Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

If you haven't seen the charts check out Global Auto Market Share by OEM and you can turn off or on the car companies you care about.

The time period/context is Global Market Share of all vehicle types (gas, diesel, electric, so long as you sell it, it counts) for all of 2020, 2021, 2022, and the YTD numbers for 2023.

Winners

• BYD 5.57x (3.9 from 0.7)
• Tesla 3.25x (2.6 from 0.8)

Slightly positive

• Suzuki 1.54x (4.3 from 2.8)
• Kia 1.18x (4 from 3.4)
• Hyundai 1.06x (5.4 from 5.1)
• Toyota 1.03x (10.7 from 10.4)

Losers

• Stellantis 0.93x (7.8 from 8.4)
• Mercedes 0.9x (2.7 from 3)
• Renault 0.89x (3.2 from 3.6)
• VW 0.87x (11.9 from 13.7)
• Ford 0.84x (4.6 from 5.5)
• GM 0.80x (6 from 7.5)
• Nissan 0.80x (4.1 from 5.1)
• Honda 0.77x (5.1 from 6.6)

for example this is what it looks like if you turn off everything but VW, TSLA, and Toyota.

 

[Captkerosene]

I wonder if the 50% new parts indicates if the Hiland has a front and rear casting?

They did say "stiffer!"

 

[CHGolferJim]

That seems to have worked here. When I suggest to keep our almost out-of-warranty S a couple of years longer, my wife starts talking about potential repair costs.

Nah (I hope)……..

 

[wipster]

So pardon me if this has already been discussed, but the Aussie ordering page for the refreshed Model 3 shows pricing for EAP at $5,100 AUD and FSD at $10,100 AUD... what up with that? Can any of our friends down under comment? I mean that equates to a little over $6,500 USD for FSD. Is something wrong with this picture?

 

[SPadival]

So pardon me if this has already been discussed, but the Aussie ordering page for the refreshed Model 3 shows pricing for EAP at $5,100 AUD and FSD at $10,100 AUD... what up with that? Can any of our friends down under comment? I mean that equates to a little over $6,500 USD for FSD. Is something wrong with this picture?

They haven’t increased the price here because we don’t get FSD beta. We get the stack that’s 3 years old and tries to kill me every time it takes an exit (off ramp) on EAP. FSD here is just traffic lights control + EAP. Elon said we’ll get a week’s notice before any price rise. So waiting for FSD Beta to be released here before I buy FSD.

 

[MC3OZ]

They haven’t increased the price here because we don’t get FSD beta. We get the stack that’s 3 years old and tries to kill me every time I take an exit (off ramp) on EAP. FSD here is just traffic lights control + EAP. Elon said we’ll get a week’s notice before any price rise. So waiting for FSD Beta to be released here before I buy FSD.

I have paid for FSD, but I don't try to use it, I can tell just driving around how it is likely to work.

Trying to time the purchase for the wife's car to beat any price increase, I hope we get notice of a price increase,

IMO this is what Tesla is now trying to do. Trying to get V12 working well enough to release to all countries, then use the threat of a price increase as a demand lever.

 

[Optimeer]

The front bumper camera was supposedly removed just hours prior to the release of the refreshed model 3 on september 1st. The additional camera was discernible on pictures on Teslas webpage but is now removed on these pictures. I didn‘t see the bumper camera mentioned during the youtube review videos, so it was removed on these cars too.
Surprisingly for me, there was no update to the FSD Computer including the cameras with the Highland update.

Is the progress with FSD alpha V12 so good, that the bumper camera is viewed as not needed anymore even for the parking functions? Wow.

 

[STARR X]

The true covered CT frunk...

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/frunk-money-shot-%F0%9F%92%B5-production-finish-with-liner-insert.9168/

View attachment 970227

It’s a love seat!

 

[phoggy123]

The Model S+X discounts will be welcomed by many but I can't help but think this is a significant indicator of a serious high end demand issue. Not 30 days ago Tesla announced the ability to move FSD from old vehicle to new. This should have been enough to keep the S+X lines busy...I would hope. But here we are 30 days out from quarter end and they do a massive price reduction.

My wife and I seriously considered moving up from the Y to the X and at the time an inventory X with 6 seats was like 96K. Today its 86K and I am still not sure its worth if for me and my family. The Y is just too good and the right price. I do wonder if Rivian is chipping away at the X given the R1S is in a similar class and pricepoint, more rugged, and bigger.

I think 3+Y demand is steady, but dropping 80k+ on a new car right now its tough and they have removed the trade up ability for a ton of existing customers based on price reductions/underwater loans. I really dont care about car dealers, but if I were in that business I might shun ever taking in a trade, buying one at auction. I said this a few weeks ago, but why not do significant lease incentives first...

Finally I believe Elon told the truth in the last two earrings calls....They are ready and willing to drop prices and be a break even business in the name of getting more and more FSD capable cars on the road. As an investor the street gives close to zero value to FSD at the moment, which means up until V12+ shows real progress beyond amazing feature.... to can't live without, I have to believe the street is going to punish TSLA. I own FSD on the Y, and marvel that I as a consumer have access to the software at any time...but also find it too stressful to use regularly.

