Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

climate change could be averted by 2035 (or earlier).

Effectively zero chance of this happening, and I'm not referring to the extreme unlikeliness of humanity achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2035 (or 2050, or even 2100).

Read about momentum in the climate system, a.k.a. the time-delay between net-zero emissions and the full effect of current emissions (hint: polar ice caps keep melting and oceans keep rising). Then there's delayed release of sequestered carbon in the Arctic permafrost. There's at least 4x the amount of frozen carbon in soils and methane clathrates as currently exists in the atmosphere (release over 100-200 year time frame).

TL;dr In reality you are not fighting to 'avert' climate change, that's already baked into Earth's energy budget. You're fighting to slow the inevitable, to give us a chance to adapt (especially the poorer nations). And the fight will go on for 7 generations if we work hard and are lucky. Otherwise, 200+ generations if short-termers like Exxon and OPEC get their way.

Tesla can be a part of that fight, but the outcome will not be what you might imagine.

 

[MC3OZ]

Not sure this the right thread, but I fear you are very, very optimistic.
Climate change is already here, we probably have surpassed 1.2 /1.5° Celsius, and even if Elon could snap his fingers and solve in a second all transport and logistics and heating and food emissions, we'd be still at 1.5°. And it already shows.
There is no meaningful carbon capture technology (I don't think anybody won Musk prize of a few years ago) and the carbon sinks we already had (forests) are sometime flipping into carbon sources (Canadian forests...).
Climate change is very, very much unsolved, right now.
AGI by tomorrow could help us with carbon capture, sure. There's hope with that.

IMO we are on a evolutionary treadmill of technological innovation, we need to keep improving our technology just to fix up problems caused by previous generations of technology, the evolution of diseases, and some problems we don't yet even know about.

The flip side of problems is opportunities, there are opportunities we are not yet aware of.

Elon has done a lot to buy time for future generations to solve the remaining problems and take opportunities in time. But even more valuable than that, Elon has shown the value of attempting to solve problems, the personal reward, and the commercial reward.

 

[MC3OZ]

Read about momentum in the climate, a.k.a. the time-delay between the end of emissions and the full effect of current emissions due to feedbacks. Then there's the release of sequestered carbon in the Arctic permafrost. There's at least 4x the amount of frozen carbon in soils and methane clathrates as exist currently in the atmosphere (100-200 year time frame).

As it is the weekend ... this talk by Al Gore is well worth watching and up-to-date:-

Just before the end around 24 mins in Al states;-

If we get to true net zero, global temperatures will stop going up with a lag of as little as three to five years.

 

[Nrkl]

FWIW climate is a system that will never be stable. It’s always looking for homeostasis through the help of biosphere. Thinking that we can come up with technological substitutes to these biological systems that have been keeping the planet habitable for millions of years is peak hubris, and tells how little some understand about complexity.

The treadmill metphor is apt, the problem is that increasingly we are all in the same treadmill and constantly accelerating . At some point there will be a collapse simply due to inherent lags in feedback, and us trying to fix these delayed problems faster and faster, so the new problems accumulate.

 

[UkNorthampton]

FWIW climate is a system that will never be stable. It’s always looking for homeostasis through the help of biosphere. Thinking that we can come up with technological substitutes to these biological systems that have been keeping the planet habitable for millions of years is peak hubris, and tells how little some understand about complexity.

The treadmill metphor is apt, the problem is that increasingly we are all in the same treadmill and constantly accelerating . At some point there will be a collapse simply due to inherent lags in feedback, and us trying to fix these delayed problems faster and faster, so the new problems accumulate.

When you realise you're in a hole, first thing you do is stop digging. Once we've stopped digging we have a chance of filling the hole in.

There is momentum in climate (fires, methane release, droughts), on some measures (4 out of 10) we've made Earth dangerous for humanity. However I'm more hopeful (post Musk, Tesla, renewables) than I was before.

I've noticed silence from environmental groups/leaders I follow regarding Master Plan Part 3. VERY disappointing. Part of the answer is in plain sight.

 

[Yuha]

There is no meaningful carbon capture technology (I don't think anybody won Musk prize of a few years ago)

The XPrize for Carbon Removal funded by Elon is still going on. The demonstration window for the Final Round is February 1, 2024 - January 31, 2025 and the winners will be announced in April 2025.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I see - thank you. Looks like they partnered with the Earth Fund folks on this.

Regardless, may the S curve continue with alacrity.

Interestingly, I read (WaPo, paywalled likely, sorry) today that eastern Oregon (very politically red) wants to split off from western Oregon (very politically blue) and join their neighboring state to the east, Idaho. In large part because of fear/resentment of Oregon's recent move to eliminate ICE sales in 2035, with various culture war disagreements also in the mix.
That RMI report (and many other things) seem to indicate ICE will have lost the battle well before that ban comes into effect.
This is not to downplay concerns about lack of electric farm equipment, which is a battle that must be won before rural areas will fully come on board, and is quite a different beast than our tiny 4-door sedans and SUVs.

