Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

Lee, "The Tesla Economist" mentioned that Elon has indicated he would sell some shares in 2024. Does anyone here know what he is referring to?

Here is the comment in the middle of his video:

 

[petit_bateau]

Six Chinese companies were among top 10 global energy storage system suppliers in 2023H1 | Shanghai Non ferrous Metals

According to SMM statistics, the global energy storage system shipments in 2023H1 reached 72.4 Gwh. China’s shipments were 47Gwh, accounting for 65%; overseas shipments were 25.4Gwh, accounting for 35%; global energy storage system shipments were still dominated by Chinese integrators. Tesla’s...

news.metal.com

Turning to the substance of the news item,

"According to SMM statistics, the global energy storage system shipments in 2023H1 reached 72.4 Gwh. China’s shipments were 47Gwh, accounting for 65%; overseas shipments were 25.4Gwh, accounting for 35%; global energy storage system shipments were still dominated by Chinese integrators. Tesla’s shipments in the first half of the year exceeded 7Gwh, ranking first in the world."

This is an area that is desperately short of good data in either the public domain or in proprietary reports. Over the years I have put together a table of what I think the shipments were, plus my own forecast, but I have always been concerned about the possibility of significant under-reporting of actual shipments for all sorts of reasons. The news item is most useful and shows how industry/media are taking the topic more seriously, and can usefully be compared with my previous historical & forecasts.

The most obvious thing is that they (SMM) are suggesting 2023-H1 shipments were 72 GWh, which implies it will likely be approx 150 GWh for the full year. In comparison my forecast was only 47 GWh, so I now tend to think I have been undercounting in the past as it is not credible that volumes leap from 30 GWh to 150 GWh in one year. Also the SMM data includes 7 GWh attributed to Tesla which corresponds well with Tesla's Q1+Q2 public reports of 3.9 + 3.6 = 7.5 GWh and in turn suggests that the SMM data is reasonably solid. Looking at the list of companies and the corresponding volumes also suggests to me that the data is reasonably reliable.

The language (Chinglish) is slightly ambiguous but looking at the company list and the volumes I am fairly sure that there is no doublecounting of vehicle mobility product going on. These volumes appear to be purely stationary storage, for a combination of consumer-scale and utility-scale usage. Confusingly this also gets termed domestic storage so one needs to be careful about terminology.

The implication is that stationary market is aready taking approx one quarter of the volume versus the vehicle market, i.e. FY 2023 will be approx 150 GWh vs 626 GWh, approx. This is great news in terms of overall stationary storage adoption/scaling/deployment and further suggests to me that we are significantly underestimating the speed of the transition. I did not think that the (historical data + my projections) stationary market would reach that relative fraction until approx 2030.

Again this is the previous forecast I had, which I now think I will have to very substantially revise.

Does anyone have access to the SMM historical data to compare with my own scrapings of the various datapoints I have amassed out there, which now seem to be confirmed as a significant under-count ?

Oh, and by the way, this is another new-world industry where Chinese dominance is fully-locked in. It also happens to be one that is of vital strategic importance for the Chinese in their internal use as well as for Chinese exporting.

(I'll repost this on the main board as well)

(once again thanks @hobbes for snagging the original news item)

 

[JoRoMo]

Lee, "The Tesla Economist" mentioned that Elon has indicated he would sell some shares in 2024. Does anyone here know what he is referring to?

Here is the comment in the middle of his video:

Dec-23 2022: «…as the Tesla and Twitter CEO took to Spaces last night, Twitter Spaces, to say that he will not sell any more Tesla stock for another two years. He said, oh, 18 months, 24 months…»

18 makes it mid-24, but it wouldn’t mean he will sell then - it’s rather a promise not to sell before:

Elon Musk says on Twitter spaces he will not sell Tesla stock for 2 years

Yahoo Finance Live anchors discuss Elon Musk’s Twitter Spaces conversation where the CEO stated he will no longer sell Tesla stock.

news.yahoo.com

 

[mongo]

Lee, "The Tesla Economist" mentioned that Elon has indicated he would sell some shares in 2024. Does anyone here know what he is referring to?

