Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ipcress]

Im sure BS Barra has already sent a text to Elon, since she had stated on CNBC that she texted him about NACS adoption

No, I'm pretty sure she sent a FAX.

 

[DarthPierce]

FSD transferability will be good for moving vehicles, but of course selling those new vehicles anyways with +$15k would be preferable

If that drives more demand, will Tesla offset by increasing prices/reducing discounts? There will be some interesting pulls in all directions from this

Not to be a hater, but I'm not sure that this fsd "transfer" will work out all that well anyway - they just low ball your trade in even more.
Right?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

4% down because elon rambles a bit is nuts. If I could trade in post-market here, I'd buy some more shares right now.

The stock isn’t down 4% because Elon rambled. It’s down because factories are being idled to do upgrades and Elon and team wouldn’t say that order rates are strong enough to insure more price cuts weren’t needed. Elons talk on Cybertruck pretty much confirms it’s not coming out in Q3

This earnings call gave bears all that they needed to mislead the actual facts for their narrative for Q3.

The reality is that with the one time FSD transfer for Q3, Tesla is set up for a strong Q3 where deliveries could drastically outpace production leading to some huge FCF numbers. Also, Energy was both great and underwhelming this quarter. The margin increase was great. The deployment stagnation was not great. However, it seemed to me that during the call, Drew made it a point to say that recognizing Megapack revenue would be lumpy and then proceeded to mention that a lot of big Megapack projects will be completed in this quarter. So he could have been dropping some tea leaves that Energy will have a big a Q3

Unfortunately, I think this earnings call insures that TSLA fails to break above the 2 year downtrend line and thus will be capped by it and drift lower all throughout Q3

 

[dmvevguy]

I agree! Will be moving my 5k 2017 FSD to a new Tesla in Q3 especially if cyber truck order system opens up.

Sorry, I missed the call. Are you saying they will let us move over our existing FSD to the new cybertruck? I also have a 17 Model S w/ FSD, so this will get me to def buy the new truck. I hate parting ways with my perfectly fine 100k model s, but honestly, warranty coming up next year and will def "seal the deal" for me to upgrade!

 

[Knightshade]

FSD transferability will be good for moving vehicles

Also for reducing the amount of refunds they'll need to give FSD buyers when they have to admit HW3 and older can't actually do >L2 since they hope as many people as possible in that situation will now trade up to HW4 cars.

 

[AndrewZ]

Not to be a hater, but I'm not sure that this fsd "transfer" will work out all that well anyway - they just low ball your trade in even more.
Right?

Yeah I’m trying to picture how it will work exactly and how the used vehicles traded in will be leveraged to produce more gains

 

[Hiline]

Is that correct thinking though?

I thought a large part of the used cars Tesla sells are cars they are getting back from leasing? Doesn't that mean they are paying the same for those cars as last quarter but they are getting less when they sell them because used car prices are falling.

Not sure accounting works for leased cars, but I think Tesla made a significant margin from selling trade-ins.

 

[MP3Mike]

Are you saying they will let us move over our existing FSD to the new cybertruck?

Not really. The transfer is only for orders placed in Q3 with a "reasonable" delivery timeline. (He originally said delivery in Q3.)

Obviously we need more details to be sure. (But most early Cybertruck order placers had the option to lock in the $7k price for FSD.)

 

[Causalien]

GJ tesla. Stable solid quarter. We are almost through. Maybe 2 qtrs. Hang in there.

 

[RED MDL3]

Not to be a hater, but I'm not sure that this fsd "transfer" will work out all that well anyway - they just low ball your trade in even more.
Right?

I used CAR MAX trading a 2018 model 3 $42K for A 2020 Y and got $6k more than Tesla trade-in. I’m tempted to upgrade to 2023 Performance Y and transfer FSD then trade 2020 Y to CAR MAX.

 

[mongo]

Vehicle you are transferring FSD from must have been purchased and in your Tesla account before today.
(My guess)

 

[Mike Smith]

The FSD talks must be with Ford. Mary Barra would only do a major collaboration with tier 1 automakers like Nikola or Lordstown

 

[space_s3x]

 

[Mengy]

Unfortunately, I think this earnings call insures that TSLA fails to break above the 2 year downtrend line and thus will be capped by it and drift lower all throughout Q3

Yeah, I agree with this assessment.


Buying opportunity?

 

[MP3Mike]

Vehicle you are transferring FSD from must have been purchased and in your Tesla account before today.
(My guess)

Likely. The question is will they require you to trade the donor vehicle into Tesla, or can you just move the FSD license? (Like they let people convert FUSC on a vehicle currently in your account into 6 years of free Supercharging on a new Model S or X.)

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

The latter. From the I.R. page on Tesla, if you choose "Q&A" you will go to the list managed by say.com.

The first five or ten questions have been via say.com for a long time. Surprisingly everyone answering them previously including both Elon and the others, have answered in a way that made it clear they had no idea what questions they would get. It´s like no one gave them the questions in advance and they didn't know to look themselves.

This time though most answers to those questions seemed well prepared and was pretty much read from written notes. Not made up as they were talking.

We saw a return to that way of answering on the live questions though.

 

[Singuy]

The stock isn’t down 4% because Elon rambled. It’s down because factories are being idled to do upgrades and Elon and team wouldn’t say that order rates are strong enough to insure more price cuts weren’t needed. Elons talk on Cybertruck pretty much confirms it’s not coming out in Q3

This earnings call gave bears all that they needed to mislead the actual facts for their narrative for Q3.

The reality is that with the one time FSD transfer for Q3, Tesla is set up for a strong Q3 where deliveries could drastically outpace production leading to some huge FCF numbers. Also, Energy was both great and underwhelming this quarter. The margin increase was great. The deployment stagnation was not great. However, it seemed to me that during the call, Drew made it a point to say that recognizing Megapack revenue would be lumpy and then proceeded to mention that a lot of big Megapack projects will be completed in this quarter. So he could have been dropping some tea leaves that Energy will have a big a Q3

Unfortunately, I think this earnings call insures that TSLA fails to break above the 2 year downtrend line and thus will be capped by it and drift lower all throughout Q3

First FSD licensed announcement will break through the 2 year downtrend after multiple days, not earnings.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Yeah, I agree with this assessment.


Buying opportunity?

Not so fast!!

 

[Carl Raymond]

They literally just said they made a 10% energy density improvement in their batteries.

Make 10 get one free? No, it’s better than that.
It’s make 10 get a magic zero mass cell for free.

 

[Singuy]

Didn't even know Nflx is down almost 9%. So it's not all Elon's rambling..lol.

Anyways, I am going to have some fine wine tonight given how this post aged.

Haha, we have the call for the stock sinking. Usually the call is negligible for post earnings price action, however Tesla always manage to move...lots of time to the downside.