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Update on my Model S purchase (and bad bug on Tesla’s part?)

Because I was lucky enough to get my trade-in valuation the day before the price drop and am finalizing my sale after, i’m worrying about making sure this transaction goes through. So I immediately on September 1st went through the app and filled out all the details. When I got to the payment part I made sure first that I had enough money in my primary checking account to pay fully in cash (no way I’m financing at this interest rate!). I was curious what the payment choices would be (bring a certified check, wire the money, personal check in advance, enter account numbers…). So therefore I was shocked after I hit the button for payment, it just stated $70,800 payment complete and zero owed.

Now I have no idea what happened. I can’t believe they charged it to the credit card, and now I’m in a panic that the payment will fail and the deal will fall through and I won’t get the FSD xfer because I can’t get another Model S in time, or my resale value will be lower…

I got an overdraft notice this morning from my secondary checking account, so mystery solved. My payment methods for the Tesla App (which I assumed were just for charging and merchandise) were first Apple Pay and secondly that secondary checking account.

It’s just astonishing to me that the App gave me no choice for the payment method on a $70k+ car purchase (and also that the bank allowed such a huge overdraft:)
Maybe it's our CU but we found the mechanism for paying cash to be challenging and Tesla makes it difficult to give them money. Far easier to just take the financing then pay it off when the bill comes. Similar experience back in the days of buying gas cars, almost like cash buyers are suspect.
 
I don't think we will ever know. Tesla has always kept its take rate secret.

The FSD price drop is weird though. The only explanation I can think of is that they want to increase the take rate because they need the data from more drivers using FSD on Hardware 4. This would also explain why Tesla suddenly allowed FSD transfers.

But none of the motivation is clear because Tesla ain't talkin'.

That's one theory--it could also be that Zach, on his way out--or the new CFO, on his way in--or both--were able to convince Elon to try selling FSD at a lower price as an experiment to see how it would affect revenue/margins.
 
Update on my Model S purchase (and bad bug on Tesla’s part?)

Because I was lucky enough to get my trade-in valuation the day before the price drop and am finalizing my sale after, i’m worrying about making sure this transaction goes through. So I immediately on September 1st went through the app and filled out all the details. When I got to the payment part I made sure first that I had enough money in my primary checking account to pay fully in cash (no way I’m financing at this interest rate!). I was curious what the payment choices would be (bring a certified check, wire the money, personal check in advance, enter account numbers…). So therefore I was shocked after I hit the button for payment, it just stated $70,800 payment complete and zero owed.

Now I have no idea what happened. I can’t believe they charged it to the credit card, and now I’m in a panic that the payment will fail and the deal will fall through and I won’t get the FSD xfer because I can’t get another Model S in time, or my resale value will be lower…

I got an overdraft notice this morning from my secondary checking account, so mystery solved. My payment methods for the Tesla App (which I assumed were just for charging and merchandise) were first Apple Pay and secondly that secondary checking account.

It’s just astonishing to me that the App gave me no choice for the payment method on a $70k+ car purchase (and also that the bank allowed such a huge overdraft:)
As it happens, I managed to do this *twice* this calendar year, on separate vehicles. :(

Investor TLDR: A simple confirmation screen would go a long way towards making this function like virtually all other online "Pay" buttons and avoid such issues, but Tesla appears to build their systems with the mindset of "Let's make this super easy assuming everyone does the 'typical' thing (small downpayment with loan) and not bother implementing management tools for the team to use in the less-typical cases."

Maybe it's our CU but we found the mechanism for paying cash to be challenging and Tesla makes it difficult to give them money. Far easier to just take the financing then pay it off when the bill comes. Similar experience back in the days of buying gas cars, almost like cash buyers are suspect.
It's not just your credit union, it's that these are a small enough percentage of Tesla's sales that Tesla does not invest in the experience (or in management tools for this experience).

Issue #1 is that they no longer allow manually entering in checking account information, at least not in the US....everything must be entered via providing one's bank login credentials to PLAID. For security reasons, I generally refuse to do any such thing...but for Tesla, on a prior purchase, I had relented and allowed it to access a minor account at a bank I had previously used primarily but lately do little business with, with a changed password just for it, etc. The first time I made this error I was in the Tesla delivery center, showing the delivery center person that it did not allow entering in a routing / account number manually, and accidentally tapped "Pay".

Issue #2 is that unfortunately, the delivery center person checked and they CANNOT cancel it on the back-end, and it was now showing 'Paid in full' for him. Everything got gummed up from there, as he stated he could not take any other payment to finish processing delivery until the PLAID payment officially failed. It took days before the delivery center reached back out and gave me wire transfer information to complete the transaction.

Issue #3 is that when sending in a wire transfer, Tesla's website notes to include the RN# with the wire transfer. With Fidelity, that actually cannot be done - there isn't an editable memo field. Tesla was, however, able to match it up quickly from the wire transfer confirmation number.

