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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Just took delivery of our R1S, can confirm there are many little quality of life differences that make Teslas continue to stand out for me from an overall UX/UI experience. Some can be fixed over time with software updates, but others are just fundamental to the Tesla ecosystem and design mentality. Just thought I would share a data-point I found for myself that reinforces my position.
Any examples you are willing to share?
 
If we lived in a rational world. Were there a rational species only Darwinian simplicity might suffice.
Human beings are not rational beings. Most of us might live to think we are, but that is untrue.
Markets reflect emotions, rational characteristics and superficial inferences. Even the very existence of Tesla, the object of our devotion, would never have happened with purely rational decisions.

An old, perhaps even true, Albert Einstein allegedly said :
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."

How can anyone imagine rational markets can exist?

Especially when discussing shares of a company that doesn't issue dividends, making the shares merely collectibles with no inherent value.
 
“Demolition of existing equipment and installation of new equipment.”
 
Tesla appears to have had little incidence.

Our initial research findings, based on global EV battery fires from 2010-2020, indicate a 0.0012% of a passenger electric vehicle battery catching fire.

The fire retardant foam in Tesla battery packs must do something useful, it would be great to see EV fire stats broken out by brand.
 
IMO - Summer, no COVID, we're not stuck at home on random internet chatrooms trying to make friends anymore.

My two nephews each got COVID a month ago. Earlier this year my BIL got COVID and is now deaf in one ear. The fuss over COVID is gone, but the disease isn't.

But I accept your point that people are traveling en masse rather than spending their time at home on the internet.
 
LK-99's synthesis is pretty easy- the problem is nobody, not since it was first claimed to have these properties in 2020 has anyone else been able to prove it does what they claim or replicate their results.

Now that it's in the news again some more teams are trying, and we should have their results within a few weeks to see if anything has magically changed in 3 years.
Odds of LK99 being true are going up fast now(from 23% to ~50% and bouncing around):

So I guess the important question is how does this affect TSLA if this is true? How could Tesla use room temperature ambient pressure superconductors? How will it affect the broad market?

I assume LK99-> Nuclear Fusion -> abundance of electricity is the main impact, but I would guess that's at least 5-10years in the future.
 
Odds of LK99 being true are going up fast now(from 23% to ~50% and bouncing around):

So I guess the important question is how does this affect TSLA if this is true? How could Tesla use room temperature ambient pressure superconductors? How will it affect the broad market?

I assume LK99-> Nuclear Fusion -> abundance of electricity is the main impact, but I would guess that's at least 5-10years in the future.
Assuming it's not too costly, perhaps an upgrade to replace water cooled DCFC charging cables with less complex and bulky super conducting ones? Might decrease the mass of HVDC wires / busses in EVs themselves, if it's price competitive with an equivalent regular wire/bus (accounting for mass reduction, might be good enough to be only slightly more expensive per unit)?

I wouldn't expect any game changing innovations in the EV space though, unlike the example of magnets for fusion reactors.
 
On the shortage of GPUs for training machine learning models:

When did Tesla start working on Dojo? Wikipedia says it was first mentioned in April 2019. That's 4 years ago already. It's like some people at Tesla are really good in foreseeing the future and that's why I keep being invested in this company.
 
So I guess the important question is how does this affect TSLA if this is true? How could Tesla use room temperature ambient pressure superconductors? How will it affect the broad market?

I assume LK99-> Nuclear Fusion -> abundance of electricity is the main impact, but I would guess that's at least 5-10years in the future.
Here's a twitter thread on the possible applications of this new tech, written by someone who has worked with superconductor for a decade:


Thread unroll for those who don't have twitter: Thread by @Andercot on Thread Reader App

Sounds like the biggest effect on TSLA may be on the energy storage front via Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES)
 
Here's a twitter thread on the possible applications of this new tech, written by someone who has worked with superconductor for a decade:


Thread unroll for those who don't have twitter: Thread by @Andercot on Thread Reader App

Sounds like the biggest effect on TSLA may be on the energy storage front via Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES)
Nice thread. Regarding the SMES, how would Tesla use these? From my understanding they have very low Wh/kg and Wh/$ but are extremely fast and can thus help to clean the noise from the current which is needed when making silicon wafers and other things. How would Tesla benefit from this? Maybe Dojo would get slightly higher yield rate for the same cost?! I guess Tesla's batteries does this in a sense, not as fast and well as SMES but compared to coal/nuclear etc a lot better.
 
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1922 | Detroit​


Henry Ford on the Road to Riches


Henry Ford


I quit my job on August 15, 1899, and went into the automobile business.

It might be thought something of a step, for I had no personal funds. What money was left over from living was all used in experimenting. But my wife agreed that the automobile could not be given up—that we had to make or break. There was no “demand” for automobiles—there never is for a new article. They were accepted in much the fashion as was more recently the airplane. At first the “horseless carriage” was considered merely a freak notion and many wise people explained with particularity why it could never be more than a toy. No man of money even thought of it as a commercial possibility. I cannot imagine why each new means of transportation meets with such opposition. There are even those today who shake their heads and talk about the luxury of the automobile and only grudgingly admit that perhaps the motor truck is of some use. But in the beginning there was hardly any one who sensed that the automobile could be a large factor in industry. The most optimistic hoped only for a development akin to that of the bicycle. When it was found that an automobile really could go and several makers started to put out cars, the immediate query was as to which would go fastest. It was a curious but natural development—that racing idea. I never thought anything of racing, but the public refused to consider the automobile in any light other than as a fast toy. Therefore later we had to race. The industry was held back by this initial racing slant, for the attention of the makers was diverted to making fast rather than good cars. It was a business for speculators.
 
Odds of LK99 being true are going up fast now(from 23% to ~50% and bouncing around):

So I guess the important question is how does this affect TSLA if this is true? How could Tesla use room temperature ambient pressure superconductors? How will it affect the broad market?

I assume LK99-> Nuclear Fusion -> abundance of electricity is the main impact, but I would guess that's at least 5-10years in the future.
You bet Tesla is gonna capitalize on it. I am personally pinging all of my Tesla employee friends on Facebook chat now about this lmao 🤣 they have the capital, engineering-driven culture to change corporate strategy, and manufacturing prowess to scale.

This has wide ranging applications for energy storage products to cars to Optimus. Very broad ranging.

IMO if this pans out then we’re going to get a glimpse of a real singularity timeline. It’s gonna get real, and I’d dump a ton of money in stocks because we’re going to be entering a golden age fueled by radical technological innovation that would make Cathie Woods blush. Would probably even overwhelm macro headwinds from a Taiwan invasion.