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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I don't believe the govt numbers on inflation or wages. First, because the govt keeps going back and revising numbers a few months later when less people are paying attention. Second, the govt numbers don't match what I'm seeing in my professional circles or my social circles. I manage teams in software development. No one is getting the wage growth I see claims of. Go post that elsewhere online and watch the responses. It isn't real for the majority. Inflation has also been worse than reported. House prices are rising here again. Food prices are still rising here as well. Etc.

I don't think Tesla will do a stock buyback anytime soon. I believe Elon still considers a hard recession a strong possibility and I think Tesla will hang onto cash. I also see Tesla pushing harder to sell vehicles than I've witnessed in the past. I've had several texts regarding trying to talk me into buying a Model S. I've also received more emails from Tesla in the past few months than in any past equivalent time.

I hope things get better and the economy improves. As it is, the working class are hurting.
The union on my current project secured 16% in just wage increases over the next four years plus increases across the board for all their perks, wage cuts were on the menu prior to the pandemic.
 
It is of course not just unions who are seeing big pay increases, but I know what I see in my industry: unions set the precedence, and then non-union companies play catch up until they're back at parity.


Union participation in Canada where you are is much higher than in the US though.

Nearly 30% of all workers in Canada are union... when almost a third of a fields workforce is getting something the rest have a lot of incentive to somewhat keep up.

In the US it's barely 10% and outside a few industries that are almost ALL union nobody really cares.
 
The union on my current project secured 16% in just wage increases over the next four years plus increases across the board for all their perks, wage cuts were on the menu prior to the pandemic.

This is way off topic...and it is indeed good that these folks shifted from the realm of wage cuts into a realm of decent pay increases. I'll also note that my personal views lean more and more toward a need for some sort of Universal Basic Income starting point, so that gives you a frame for my personal bias.

That being said: is that 16% total over 4 years? So an average of 3.8% per year? (plus the other perks you mentioned)

I think that's a pretty typical/average-ish annual pay increase in many industries. I know many see less than that. But, in a world of "normal" 3-ish percent inflation, that means a worker with an extra year of experience is only getting an extra 0.8% of real income. If wages didn't keep up with the last couple years of high inflation, then workers are starting from a deficit too...so their total average inflation-adjusted increase from ~2021-2027 would be even smaller.

With union negotiations required to eek out salaries that rise just a bit faster than typical inflation, it's no wonder employees jump to new companies every few years to negotiate pay bumps. The world would probably work a lot better if companies put more value on continuity and keeping the good/experienced employees they have, instead of "keeping costs low" but having to deal with waves of departures and new hires.
 
Looks like another busy day for new supercharging locations. At least 10 11 12 13! 14! more locations were opened across the United States. 8 to 12 15 16 stalls each

The last flurry was only 10 days ago on July 3rd with 10 locations.

I won’t bother listing the new locations; they can be found on the official Tesla again Charging Twitter account.

Superchargers are going to be everywhere if this pace continues. I imagine the rate will only increase over the next 3-5 years until they are as ubiquitous as gas stations. But instead of splitting the revenue between Shell, Exxon Mobil, etc all the dollars can flow to Tesla.

Exciting times ahead!

Edit: Each Twitter refresh seems to produce a new location. I’ll keep refreshing 😉
Just saw 8 chargers (still plastic-wrapped) that look a day or two away from opening in my medium sized NE Georgia college town (home of the 2x defending football champs). The location is right next to the new REI and this addition doubles the number of Tesla stalls and charging spots. Very exciting as this location is very close to me and we are soon to be (Cybertruck pending) a two-Tesla household and only have a one-stall garage with one charger.
 
This is way off topic...and it is indeed good that these folks shifted from the realm of wage cuts into a realm of decent pay increases. I'll also note that my personal views lean more and more toward a need for some sort of Universal Basic Income starting point, so that gives you a frame for my personal bias.