Issue #4 is that when pivoting from Car A to Car B in the order-and-delivery process, I was initially told that the original wire transfer funds could not be transferred from A to B, so to simply wire the funds for B while cancelling A would be processed over the next few days. With a cap on the amount of a single wire transfer via Fidelity's website, this would have to be broken into two.

Issue #5 is that while switching between the Tesla app (to check the amount) and Fidelity's wire transfer screen, I accidentally hit "Pay" on Car B. <sigh> This time, the bank actually reached out to me to say they were simply covering it as a courtesy (and, I assume, to encourage me to return to using them more extensively), but I assured them there was no need, so they canceled the temporary approval they'd given to PLAID. However, see Issue #1 for how long things take...

Issue #6 is that after sending the first wire transfer for B, even before waiting for #5 to be resolved, the app refresh didn't show the payment, and when provided the wire transfer confirmation #, the Tesla rep identified that it had been errantly credited towards A, even though A had already been paid for in full. At this point, he was able to get someone on the phone who was able to move the new wire transfer to B *and* was going to work on moving the original wire transfer over to B as well, and would credit back the leftover once the two wire transfers were both applied to B (as opposed to me sending a third wire transfer for the remainder of B, and getting a refund of the full amount of the original wire transfer for A).
Issue #7 is that some weeks later Tesla's collections team reached out to me, because I was happily driving around in my new X but their screen showed it not paid for. After walking her thru the process and her seeing that, yes, in fact I had far OVERPAID, the woman was incredibly polite and apologetic for having reached out, and promised to resolve it and get me my refund ASAP. I followed up with her repeatedly over the next few weeks, and the timeline for receiving the refund has continued to stretch out. Most recently she stated that it would be a paper check but could take up to 8 weeks before that gets printed (we are almost at that point). I did enquire if she could simply have those funds credited towards the solar panels I am guiding my sister thru purchasing, but she stated that no, she could not transfer the excess funds from automotive to energy, although if I were to buy yet another vehicle she could get that transfer done. Having typed all this up, I suppose I should reach back out to her for another status update...
 
I want to give a kudos to Tesla for being aware of the competition. All automakers, and I mean ALL ( including Tesla) buy the competition cars, take them apart and benchmark them. The common praise from the few Highland reviews are that the NVH was improved. Tells me Tesla engineers have been driving and dissecting the competition's cars and responded with an improved 3 where it was lacking, and lowering costs in the process. That shows mature thinking and bodes well for future products as the competition increases soon.
 
If UAW goes on strike, isn't the most likely outcome simply that legacies margins are further reduced due to higher wages and benefits?
That is the most likely outcome whether they go on strike or not. We just don't know how much, and how long production is stopped before they get there. This is the last gasp of unions in the US for the foreseeable future. Friendly POTUS, Dem congress
OT my neighbor was razzing me about a news report that a couple of Teslas burned after being submerged in salt floodwaters around the Tampa area. Super annoying.
Please excuse the interruption, I just needed to vent.
Give him this link. Happens to gas cars too.

 
I want to give a kudos to Tesla for being aware of the competition. All automakers, and I mean ALL ( including Tesla) buy the competition cars, take them apart and benchmark them. The common praise from the few Highland reviews are that the NVH was improved. Tells me Tesla engineers have been driving and dissecting the competition's cars and responded with an improved 3 where it was lacking, and lowering costs in the process. That shows mature thinking and bodes well for future products as the competition increases soon.
Not sure if serious.

What would Tesla engineers be 'dissecting' exactly? Kona, Leaf? I don't think this is the main reason for M3 improvements.
 
I don't think we will ever know. Tesla has always kept its take rate secret.

The FSD price drop is weird though. The only explanation I can think of is that they want to increase the take rate because they need the data from more drivers using FSD on Hardware 4. This would also explain why Tesla suddenly allowed FSD transfers.

But none of the motivation is clear because Tesla ain't talkin'.
I'm guessing too many people are going with the monthly subscription (better relative value) and then end up cancelling. Current product isn't worth the money.
 
Interesting, nice to see others put numbers on their forecasts. Our models are broadly similar. Setting aside two issues ....

- commercial vs cars;
- future 'steady-state' demand level;

.... I think that data-this-far suggests you are slightly over-optimistic. My graph below is on the basis of (all) total vehicles per Sales Statistics | www.oica.net and I assume steady state of 94m/yr which would be 28m commercial and 66m passenger cars. The point being that in 2030 the S-curve data thus far suggests an outcome of 6m/y of ICE, i.e. 7% ICE remaining at that point vs 87m BEV, 93%. Hence my thought that you are being more optimistic than the data thus far would tend to support. You are suggesting a 100% transfer by 2030 whereas I think it will be a 93% transfer by 2030.

If there is a change in the commercial vs passenger build ratio then that might affect matters, though I don't think that likely to stray far from the 68-70% norm. Of course the US-ians with their distorting "light trucks" are the fly in the ointment here, but Tesla Cybertruck is about to show the way. That in turn suggests to me that the existing distortion will remain unchanged.

