Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Yup. 9 Megacharger stations over 1,800 miles between Giga Texas and Fremont, open to all e-Semi.

@MC3OZ | Post #422,828 | Aug 1, 2023

Cheers!

That's what I figured, too. But the article says. "The route would run from the southern border of Texas to Northern California". Future connection to Monterrey?

edit: from Rob's video. Looks like Monterrey connection.

edit 2: it's about 350 miles from Austin to Ft. Stockton, so this corridor serves Austin too, with no additional Megachargers needed.

edit 3: so assuming Megachargers at Austin and Monterrey, this corridor would set up a Tesla Semi route connecting the Fremont, Austin and Monterrey factories, and the Port of Houston. Pretty neat.

 

[Big Time]

Moderator edit: is there any reason this post exists? Open question for anyone to answer; if none appears in a pretty short time it will be zapped.

lol what an idiot. id spend more than 10 seconds on this photoshop if he was worth it

 

[Big Time]

Hopes of Elliot wave to $350

 

[MP3Mike]

That's what I figured, too. But the article says. "The route would run from the southern border of Texas to Northern California". Future connection to Monterrey?

edit: from Rob's video. Looks like Monterrey connection.

edit 2: it's about 350 miles from Austin to Ft. Stockton, so this corridor serves Austin too, with no additional Megachargers needed.

edit 3: so assuming Megachargers at Austin and Monterrey, this corridor would set up a Tesla Semi route connecting the Fremont, Austin and Monterrey factories, and the Port of Houston. Pretty neat.

View attachment 972911

Don't forget that GigaNevada is only ~240 miles from Fremont. (Or ~411 miles from Bakersfield)

So the route links all of the west coast Tesla factories. (Though it might make sense to add one more MegaCharger site between Giga Nevada and Phoenix, AZ as a more direct route. Well actually, haven't we seen that they were installing a MegaCharger in Las Vegas, so they have already split that so the longest leg is ~446 miles, which is probably pushing it a little given the 714m elevation gain. Though it would probably be fine for trips from GigaNevada.)

 

[AndrewZ]

Well, that’s about as big a misrepresentation one can throw out there of what happened, what will happen, and why.

There was nothing unusual about Tesla making money on new car sales. It happened because they made it happen;

-by being a scrappy startup and doing more with less
-by concentrating religiously on efficiencies and cost reductions in every aspect of the business
-by eliminating the middlemen
-by vertically integrating their business in as many ways as they could
-by being business savvy and know how to grow the business and at what speed
-by taking necessary and calculated risks
-by not being unionized and delay monetarily rewarding their employees via stock options thus keeping wages in check and incentivizing them to work hard
-by delay monetarily rewarding their upper management with stock options thus eliminating bloated executive wages and incentivizing them to work hard
-by cultivating a specific culture and living it
-by not being burdened by legacy costs
- and so on

Tesla has hardly given back profits on new cars. They’re still making money hand over fist. How convenient of you to have forgotten what happened in the world the last 3 years as well the rate of growth and expansion of the company and what they’ve done with their money in totality.

Lastly, the driving reason for reduced prices and thus reduced gross margins is to fix the last barrier to the end goal - affordability for ALL.

Making money on new car sales is unusual and it's not at all unreasonable to think that Tesla may be headed to the place other carmakers inhabit as production volumes increase and vehicles need to be moved.

EVs are lower maintenance in their nature, so they will lack the high-margin revenue stream down the line from parts and maintenance.

Autonomy is what Elon thinks will be the replacement for (and improvement on) that service and maintenance revenue the legacy OEMs depend on to make their money after selling new cars at cost.


"and so on" surely must refer to what Elon cites as the most important factor here but that seems to be omitted from your detailed list: making a product that is so compelling that people are willing to pay a premium for it.


I don't think any of this should be controversial, I'm mostly regurgitating what Elon has said before in interviews etc.

 

[MartinAustin]

I was just about to write "Not a single mention of the Morgan Stanley upgrade or TSLA's +9% jump on CNBC's website."

But they eventually covered it in an article published at 11:48am EST discussing a basket of stocks... claiming the stock was up 6%

 

[NicoV]

Is there any other way for him to be? (Rhetorical). Honestly, if he could pull out the terminator et al excuses, fine by me. Just means a bigger mountain fortress.

Was there anything about killer robots in his research note? Maybe he was just asking questions five years too early on conference calls.

 

[jkirkwood001]

*ahem*

Did anybody notice? /S

Yeah, whatev... (We're so disciplined here on TMC!!)

 

[lascavarian]

Isn't Max Pain based on options, which don't trade pre-market?

I believe you are correct. I don’t look at max pain until 7am eastern time. Max pain last Friday was 245 for that day. The stock closed above MP on Friday.

My expectation was that max pain might move up a bit today. However options traders thought differently perhaps related to the book leaking out a bit/AJ note. Lots of moving parts

I see Max pain as a kind of gravity that is more useful related to closing prices depending on volume influences. When I see something unusual there is the possibility of an increase of uncertainty or something hard to characterize. Maybe it is useful or maybe not. YMMV

 

[Max Plaid]

I believe you are correct. I don’t look at max pain until 7am eastern time. Max pain last Friday was 245 for that day. The stock closed above MP on Friday.