In my mind, the whole “banning ICE by 203n" is an unneeded tactic that triggers the “they want to take my car away” crowd. If "our" analysis is correct, this will be an organic process that should leave no one *wanting* to purchase an ICE vehicle in that timeframe. Incentives, infrastructure buildout for EV's, yes. Penalties for ICE, no.

 

[mongo]

The single large casting for Gen3 is confusing, because it conflicts with what we were told about "operator density" on Investor Day. However, what makes sense to be is a single casting for the roof and the side pillars, If that was done, the bulk of the car body is made up of castings, most of the traditional body-shop concept is eliminated

Cast lower portion of car (front, rear, rockers) in one piece and run it down the assembly line side ways. Easy trunk and underhood access, plus no moving parts halfway across car width.
Interior is minimal and there is free vertical access to drop in the rear seat (after pack mating) and front dash/ instrument panel (possibly single pre-assembled module).

 

[winfield100]

In my mind, the whole “banning ICE by 203n" is an unneeded tactic that triggers the “they want to take my car away” crowd. If "our" analysis is correct, this will be an organic process that should leave no one *wanting* to purchase an ICE vehicle in that timeframe. Incentives, infrastructure buildout for EV's, yes. Penalties for ICE, no.

appeal to their wallets.

buy fossil fuel at increasingly exorbitant rates, (If you can find any, as stations close)
(repurpose old ornate gas pumps as EV chargers? steampunk style or Borg 7 of 9 rechargers as whimsy)

(the "penalty" for ICE will be "wallet-ectomie$", self inflicted)
or
_manufacture_
(like many of us do)
electricity from "virtually zero marginal cost" sunlight
(17,400kwh/yr)(70mega watt hours total so far)

example of repurposed gas pump as charger perhaps.....just add charging cable

 

[Krugerrand]

So, here's something I've been ruminating on (and might be a good weekend topic):

I turn 50 in 2034; 40 next year. For all intents and purposes climate change could be averted by 2035 (or earlier). We might get AGI before then too. Heck, people might be on Mars and humanity might have solved all brain diseases.

...so, then what?

Also, how would you live your life in the present moment with Elon Musk and teams kinda fixing everything sustainability?

I admire your optimism but you should plan as I am:

 

[betstarship]

Not sure this the right thread, but I fear you are very, very optimistic.
Climate change is already here, we probably have surpassed 1.2 /1.5° Celsius, and even if Elon could snap his fingers and solve in a second all transport and logistics and heating and food emissions, we'd be still at 1.5°. And it already shows.
There is no meaningful carbon capture technology (I don't think anybody won Musk prize of a few years ago) and the carbon sinks we already had (forests) are sometime flipping into carbon sources (Canadian forests...).
Climate change is very, very much unsolved, right now.
AGI by tomorrow could help us with carbon capture, sure. There's hope with that.

Effectively zero chance of this happening, and I'm not referring to the extreme unlikeliness of humanity achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2035 (or 2050, or even 2100).

Read about momentum in the climate system, a.k.a. the time-delay between net-zero emissions and the full effect of current emissions (hint: polar ice caps keep melting and oceans keep rising). Then there's delayed release of sequestered carbon in the Arctic permafrost. There's at least 4x the amount of frozen carbon in soils and methane clathrates as currently exists in the atmosphere (release over 100-200 year time frame).

TL;dr In reality you are not fighting to 'avert' climate change, that's already baked into Earth's energy budget. You're fighting to slow the inevitable, to give us a chance to adapt (especially the poorer nations). And the fight will go on for 7 generations if we work hard and are lucky. Otherwise, 200+ generations if short-termers like Exxon and OPEC get their way.

Tesla can be a part of that fight, but the outcome will not be what you might imagine.

Thanks! I am cautiously optimistic - personally and abstractly, there's a lot of new discoveries across many industries. I've been noticing the FDA is opening up all sorts of new breakthrough devices. There's many unrelated sectors experiencing "better and more discoveries and innovations than what we're used to". Also, we're experiencing the hottest summer on record and significant events and "firsts" for almost every geographic region when it comes to weather.

NASA confirms summer 2023 was Earth's hottest on record

"Things that we said would come to pass are coming to pass."

www.space.com

That is, in no doubt, creating trickle down effects to how people react and act in accordance with both trends (i.e. progress vs. environment) coming at a head to each other and mixing and matching.

