearly* means the Cybertruck is coming soon. Its naked metal will similarly be silver, just a different shade. So with this change to the 3 and Y, by the time Tesla gets through most of the white 3/Y backlog in the US in a few weeks, we'll have a stream of (mostly) silver 3's, Y's and Cybertrucks hitting the road together.

A few Cybertrucks flanked by a bunch of silver 3's and Y's in formation seems like a pretty memorable image to me!
Just to clarify, the new free color option "Midnight Silver" is gray, not silver. I have a "Silver Metallic" 2018 Model 3, which is silver. Tesla does not offer that color anymore.
 
I think he is here in TMC as TrendTrader007 ?
Nope. But thanks for thinking about me. It means a lot. It really does
I’m actually pretty subdued today because despite almost 7% rally in TSLA my portfolio went up only in the range of $3.5 to $4 in a single day which is nowhere close to an amazing and absolutely brilliant sober long term TSLA investor like you who I’m sure is doing much better
I’ll work on trying to hit $100+ in a single day
Maybe I’ll learn from your highly educated informed posts
Have a great 4th July, bud.