My expectation was that max pain might move up a bit today. However options traders thought differently perhaps related to the book leaking out a bit/AJ note. Lots of moving parts

I see Max pain as a kind of gravity that is more useful related to closing prices depending on volume influences. When I see something unusual there is the possibility of an increase of uncertainty or something hard to characterize. Maybe it is useful or maybe not. YMMV

I reiterate, this Friday is a Triple Witching quarterly OPEX, so there are many open options written when the share price was nowhere near where it is today

 

[Artful Dodger]

then the US (Austin) pilot production 2/Z line will be cell-starved for a long time.

I'd have to verify this with @mongo but I believe there is an IRA provision for fleet (or is it leased?) vehicles which provides an exemption. If so, a Tesla-owned Robotaxi fleet would qualify for the rebate, and thus could use China-sourced batteries. And at any rate, the econonics of the fleet are so good it scarcely matters... No cell-starving there.

 

[Buckminster]

Wow:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1701236184259682329

 

[Artful Dodger]

Strange that as the Premarket TSLA price is in the 260’s max pain has dropped to 232.

Is this some sort of timing artifact? Or something else?

Are you really not aware (after following this Forum for years) that Open Interest is published once per trading day at 07:00 am ET and that it is ALWAYS based upon the previous sessions options trading? :/

I notice you posted your comment at 07:33 am ET so after the update for Friday's session...

 

[Krugerrand]

Making money on new car sales is unusual -

This is static thinking and assuming the past predicts the future. Tesla is not and never has been just like any other OEM. So making money on cars is not unusual for them and never has been. Stop lumping them in with everyone else.

and it's not at all unreasonable to think that Tesla may be headed to the place other carmakers inhabit as production volumes increase and vehicles need to be moved.

Yes, actually it is unreasonable.

EVs are lower maintenance in their nature, so they will lack the high-margin revenue stream down the line from parts and maintenance.

Your point?

Autonomy is what Elon thinks will be the replacement for (and improvement on) that service and maintenance revenue the legacy OEMs depend on to make their money after selling new cars at cost.

He didn’t actually say that. That’s your interpretation of what you think he thinks.

"and so on" surely must refer to what Elon cites as the most important factor here but that seems to be omitted from your detailed list: making a product that is so compelling that people are willing to pay a premium for it.

If you require I can add dozens of other ‘and so ons’, but I figured you’d gotten the gist.

I don't think any of this should be controversial, I'm mostly regurgitating what Elon has said before in interviews etc.

You’re not regurgitating anything Elon said.

 

[SarahsDad]

“Electric cars have a road trip problem, even for the secretary of energy”

https://www.npr.org/2023/09/10/1187224861/electric-vehicles-evs-cars-chargers-charging-energy-secretary-jennifer-granholm

Haven’t seen this posted yet, a piece on NPR yesterday about Secretary of Energy Granholm and EVs. Despite the title, it’s a pretty positive article about Tesla. My favorite quote:

“EVs that aren't Teslas have a road trip problem”.

Also, do you think she got permission from Tony Seba to show his horses vs cars slides?

 

[bkp_duke]

“Electric cars have a road trip problem, even for the secretary of energy”

https://www.npr.org/2023/09/10/1187224861/electric-vehicles-evs-cars-chargers-charging-energy-secretary-jennifer-granholm

Haven’t seen this posted yet, a piece on NPR yesterday about Secretary of Energy Granholm and EVs. Despite the title, it’s a pretty positive article about Tesla. My favorite quote:

“EVs that aren't Teslas have a road trip problem”.

Also, do you think she got permission from Tony Seba to show his horses vs cars slides?

My beef is that should have been in the title, not buried. "EVs that aren't Teslas have a road trip problem".

Tell me they don't have an agenda . . . without telling me they don't have an agenda.

 

[Congo Line]

Never Forget.
9/11

Yes; a major reason I vowed not to buy any more cars that require regular transfers of money to the Saudis (and Russians).

 

[bkp_duke]

My beef is that should have been in the title, not buried. "EVs that aren't Teslas have a road trip problem".

Tell me they don't have an agenda . . . without telling me they don't have an agenda.

Apparently there is even more to this story:

EV driver calls cops on Energy Secretary after her staff blocks charger with ICE car

An EV driver in Georgia called the police on the US Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm, after her staff blocked a...

electrek.co

"An EV driver in Georgia called the police on the US Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm, after her staff blocked a public charger with a gasoline car to “reserve” it for her upcoming convoy of EVs that she was using to highlight the White House investment in electric vehicles."

 

[Rammstein]

I see this MS upgrade as a big deal. It always seems like AJ is the most respected TSLA analyst amongst WS for some odd reason. AJ starting to believe in robotaxis and Teslas AI capabilities will influence the other analysts. I expect them to start dropping like lemmings with upgrade after upgrade. I remember seeing this in the past run where MS put a buy and the rest of WS followed.

Side note I think AJ is a tool/clown.

 

[OrthoSurg]

*ahem*

Did anybody notice? /S

Yeah, whatev... (We're so disciplined here on TMC!!)

View attachment 972930

One of those days at the job I just refresh and smile while hearing people complain