If there is a different steady-state-ish mfg volume then that could affect things. A higher volume (which is what you are suggesting as you are only counting passenger cars) would really tend to delay the switch, i.e. the reverse of the mkt share ICE/BEV that you suggest. There might be various complex dynamic issues in play at that point which on balance I think would tend to suppress demand. The 2016-2018 total peak was 95-97m/yr so that informed my view of 94m/yr given that thought. I don't have a formal validated dynamic model of this issue so I am driving on my own judgement in this respect.

I tend to agree that all PHEV, HEV, and FCEV are distracting rounding errors that will have largely washed through by then.

Year by year the data flows in and we can reflect this in our models.

View attachment 971010

The assumptions presented were based on steady global demand as I understood it (a valid assumption without additional data).

I see the number of vehicles reduced over time and the mix shifting more toward 50/50 commercial/passenger, likely even further (I'm counting robotaxis as commercial which is how we should think of swarm movement).

So here's my chart, based on zero data, but creative and no less. When I factor in generational trends such as kids not wanting to own a vehicle or can't afford one privately as an individual, the future (needs) might look very different.

I like to fall back on manufacturing and use Machine Utilization as a way describe how EVs will be sitting around a lot less often in the (very near) future. Maybe 50M annual is still too many.

1693927923079.png
 
Not sure if serious.

What would Tesla engineers be 'dissecting' exactly? Kona, Leaf? I don't think this is the main reason for M3 improvements.
I think Tesla could learn a lot from some other manufacturers. Don't get me wrong, Teslas are BY FAR the best all-round package, but unless you have never driven other brands, you cant think that Tesla are the best at everything.
The 'feel' of my old 2011 Lexus is much more luxurious than my 22 model Y. Also the suspension on my Y is rough as hell, and unless I have music playing, the squeaks and rattles from the back of the car sound like a bunch of mice doing martial arts.

Personally I care about tech, performance, range and reliability, but not all customers are alike. Some choose a car based purely on how comfortable the seats are. Some care about how fashionable the exterior styling is. Its true that the car-door close down IS an actual factor in people evaluating a car.
Tesla should (and likely do) have a dedicated team that look at equiv-price rival models and see which areas they are better at, in terms of finish.
 
Tesla does not invest in the experience
This post generates several ideas to me.

First, I suppose that Tesla uses the primitive bank tool of wire transfers because of the laggard state of the American banking system. Developed from many separate, and legally required to be separate, local banks, for many years interbank operation in the USA was underdeveloped compared to what the technology would permit, and what existed in other countries. I will note that this made the success of PayPal possible, and US banks seem to be catching up.

Second, it reminded me that Tesla communications with car owners are frustratingly almost non-existent. <<You're thinking of buying one of our cars? We're here for you instantly. You're already on the hook? Don't call us. We don't even have a phone number for you.>> This non-communication is part of why Tesla doesn't understand how annoying their payment system is and, as others have said, will bite them one day. Actually, is probably biting them now in many small ways.

Third, payment through X Finance will likely be very convenient if X comes to fruition.
 
OT my neighbor was razzing me about a news report that a couple of Teslas burned after being submerged in salt floodwaters around the Tampa area. Super annoying.
Please excuse the interruption, I just needed to vent.
There's a bit of irony in his logic. Without the extra added "benefit" of ICE vehicles tweaking our climate, maybe the hurricane flooding would have been lessened.
 
I'm guessing too many people are going with the monthly subscription (better relative value) and then end up cancelling. Current product isn't worth the money.
$15k for a beta FSD was outrageously expensive for most people. I think the choice of saving $15k and having to hand-drive your own car, it's a no-brainer.
 
That's one theory--it could also be that Zach, on his way out--or the new CFO, on his way in--or both--were able to convince Elon to try selling FSD at a lower price as an experiment to see how it would affect revenue/margins.

Or, trying an Occam's Razor approach, maybe they're just trying to get more money and desperately hope that the price cut will combine with V12 hopium to increase FSD sales,
 
This post generates several ideas to me.

First, I suppose that Tesla uses the primitive bank tool of wire transfers because of the laggard state of the American banking system. Developed from many separate, and legally required to be separate, local banks, for many years interbank operation in the USA was underdeveloped compared to what the technology would permit, and what existed in other countries. I will note that this made the success of PayPal possible, and US banks seem to be catching up.

Second, it reminded me that Tesla communications with car owners are frustratingly almost non-existent. <<You're thinking of buying one of our cars? We're here for you instantly. You're already on the hook? Don't call us. We don't even have a phone number for you.>> This non-communication is part of why Tesla doesn't understand how annoying their payment system is and, as others have said, will bite them one day. Actually, is probably biting them now in many small ways.

Third, payment through X Finance will likely be very convenient if X comes to fruition.
The only reliable communications avenue I know of is to schedule service through the APP, then explain the issue in the service description. They are yusually very helpful in their replies.

I always pick the latest service date available, if constantly reschedule it later until the issues is solved then cancel the appointment. To ask questions about solar, I made a deposit, then eventually they contacted me, then I canceled with no problem.