 

[Singuy]

The Model S+X discounts will be welcomed by many but I can't help but think this is a significant indicator of a serious high end demand issue. Not 30 days ago Tesla announced the ability to move FSD from old vehicle to new. This should have been enough to keep the S+X lines busy...I would hope. But here we are 30 days out from quarter end and they do a massive price reduction.

My wife and I seriously considered moving up from the Y to the X and at the time an inventory X with 6 seats was like 96K. Today its 86K and I am still not sure its worth if for me and my family. The Y is just too good and the right price. I do wonder if Rivian is chipping away at the X given the R1S is in a similar class and pricepoint, more rugged, and bigger.

I think 3+Y demand is steady, but dropping 80k+ on a new car right now its tough and they have removed the trade up ability for a ton of existing customers based on price reductions/underwater loans. I really dont care about car dealers, but if I were in that business I might shun ever taking in a trade, buying one at auction. I said this a few weeks ago, but why not do significant lease incentives first...

Finally I believe Elon told the truth in the last two earrings calls....They are ready and willing to drop prices and be a break even business in the name of getting more and more FSD capable cars on the road. As an investor the street gives close to zero value to FSD at the moment, which means up until V12+ shows real progress beyond amazing feature.... to can't live without, I have to believe the street is going to punish TSLA. I own FSD on the Y, and marvel that I as a consumer have access to the software at any time...but also find it too stressful to use regularly.

Imagine if Mercedes was just selling S600 AMG and GLS AMGs. That is what Tesla was doing at 6 figs with performance that matched. Mercedes sell a few hundred GLS AMG and S600 AMGs a year in the US
Tesla moved like 60k. Most people buys GLS S450..which cost 72k. Tesla still manage to outsell Mercedes using AMG equivalent priced cars vs their low end trim.

Tesla is wildly out performing in the US. They have some work to do in China but I feel it's due to the price..most Chinese buys the lowest trim of the top of the line cars.

 

[phoggy123]

Imagine if Mercedes was just selling S600 AMG and GLS AMGs. That is what Tesla was doing at 6 figs with performance that matched. Mercedes sell a few hundred GLS AMG and S600 AMGs a year in the US
Tesla moved like 60k. Most people buys GLS S450..which cost 72k. Tesla still manage to outsell Mercedes using AMG equivalent priced cars vs their low end trim.

Tesla is wildly out performing in the US. They have some work to do in China but I feel it's due to the price..most Chinese buys the lowest trim of the top of the line cars.

I get what you mean with the comparison, but I dont see the X+S in the same league interior wise as the German top end ICE cars. The S is a fantastic sedan, I'd love one if I drove more day to day...but The X isn't differentiated enough from the Y to justify the cost. Its only marginally bigger...

Finally the X would be a better value IMO if they gave it a 400M range. 348 on the X to 330 on the Y isn't enough. We do long roadtrips like many Americans and if I could get 450 miles (300 in winter or when doing 80mph summer) that would make me jump. Also no stalks was annoying, some like it, I found it annoying, Maybe I would get used to it.

 

[Singuy]

I get what you mean with the comparison, but I dont see the X+S in the same league interior wise as the German top end ICE cars. The S is a fantastic sedan, I'd love one if I drove more day to day...but The X isn't differentiated enough from the Y to justify the cost. Its only marginally bigger...

Finally the X would be a better value IMO if they gave it a 400M range. 348 on the X to 330 on the Y isn't enough. We do long roadtrips like many Americans and if I could get 450 miles (300 in winter or when doing 80mph summer) that would make me jump. Also no stalks was annoying, some like it, I found it annoying, Maybe I would get used to it.

And yet it outperforms every luxury sedan and SUV sold by all major manufacturers at the same given price by like 10x.

Now it could just be there's no other alternative. You must spend 6 fig if you want a X while the s450 is a cheaper trim if you want the GLS. But still, people would rather pay the premium for the stalkless, "not much better than a Y", "not enough range" of a "demand wall" vehicle....

 

[phoggy123]

And yet it outperforms every luxury sedan and SUV sold by all major manufacturers at the same given price by like 10x.

Now it could just be there's no other alternative. You must spend 6 fig if you want a X while the s450 is a cheaper trim if you want the GLS. But still, people would rather pay the premium for the stalkless, "not much better than a Y", "not enough range" of a "demand wall" vehicle....

Look I'm just giving my perception as a buyer. Tesla competes with itself at this point, they are dropping price for a reason and I doubt it's that their costs for the S+X have dropped. To your point they are not limiting supply in order to keep values up, but when you dont have dealers to sit on product there is nowhere to hide.

I think the question I'm asking and most people are is what is the motivation for price reductions and I think its decreasing demand along with the willingness to take less margin in the larger goal of self driving....

You can outperform the industry while still having declining margins. I'm sure the German auto company margins are compressing too, it just harder to spot with dealers.

 

[Singuy]

Look I'm just giving my perception as a buyer. Tesla competes with itself at this point, they are dropping price for a reason and I doubt it's that their costs for the S+X have dropped. To your point they are not limiting supply in order to keep values up, but when you dont have dealers to sit on product there is nowhere to hide.

