Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ToTheStars]

Most efficient way to run a project is One Engineer.

For me, this does not hold. If I'm working on my own, the velocity is very high, but do I go in the right direction?
When I work together with at least one other engineer, we now have two pairs of eyes to look at the same problem, and the second pair of eyes will definitely point out some flaws in my reasoning.

Step 4 of the 5 Step Process of Elon contains this: "if you're digging your grave, don't dig it faster, stop digging your grave."

 

[NicoV]

Tesla wins a large part of the EU subsidies for fast chargers:
134 million euro (of a total of 352) for “The project aims at deploying 6,458 recharging points (250 kW) for LDV in 613 locations in 16 countries (AT, BE, BG, DE, ES, FI, FR, IE, IT, LV, LT, LU, NL, RO, SK, SE) along the Core and Comprehensive Network. The project foresees both the deployment of new recharging stations and the replacement of existing outdated recharging points not satisfying the requirement of the ca in terms of recharging capacity and open-accessibility.”
And another similar one of 15 million euro for 6 eastern european countries (740 chargers in 74 locations).

https://cinea.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-09/CEF-T-2021-AFIF_Cut-off%204_List%20of%20projects_FINAL_0.pdf

So it looks like Tesla is going to upgrade all old superchargers with EU subsidies.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Tesla Semi is killing it with 729 miles in one day with some extra charging during delivery stops.

Outstanding.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1701846620168728691

 

[Buckminster]

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1701840820184244460?s=20

 

[hobbes]

Tesla wins a large part of the EU subsidies for fast chargers:
134 million euro (of a total of 352) for “The project aims at deploying 6,458 recharging points (250 kW) for LDV in 613 locations in 16 countries (AT, BE, BG, DE, ES, FI, FR, IE, IT, LV, LT, LU, NL, RO, SK, SE) along the Core and Comprehensive Network. The project foresees both the deployment of new recharging stations and the replacement of existing outdated recharging points not satisfying the requirement of the ca in terms of recharging capacity and open-accessibility.”
And another similar one of 15 million euro for 6 eastern european countries (740 chargers in 74 locations).

https://cinea.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-09/CEF-T-2021-AFIF_Cut-off%204_List%20of%20projects_FINAL_0.pdf

So it looks like Tesla is going to upgrade all old superchargers with EU subsidies.

Cool, do you have an idea when the money will start to flow? The document you linked says "final"..

Also interesting how much more charging points Tesla plans to build compared to the competitors, noone even close. Second is at around 1500 compared to Tesla´s 6458. All others seem to be more specialized (certain region, just one corridor, hydrogen). None of the well known networks (ionity, fastned) to be found. Why?

 

[hobbes]

EU looking into possible market distortion by cheap subsidized Chinese EVs, might affect Tesla too indirectly by slowing down Chinese competitors:

EU Hits China With Probe Into EV Subsidy as Industry Fears Grow

The European Union is launching an investigation into Chinese subsidies for electric vehicles as the bloc frets over the ability of its industry to compete.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Nrkl]

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1701840820184244460?s=20

Could you provide a screenshot, text, or something other than just the link please?

 

[Buckminster]

Could you provide a screenshot, text, or something other than just the link please?

NEWS: According to leading analysts Benchmark Lithium, the global weighted average price of lithium ion battery cells fell 8.7% in August, taking it below the $100/kWh mark for the first time since August, 2021.

 

[SPadival]

NEWS: According to leading analysts Benchmark Lithium, the global weighted average price of lithium ion battery cells fell 8.7% in August, taking it below the $100/kWh mark for the first time since August, 2021.

FYI, until TMC recognises X.com links, you can manually change the url from x.com to www.twitter.com for it to render correctly. (Not that I enjoy looking at Soy boi’s mugshot)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1701840820184244460

 

[Nrkl]

FYI, until TMC recognises X.com links, you can manually change the url from x.com to www.twitter.com for it to render correctly. (Not that I enjoy looking at Soy boi’s mugshot)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1701840820184244460

I was wondering why some “tweets” show up correctly and some don’t.

 

[petit_bateau]

Tesla wins a large part of the EU subsidies for fast chargers:
134 million euro (of a total of 352) for “The project aims at deploying 6,458 recharging points (250 kW) for LDV in 613 locations in 16 countries (AT, BE, BG, DE, ES, FI, FR, IE, IT, LV, LT, LU, NL, RO, SK, SE) along the Core and Comprehensive Network. The project foresees both the deployment of new recharging stations and the replacement of existing outdated recharging points not satisfying the requirement of the ca in terms of recharging capacity and open-accessibility.”
And another similar one of 15 million euro for 6 eastern european countries (740 chargers in 74 locations).

https://cinea.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-09/CEF-T-2021-AFIF_Cut-off%204_List%20of%20projects_FINAL_0.pdf

So it looks like Tesla is going to upgrade all old superchargers with EU subsidies.

That document also explains the existence of the Macedonian Gap and the Serbian Scarcity, the Albanian Absence and the Missing Montenegro, along with the Bosnian Black Hole.

All of which makes taking a BEV southwards through the Balkans a somewhat tedious and fraught experience.

(praise be to whoever did put those two sites into Serbia, but we need more)

 

[Max Plaid]

Cool, do you have an idea when the money will start to flow? The document you linked says "final"..