Even the CEO of Deep Mind (and many others) are starting to feel confident AGI will happen within the decade:

When will AGI arrive? Here’s what our tech lords predict

DeepMind's CEO has revealed new predictions for the arrival of AGI. Here's how they compare to the forecasts of other tech titans.

thenextweb.com

 

[betstarship]

I admire your optimism but you should plan as I am:

View attachment 974603

I'm taking a different approach!

Renovate into a eco-friendly house that pragmatically converts towards dealing with climate change and being sustainable. Something with easy/quick access to freeways and family and not too expensive just in case housing takes a dump OR gets significantly more valuable because everyone has to migrate to locations that are safer in a post-climate-change world.

This is already kinda happening:

More than 80% of home shoppers consider climate risks when looking for a new home - Sep 5, 2023

zillow.mediaroom.com

Help where possible in the areas I know in my own limited way.

 

[scaesare]

And the fight will go on for 7 generations if we work hard and are lucky. Otherwise, 200+ generations if short-termers like Exxon and OPEC get their way.

If things go on Oil Companies getting their way for 200+ generations (4,000+ years), it's game over.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm taking a different approach!

Renovate into a eco-friendly house that pragmatically converts towards dealing with climate change and being sustainable. Something with easy/quick access to freeways and family and not too expensive just in case housing takes a dump OR gets significantly more valuable because everyone has to migrate to locations that are safer in a post-climate-change world.

This is already kinda happening:

More than 80% of home shoppers consider climate risks when looking for a new home - Sep 5, 2023

zillow.mediaroom.com

Help where possible in the areas I know in my own limited way.

Again, I admire your approach. I just don’t have enough faith in humanity. We’re selfish, stupid, and too easily corrupted.

Case in point and to bring the discussion back on topic: TSLA/Tesla

- purposeful false narratives and spreading of lies to protect self-interests
- ignorance about the company, its product, its CEO etc., and less than zero desire to find out or know the truth
- demonstrative manipulations, some of them even legal (ie., who’s responsible for allowing the system to be manipulated in such a way that a single ticker is responsible for 50% of the entire options market and, and, and)
- multitude of self-grandiose opinions spread as facts about EVs and all the ways they are ‘bad’ by so many people who haven’t a clue and don’t care to have one.

And you’re optimistic we can survive the boulder we’ve already pushed down the mountain? I say ignorance is bliss, but I hope you’re right for the planet’s sake and the sake of all the species; just not the homosapiens.

 

[betstarship]

Again, I admire your approach. I just don’t have enough faith in humanity. We’re selfish, stupid, and too easily corrupted.

Case in point and to bring the discussion back on topic: TSLA/Tesla

- purposeful false narratives and spreading of lies to protect self-interests
- ignorance about the company, its product, its CEO etc., and less than zero desire to find out or know the truth
- demonstrative manipulations, some of them even legal (ie., who’s responsible for allowing the system to be manipulated in such a way that a single ticker is responsible for 50% of the entire options market and, and, and)
- multitude of self-grandiose opinions spread as facts about EVs and all the ways they are ‘bad’ by so many people who haven’t a clue and don’t care to have one.

And you’re optimistic we can survive the boulder we’ve already pushed down the mountain? I say ignorance is bliss, but I hope you’re right for the planet’s sake and the sake of all the species; just not the homosapiens.

Thanks, I hope what I'm tracking and what I'm hoping happens based on tracking these trend lines actually happens.

In the meantime, looking forward to buying as many Tesla products I can find. Also, get others on board to buy Tesla products and get onto renewables.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

If "our" analysis is correct, this will be an organic process that should leave no one *wanting* to purchase an ICE vehicle in that timeframe

New research by RMI confirms ‘our’ analysis, biggest markets like China and Europe will be at >90% share of car sales even before 2030.

EVs to surpass two-thirds of global car sales by 2030, putting at risk nearly half of oil demand, new research finds - RMI

Exponential growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales is transforming the auto sector faster than currently predicted.

rmi.org

 

[2daMoon]

Cast lower portion of car (front, rear, rockers) in one piece and run it down the assembly line side ways. Easy trunk and underhood access, plus no moving parts halfway across car width.
Interior is minimal and there is free vertical access to drop in the rear seat (after pack mating) and front dash/ instrument panel (possibly single pre-assembled module).

Um, yeah, about that rear seat...

 

[Cosmacelf]

Can we move climate discussion into the appropriate threads?

We all know of Joe Tegmeyer’s Giga Texas videos, here’s a new channel doing the same thing for Giga Nevada as they start construction on a new 4680 cell line and Semi manufacturing line:

Anyone know why there are a bazillion truck trailers just sitting there?

 

[mongo]

Um, yeah, about that rear seat...

Thanks! Use of the Model Y as a reference has obviously biased my viewpoint.
Even less reason not to use a single underbody casting then.

 

[ZeApelido]

Watch out Tesla, Vinfast is coming.