Here is the comment in the middle of his video:

Elon said he 'would not' sell shares until at least 2024, not that he definitely would on a Spaces talk.
No More Tesla Stock Sales Until 2024, and Other Tidbits From Musk

 

[CreativeName]

Hmmm, these Highland test cars have some of the roof covered (see tape on the sides going up) unlike the others we have seen before...
Does anyone else think what I think?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693820595572822097

Ejection seat?

 

[Mengy]

Lee, "The Tesla Economist" mentioned that Elon has indicated he would sell some shares in 2024. Does anyone here know what he is referring to?

Here is the comment in the middle of his video:

Elon stated he would not sell any more shares until late 2024 at the soonest, but that's only a cutoff point, he might not sell ANY shares in 2024 at all.

Lee has a habit of being overly pessimistic and twisting potentials into "certain" worst case scenarios. It's one reason why I don't follow him anymore, too many falsehoods coming out of his "rear end" just to be negative.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

FTFY

Ah yes, because it's on YouTube and appears to show negative/draconian actions against Tesla in China, THEN it must be false . . . got it.

I guess if it was on a VHS tape or a DVD it would be truthful?

Look, I realize that this forum has become home to Tesla Group Think, but we should all be well aware of the massive macro risks posed by the CCP and the fact that China is effectively being run by a dictator with aspirations to pull a Putin on Taiwan--because dictators don't think very rationally at times.

With so much production concentration in China, especially for what is likely a dozen export markets, Tesla REALLY needs to hasten India and Mexico expansion.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

When Joe T mentioned being told the purpose of that area the first thing to cross my mind was how convenient a Boring tunnel would be between the factory and the "end of line" facility.

Edit: let's make that a pair of tunnels as the drivers need a return shuttle route that doesn't impede the outbound flow

Who said Tesla would have to have drivers to move those from Point A to Point B . . . especially in a factory/secure environment?

 

[Artful Dodger]

or in the worst case, to hydrogen.

This part checks out.

Fire engulfs Golden Empire Transit hydrogen bus and fueling station (July 19, 2023)

 

[Buckminster]

Mixed views:

 

[TSLA Pilot]

So let me set the record straight for you. I post all by myself and I post what I think. You’re not new here and certainly have the ability to look at my posting history. There’s a clear, individual pattern.

I’ve been very clear in previous posts about the level of truth and fact coming from the Internet, media, analysts, articles etc., etc.,

Now, rather than try and change the conversation just provide some concrete evidence that what you posted was entirely factual. Here’s a hint for you: someone already tried to do that for you, however, the truth they uncovered was a bit different than you presented.

Finally, surely you jest that I have or might have a Tesla investment problem. Once again, a look at my posting history would clear that assumption right up for you.

Adding: the only TSLA or Tesla risk left worth being concerned about is what WallStreet types and their country club buddies decide to do.

Your position is that the video's content was falsified, with no basis for that position--other than you just don't like the content.

Do please advise where you have found that channel to have falsified content.

We'll be waiting . . . .

Thank you.

p.s. While we are all in on TSLA, the reality is that the China Risk for TSLA is HUGE and it would be folly to not acknowledge this.

 

[Krugerrand]

I was convinced of that too, but recently I haven’t been convinced of that anymore. The main reason is the attitude of a certain part of the population. These people a convinced that EV’s are just a phase, and that everything will revert back to ICE, or in the worst case, to hydrogen. These people will be willing to pay way too high second-hand prices for out-of-lease cars, convinced that it is The Right Thing to do.

Where do I find these people? Mostly on Facebook comments. You have to be pretty delusional to start repeating 10 year old FUD in the comment section of ads for EV chargers, but that’s pretty much the only kind of comment I see in ads for EV and EV-related stuff on FB. Pro-EV commenters stopped commenting or left FB, making the comment sections an echo chamber for ICE-addicts.

This is the part of the population that will only buy EV’s when they are forced to, most likely because of range anxiety because the density of gas stations will get too low. In Belgium I think this will be around 2030: by then, almost no ICE cars will get out-of-lease (because the new car market is mainly the company car market that has been forced to EV with tax rules) and the volume of gas sold will have plummeted (because most of the consumption also comes from company cars).