Also interesting how much more charging points Tesla plans to build compared to the competitors, noone even close. Second is at around 1500 compared to Tesla´s 6458. All others seem to be more specialized (certain region, just one corridor, hydrogen). None of the well known networks (ionity, fastned) to be found. Why?

Funding is coming from the EU CEF Transport programme, specifically the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Facility calls: Funding & tenders

You can see that the last cutoff for proposals was April, so likely the evaluation process that produced the award would have finalised recently, hence it became public. Typically the time to grant following notification of the award is around 3 months, so before the end of the year, although if Tesla know the money is coming the could typically start sooner

Once the grant is signed, it will appear on this page: Funding & tenders

Edit: I see @NicoV found the CINEA evaluation results PDF, which is some good sleuthing, I didn't even realise it was publicly available. More info here: Transport infrastructure: over EUR 352 million of EU funding to boost greener mobility

And yes, EU has been throwing money at hydrogen since forever, they used to have a Joint undertaking call FCH "Fuel Cell Hydrogen" running, I'm not sure what happened to that though

 

[Mengy]

Heh, Ron Barron just called the Tesla $25K compact the "Model 2" on CNBC!

 

[NicoV]

Cool, do you have an idea when the money will start to flow? The document you linked says "final"..

Also interesting how much more charging points Tesla plans to build compared to the competitors, noone even close. Second is at around 1500 compared to Tesla´s 6458. All others seem to be more specialized (certain region, just one corridor, hydrogen). None of the well known networks (ionity, fastned) to be found. Why?

Ionity got some subsidies from an earlier call: https://cinea.ec.europa.eu/system/f...mmunication item_List of projects_FINAL_0.pdf

I couldn’t find any deadlines on the page linking to the pdf: Alternative fuels infrastructure: €352 million in EU funding for low-and zero-emission transport projects

 

[hobbes]

Funding is coming from the EU CEF Transport programme, specifically the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Facility calls: Funding & tenders

You can see that the last cutoff for proposals was April, so likely the evaluation process that produced the award would have finalised recently, hence it became public. Typically the time to grant following notification of the award is around 3 months, so before the end of the year, although if Tesla know the money is coming the could typically start sooner

Once the grant is signed, it will appear on this page: Funding & tenders

Edit: I see @NicoV found the CINEA evaluation results PDF, which is some good sleuthing, I didn't even realise it was publicly available. More info here: Transport infrastructure: over EUR 352 million of EU funding to boost greener mobility

And yes, EU has been throwing money at hydrogen since forever, they used to have a Joint undertaking call FCH "Fuel Cell Hydrogen" running, I'm not sure what happened to that though

Article with some good context: Neue EU-Ladeförderung: Tesla soll 149 Mio. Euro bekommen – 42% von gesamtem Budget

- this is round four of 5, so the other charging companies I was missing could have been in the previous ones (EDIT: looks like I was right, thanks @NicoV )
- this round has 352MEuro, more than twice the 160M of the previous rounds combined
- 42% of this round goes to Tesla, similar looks like recently in the US

 

[NicoV]

Article with some good context: Neue EU-Ladeförderung: Tesla soll 149 Mio. Euro bekommen – 42% von gesamtem Budget

- this is round four of 5, so the other charging companies I was missing could have been in the previous ones
- this round has 352MEuro, more than twice the 160M of the previous rounds combined
- 42% of this round goes to Tesla, similar looks like recently in the US

There’s a billion euro available in round 4 and 5, so that means still 650 million euro available in round 5. It looks like the first rounds were for major routes, and the following rounds for less major routes. That bodes well for Tesla, since they are now filling up spots in less major rout’s.

edit: link with budgets CEF Transport Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Facility call for proposal

 

[unk45]

That document also explains the existence of the Macedonian Gap and the Serbian Scarcity, the Albanian Absence and the Missing Montenegro, along with the Bosnian Black Hole.

All of which makes taking a BEV southwards through the Balkans a somewhat tedious and fraught experience.

(praise be to whoever did put those two sites into Serbia, but we need more)

View attachment 973508

Still, there are a large number of decent level 2 AC options in these places. I’ve used them in Montenegro, as well as Nothern Greece, including Corfu where I’m diving an EV right now, if a Kia Niro EV counts. Fast charging options are nearly nonexistent, and those are the ones people count, even if Level 2 AC does the job overnight even where they are not listed anywhere.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Tesla Semi is killing it with 729 miles in one day with some extra charging during delivery stops.

Outstanding.

View attachment 973489View attachment 973490

https://twitter.com/x/status/1701846620168728691

Not bad. Looks like real world range @ 65mph is ~ 425 - 450 miles with whatever load they are carrying.

But definitely not 500 miles.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1701936360041357655

 

[JusRelax]

Heh, Ron Barron just called the Tesla $25K compact the "Model 2" on CNBC!

One concern I have - Ron Baron said they'd be up (in terms of units of cars sold) only 20-30% this year, and the same next year. Just for context:

In 2022, Tesla sold 1.31 million units

Based off of 20% unit growth projections:

2023 - 1.57 million units
2024 - 1.89 million units

Based off of 30% unit growth projections:

2023 - 1.7 million units
2024 - 2.21 million units

These numbers are extremely conservative, aren't they? If Tesla sells 1.57-1.7 million units in 2023, I think TSLA is guaranteed to crash back into the $100s.

So is Ron Baron just spitballing conservative numbers, or does he have some kind of guidance directly from Tesla?