That being said: is that 16% total over 4 years? So an average of 3.8% per year? (plus the other perks you mentioned)

I think that's a pretty typical/average-ish annual pay increase in many industries. I know many see less than that. But, in a world of "normal" 3-ish percent inflation, that means a worker with an extra year of experience is only getting an extra 0.8% of real income. If wages didn't keep up with the last couple years of high inflation, then workers are starting from a deficit too...so their total average inflation-adjusted increase from ~2021-2027 would be even smaller.

With union negotiations required to eke out salaries that rise just a bit faster than typical inflation, it's no wonder employees jump to new companies every few years to negotiate pay bumps. The world would probably work a lot better if companies put more value on continuity and keeping the good/experienced employees they have, instead of "keeping costs low" but having to deal with waves of departures and new hires.
Whoa now Darth Powell says inflation needs to get back down to their long-term target of 2%, 3-ish percent is 50-ish percent higher than that!

Feels like it’s worth discussing if only because wage increases are part of what central banks are watching along with unemployment and jobless claims, since certain combinations of these things tend to support price increases and could be what leads to an inflationary spike back up if they take their foot off the brake.

The last hiking cycle before the pandemic was back in 2007-2008 where rates were raised to the same as today’s range 5.00-5.25 and then held for a year before the subprime mortgage crisis forced aggressive cuts, and the rate hikes were over a longer period of time probably helping it bite more during the 1-year pause.

I think if they even hinted at rate cuts coming any time in the near future, prices indeed would start heading back up. In particular there seems to be no doubt that lower rates would be very supportive of higher prices on new + used cars and real estate from current levels, demand would go bonkers after already dealing with higher rates for a bit and somewhat accepting them.
 
All of those people hoping Tesla gets all of the NEVI funding are going to be disappointed. Ohio announced winners for the first year funding and Tesla isn't one of them.


That makes at least two states where Tesla won't get any of the first year NEVI funding.
except Tesla has, at least, already, 20 SuperCharger sites in _Ohio_ with around 172 chargers
 
Another thing pointing in Tesla's favor for the 2nd half of 2023 when it comes to their earnings......the US dollar


Calling @The Accountant . I believe Zach stated on Tesla's most recent earnings call was that the way currencies effect Tesla is on a YoY basis, not QoQ, like some of us originally believed. Thus if you look at Q1 2023, even though the Dollar was down significantly from Q4, it was still much higher than it was in Q1 of 2022. Which is way Tesla stated that Q1 earnings were still being impacted negatively by currency headwinds. Now, in Q2, if you look at the YoY, the Dollar will be slightly down.

So it might not be much of a tailwind in Q2. But....look into Q3 and Q4. Q3 and Q4 earnings might be blowout earnings from analyst expectations simply from currency tailwinds....major currency tailwinds.
I have looked at the Q2 exchange rates and although there will be a negative impact on revenues (a bit less than in Q1), the impact on earnings should be small. That's because the Yuan and the Yen are weak to the US$ and Tesla has significant costs denominated in Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen.
The Yuan and Yen costs get translated to less US$ due to their weakness.
 
Looks like another busy day for new supercharging locations. At least 10 11 12 13! 14! more locations were opened across the United States. 8 to 12 15 16 stalls each

The last flurry was only 10 days ago on July 3rd with 10 locations.

I won’t bother listing the new locations; they can be found on the official Tesla again Charging Twitter account.

Superchargers are going to be everywhere if this pace continues. I imagine the rate will only increase over the next 3-5 years until they are as ubiquitous as gas stations. But instead of splitting the revenue between Shell, Exxon Mobil, etc all the dollars can flow to Tesla.

Exciting times ahead!

Edit: Each Twitter refresh seems to produce a new location. I’ll keep refreshing 😉
I think you are confusing Tesla announcing new locations on Twitter with that new location opening. They are only vaguely related, at least historically. All you're seeing is when some Tesla person decides to tweet about all the latest.