Bot or paid comments?

 

[Krugerrand]

Hmmm, these Highland test cars have some of the roof covered (see tape on the sides going up) unlike the others we have seen before...
Does anyone else think what I think?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693820595572822097

Hatchbacks!

 

[2daMoon]

Ah yes, because it's on YouTube and appears to show negative/draconian actions against Tesla in China, THEN it must be false . . . got it.

Ah, no, it is because you are unable to substantiate the data.

It makes no difference whether the data is positive or negative, or whether it is from China or Chicago, it is merely the fact that the Internet has taught how corroboration should be a factor before swallowing some item hook, line and sinker, then, widely regurgitating it simply because it supports a personal narrative.

 

[heltok]

Elon: I will not sell before 2024
Normies: Elon has said he will sell in 2024

Elon: Hydrogen cars are dumb
Normies: Tesla will never do hydrogen storage

Elon: The stock price is too high, but Tesla will be worth more than Apple and Aramco combined
Normies: Elon says stock is overvalued

Etc etc.

 

[2daMoon]

Who said Tesla would have to have drivers to move those from Point A to Point B . . . especially in a factory/secure environment?

Have you not watched any of the GigaTexas drone videos showing cars coming out of the factory, being driven (by drivers) to the current logistic lots, then, the drivers being brought back to the vehicle exit to pick up the next batch of cars?

How do you think the cars get from the factory to the parking lot where they load them on trucks for shipment?

I don't think autonomy is there just yet, but it could be soon. Then, no drivers may become the norm. Still, a tunnel or two would likely halve the distance between the factory and the new Logistics lot being built across the highway and prevent the new cars mixing with other traffic and related hazards.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ah yes, because it's on YouTube and appears to show negative/draconian actions against Tesla in China, THEN it must be false . . . got it.

No it mustn’t be false but neither is it automatically true. Don’t be obtuse.

I guess if it was on a VHS tape or a DVD it would be truthful?

Look, I realize that this forum has become home to Tesla Group Think, but we should all be well aware of the massive macro risks posed by the CCP and the fact that China is effectively being run by a dictator with aspirations to pull a Putin on Taiwan--because dictators don't think very rationally at times.

Do you think you’re the first person to discuss China risks here!? Please. We’ve heard it for YEARS. You are aware that Tesla has factories in other countries, right? And that they continue to expand factory operations into more countries and that that is termed ‘derisking’ (and improving efficiencies and lowering costs and boosting economics in surrounding areas and increasing reliance on Tesla, and, and).

With so much production concentration in China, especially for what is likely a dozen export markets, Tesla REALLY needs to hasten India and Mexico expansion.

Going as fast as they can, buddy. Relax, you’ll give yourself acid reflux.

 

[Snerruc]

Dec-23 2022: «…as the Tesla and Twitter CEO took to Spaces last night, Twitter Spaces, to say that he will not sell any more Tesla stock for another two years. He said, oh, 18 months, 24 months…»

18 makes it mid-24, but it wouldn’t mean he will sell then - it’s rather a promise not to sell before:

Elon Musk says on Twitter spaces he will not sell Tesla stock for 2 years

Yahoo Finance Live anchors discuss Elon Musk’s Twitter Spaces conversation where the CEO stated he will no longer sell Tesla stock.

news.yahoo.com

What we tend to forget is that Elon doesn’t have any regular income. In the past he has borrowed against his stock for expenses, and I suspect X plus the accumulation of debt have convinced him he has to stop that. Debt gives people power over you. It is entirely reasonable to expect him to start a regular selling program for future income needs. It’s always been my assumption.

 

[SO16]

It seems most here have gotten the wrong take of why I posted the serpentza video.

It wasn’t to show Tesla’s weakness. In fact, they have already resolved it in some cases by keeping the data in China.

It was to show that people in the rest of the world better think twice before buying a Chinese EV because there are no safeguards in preventing their spying with their vehicles. For the same reason that TikTok has been banned in several cases, so too may Chinese EVs. Hence, probable increase of Tesla sales.

 

[elasalle]

It's quiet in here .... (not normal I would say )

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693901314592268466