I think the question I'm asking and most people are is what is the motivation for price reductions and I think its decreasing demand along with the willingness to take less margin in the larger goal of self driving....

You can outperform the industry while still having declining margins. I'm sure the German auto company margins are compressing too, it just harder to spot with dealers.

It's not decreasing demand, but running out of people if they want to grow S/X deliveries. In fact there isn't a company out there that move 70k of only 6 fig cars a year. I don't know why people keep expecting Tesla to grow S/X sales at those prices. Most companies move a few thousand 6 fig cars from their line up. They are blessed if they sold 10k a year. Tesla is 7x these numbers but people are like "not good enough ".

 

[InTheMiddle]

I get what you mean with the comparison, but I dont see the X+S in the same league interior wise as the German top end ICE cars. The S is a fantastic sedan, I'd love one if I drove more day to day...but The X isn't differentiated enough from the Y to justify the cost. Its only marginally bigger...

X+S are at a cross with German top-end ICE vehicles - one could make a comparison between a Bvulgari Finissimo and an Apple Watch Ultra and argue that the Ultra isn't in the same league luxury-wise. However, the reality is that the product category is really different (traditional luxury vs modern electronics capabilities) in both cases, and there will be buyers of each. One need not be superior to the prior product in all areas, if the areas the new product is superior in are so overwhelmingly compelling...especially if the trend is away from consumers caring about the other areas where the prior product might (subjectively) shine more.

As for the X vs the Y ... I have both in my garage, and use each multiple times each week. They are actually very differentiated, with the X being my favorite for most things, but the Y holding it's own quite well for its role. Experience both for an extended time to understand where each one shines.

Finally the X would be a better value IMO if they gave it a 400M range. 348 on the X to 330 on the Y isn't enough. We do long roadtrips like many Americans and if I could get 450 miles (300 in winter or when doing 80mph summer) that would make me jump. Also no stalks was annoying, some like it, I found it annoying, Maybe I would get used to it.

Setting aside 'value', yes, higher range on the X would always be welcomed and appreciated, especially for the many long road trips taken at freeway speeds. Fortunately a round wheel was added as an option, so that both round-wheelers (like me) and yoke-wheelers (like others) can each have their preferred choice. Might be interesting to contemplate if stalks could be added back in as an option, and if so what the order rate % for each option would be.

One minor takeaway on the price drop ... subjectively, humans focus on round numbers, such as $100k. As a result, even though $99k and $101k final prices (reasonably optioned and after FSD / registration / taxes / etc) are not really all that different, I do suspect that when someone pays > $100k their expectations definitely jump up (especially in areas such as what options should be available and overall human service interactions) far above their expectations when that same person pays $99k. Hence, there is another benefit to having more buyers able to configure the vehicle under $100k, and other buyers to choose to option it above $100k. Perhaps it shouldn't necessarily be that way, but human psychology is a fickle thing. Then again, it could just be me.

 

[alhounos]

Some "light" entertainment for the long weekend

 

[Buckminster]

I think some of these things need to be repeated:

• Elon rules Tesla
• Elon is ~100% focussed on very long term extraordinary goals
• Elon is ~80% confident Tesla will thrive eventually
• Biggest risk is staff growing rich and leaving (or switching off) before his goals are complete
• It is in his interest to suppress stock price
• Low prices keeps stock price low, focusses staff on excellence
• Low prices kills competition (Elon has mixed feelings on this)
• The longer the base, the bigger the breakout (following Robotaxis, Elon's main goal for Tesla ahead of bots)

These all seem to fit together and is too logical to be a coincidence.

I would prefer to eat a little earlier and therefore endorse buyback and advertising but who am I to criticise - the man has a plan.

 

[bigsmooth125]

Drop the yoke and go with the steering wheel--it's far safer and practical for anywhere cars need to turn, especially in roundabouts or when parallel parking . . . .

The "boy racer" yoke is an Elon fad that will soon fade in desire.

Someone ban this poster. He doesn't belong in our cult! Am I doing this right?

 

[bigsmooth125]

I think some of these things need to be repeated:

• Elon rules Tesla
• Elon is ~100% focussed on very long term extraordinary goals
• Elon is ~80% confident Tesla will thrive eventually
• Biggest risk is staff growing rich and leaving (or switching off) before his goals are complete
• It is in his interest to suppress stock price
• Low prices keeps stock price low, focusses staff on excellence
• Low prices kills competition (Elon has mixed feelings on this)
• The longer the base, the bigger the breakout (following Robotaxis, Elon's main goal for Tesla ahead of bots)

These all seem to fit together and is too logical to be a coincidence.

I would prefer to eat a little earlier and therefore endorse buyback and advertising but who am I to criticise - the man has a plan.

You're repeating only the things you want to hear. You've left out the possibility that a lower stock price over a sufficient amount of time can cause staff to leave for job opportunities they deem to be better financially.

 

[insaneoctane]

FSD out of beta? How?

https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1698216951074730347