Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GhostSkater]

Do we know if these data are finally allowing Tesla to green light to ramp up production?
With ramp up, I mean at least 1 Semi per day, instead of 1 per month.
IIRC, the real ramp up (10'000 per year) will arrive in 2025.

Don't think so, looks like they haven't even started working on the actual production line, might need the building expansion to start, or might not since Megapack lines got taken down, so there might be room

Last info is that Tesla is making a second pilot line that is more automated

 

[MD70]

https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1702361225030517060?s=46&t=_ZWFOBbx4xiS9UI94-893Q

 

[Pezpunk]

oof what a crappy, misleading chart. the lines represent a percent of a cumulative amount, which massively skews the degree to which CA (and to a lesser degree Tesla) are dominating in the most recent years of the chart. It'd be far more informative to show percentage of sales by year, rather than the very weird cumulative total percent.

 

[Christine69420]

Does anyone remember if this is a reduction from previous 2030 predicts from Baron? I consider him a hyper-bull, yet I am expecting more by 2030....

Billionaire investor Ron Baron says Elon Musk's Tesla could hit a $4 trillion valuation​

Billionaire investor Ron Baron says Elon Musk's Tesla could hit a $4 trillion valuation - and reveals a $1 billion SpaceX stake

Tesla's market cap could grow between four- and fivefold by the end of the decade, the billionaire investor said Tuesday.

markets.businessinsider.com

In my notes I have a "2T valuation by 2030" made by Ron ca Oct 14th of 2020.

 

[AndrewZ]

Do we know if these data are finally allowing Tesla to green light to ramp up production?
With ramp up, I mean at least 1 Semi per day, instead of 1 per month.
IIRC, the real ramp up (10'000 per year) will arrive in 2025.

Yeah volume production is supposed to be happening at a Giga Nevada expansion and I don't believe that has even started yet, and then Tesla has applied for funding for a Semi charging corridor that would also need to be built. Whether one corridor is enough to justify volume production, or whether more is in the works, or other plans have changed, who knows.

 

[Tony73]

Do we know if these data are finally allowing Tesla to green light to ramp up production?
With ramp up, I mean at least 1 Semi per day, instead of 1 per month.
IIRC, the real ramp up (10'000 per year) will arrive in 2025.

A semi a day does nothing for Tesla. They might deliver a few more semis somewhere that experiences a real winter to get some data but continuous production is unlikely until the real line and its cell supply are ready.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Tesla sales "Need to branch out" is the point below from Bloomberg. Starting to happen, but California is slacking.

US Electric Vehicle Sales Reach Breakthrough Pace

It took a decade to sell the first million EVs but just a year to reach the third million.

www.bloomberg.com

"For EVs to become truly mainstream across the US, and for the Detroit auto industry to survive the transition, markets need to branch out. That’s starting to happen geographically, with California losing some of its US EV share to states like Texas, Florida, Washington and New Jersey. Tesla, however, is still very much in the driver’s seat, responsible for 61% of EVs ever sold in the US."

This is just silly, California isn't "losing share" to other states, other states are just buying more EV's than they were before.

The next article linked below shows that California EV sales are still increasing at a rapid pace:

California Shows an Electric-Car Uprising Headed for the US

EV sales in the Golden State jumped 70% last quarter, a prelude of what’s to come across the country.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is just silly, California isn't "losing share" to other states, other states are just buying more EV's than they were before.

The next article linked below shows that California EV sales are still increasing at a rapid pace:

California Shows an Electric-Car Uprising Headed for the US

EV sales in the Golden State jumped 70% last quarter, a prelude of what’s to come across the country.

www.bloomberg.com

Did I take the bait? Oh well. was only trying to elaborate on a cryptic link shared prior. Maybe should del…
Poof!

 

[Max Plaid]

Tesla reinvents carmaking with quiet breakthrough

Tesla has combined a series of innovations to make a technological breakthrough that could transform the way it makes electric vehicles and help Elon Musk achieve his aim of halving production costs.

www.reuters.com

And the related patent:

WIPO - Search International and National Patent Collections

A positive Tesla article from Reuters, we have reached the end of days...

 

[EQC_]

This is just silly, California isn't "losing share" to other states, other states are just buying more EV's than they were before.

Perhaps the author was confused by all the dumb articles and analysts claiming Tesla is "losing EV market share" as though that artificial metric matters when Tesla is simultaneously increasing sales and gaining share in the total auto market.

Best I can tell, the misguided argument (using wrong numbers just to illustrate) is that when Tesla sold 480,000 EV's per year, and everybody else combined sold 20,000 EVs, Tesla had a 96% Market Share!

But now, Tesla is selling 1,500,000 EVs per year, and everybody else combined is selling 500,000. Tesla now only has a 75% market share and is clearly in catastrophic freefall!

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Does anyone remember if this is a reduction from previous 2030 predicts from Baron? I consider him a hyper-bull, yet I am expecting more by 2030....

Billionaire investor Ron Baron says Elon Musk's Tesla could hit a $4 trillion valuation​

Billionaire investor Ron Baron says Elon Musk's Tesla could hit a $4 trillion valuation - and reveals a $1 billion SpaceX stake

Tesla's market cap could grow between four- and fivefold by the end of the decade, the billionaire investor said Tuesday.

markets.businessinsider.com

A lot has to go right to get a 5X in 7 years.

 

[EVMeister]

A lot has to go right to get a 5X in 7 years.

If a lot goes right, 5x is extremely conservative in my view.

 

[AudubonB]

In my notes I have a "2T valuation by 2030" made by Ron ca Oct 14th of 2020.

Mid-Oct 2020 TSLA had approximately $450bn in market cap; now approximately double that.

I'm going to join those two data and say Mr B has maintained a $3T "possible" mark by 2030, plus or minus $1T.

 

[Christine69420]

Mid-Oct 2020 TSLA had approximately $450bn in market cap; now approximately double that.

I'm going to join those two data and say Mr B has maintained a $3T "possible" mark by 2030, plus or minus $1T.

What is a trillion among friends?

 

[AudubonB]

More than I make most weeks.

 

[GhostSkater]

If a lot goes right, 5x is extremely conservative in my view.

For those that do their own modeling here, what is your prediction for 2030 and maybe beyond? I don't even try to model anything finance wise since it's not my thing

 

[Open Interest]

Mid-Oct 2020 TSLA had approximately $450bn in market cap; now approximately double that.

I'm going to join those two data and say Mr B has maintained a $3T "possible" mark by 2030, plus or minus $1T.

Can we project a share price from this, if the market applies a 20 or 30 multiple?
(Stupid question probably but I don’t know how to do this)

 

[Words of HABIT]

Danger is Ford will throw another fit: Ford Model A

What about Model 8, pronounced AAAAT.
Worked well for Model 3 instead of Model T.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

If a lot goes right, 5x is extremely conservative in my view.

And your view is shared by most on here.

 

[2daMoon]

A lot has to go right to get a 5X in 7 years.

I'm okay with that.