For example, the Central Ladprao, Thailand supercharger they tweeted about an hour or so ago was opened on July 2 according to supercharge.info. And the Jacksonville, FL one they tweeted about six hours ago actually opened on June 28 ( #3 ).
 
All of those people hoping Tesla gets all of the NEVI funding are going to be disappointed. Ohio announced winners for the first year funding and Tesla isn't one of them.


That makes at least two states where Tesla won't get any of the first year NEVI funding.
Meijer hosts several supercharger locations in MI. Maybe this will help them continue.
 
I think Tesla is calling China‘s authorities bluff - big time.

China has been dragging its feet particularly badly lately in approving/supporting Tesla shanghai expansion plans, in what looks like a blatant attempt to shore up locally owned EV manufacturers.

Now that is coming home to roost as Tesla appears to be ramping up negotiating efforts in many other countries around the world to set up new manufacturing plants. Todays leak out of India is the worst case scenario for China, as India is fighting to become a major exporter, replacing China for as many western owned brands as possible (who are attracted to India partly due to low labour costs, but also for the far less geo-political risk India carries). Apple is already growing its outsourced manufacturing & supply chain operations there, and the more large international firms join the effort the more valid the country becomes as an option.
 
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except Tesla has, at least, already, 20 SuperCharger sites in _Ohio_ with around 172 chargers

... and Elon has been pretty clear about his thoughts on any such funding being unnecessary.

Tesla will take such when it is available, but they don't need it. They're on a Mission.


Everybody else with aspirations to create a fraction of the charging points Tesla has/will build, may be better served by receiving it. Sounds like good judgement on the part of those who dole out the funds.
 
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Or Elon could just take some cash off the table once Starlink is profitable and goes public. (Boring!) That doesn't sound like Elon's style. I think he'd rather have both. I hope.

Cheers to the Longs!
I have a hard time believing Elon will ever go public with one of his companies again. I think Twitter is an indicator. He’d rather burn $40B of his own cash rather than lose absolute control of his companies.
 
Just saw 8 chargers (still plastic-wrapped) that look a day or two away from opening in my medium sized NE Georgia college town (home of the 2x defending football champs). The location is right next to the new REI and this addition doubles the number of Tesla stalls and charging spots. Very exciting as this location is very close to me and we are soon to be (Cybertruck pending) a two-Tesla household and only have a one-stall garage with one charger.
Well, you should report it to supercharge.info. I don't see anything known about construction in NE Georgia. Preferably with a photo and an exact location.

@Big Earl @Chuq
 
I have a hard time believing Elon will ever go public with one of his companies again. I think Twitter is an indicator. He’d rather burn $40B of his own cash rather than lose absolute control of his companies.
Not for a company he cares deeply about I agree (especially SpaceX) - but can totally see him IPOing Boring company, spinning off Starlink in an IPO, and re-listing twitter (if it ever becomes significantly profitable again).
 
Not for a company he cares deeply about I agree (especially SpaceX) - but can totally see him IPOing Boring company, spinning off Starlink in an IPO, and re-listing twitter (if it ever becomes significantly profitable again).
Boring company is likely to be the owner of the IP that builds the first Martian cities. I find it unlikely he’ll ipo that.
 
... and Elon has been pretty clear about his thoughts on any such funding being unnecessary.

Tesla will take such when it is available, but they don't need it. They're on a Mission.

Everybody else with aspirations to create a fraction of the charging points Tesla has/will build, may be better served by receiving it. Sounds like good judgement on the part of those who dole out the funds.

Now that all the other charge providers are switching to NACS, I'm not smart enough to know what benefits Tesla more:

  1. Tesla getting the NEVI funding to effectively subsidize the cost to build some supercharger stations...but have a few government strings attached. Or
  2. Tesla makes superchargers exactly how and where they want to, at their own cost. Other charging networks get the NEVI funding to build additional stations, taking some of the load off of superchargers and overall expanding the EV charging world.