Could 375k be the number for just the current building? The next assembly building to go up will be twice as big and probably be used for production of the smaller next gen vehicle. It will be produced in much larger numbers.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Could 375k be the number for just the current building? The next assembly building to go up will be twice as big and probably be used for production of the smaller next gen vehicle. It will be produced in much larger numbers.
GhostSkater
Member
I'm really looking forward what their strategy is for charging at lower voltage chargers, which obviously works since we saw it charging
I'm wondering if it's a possibility that Tesla has been replacing cables for the 1000 V of NACS under our noses, since other than that V3 should be capable of 1000 V
Sadly, all the media will take/interpret from this list is:
- Tesla Q3 < Q2
- No cost savings from deflation of materials
- Berlin ramp less than planned (due to low demand of course)
- Tesla concedes pickup truck crown to other truck makers with only 250K annual production target
In Joe's latest video he states that the production shutdown at Austin might last until the end of September.I used to think it would be September 30th. But they're not giving enough time for buyers to travel to the location. BUT... if it's employees first, and they all work locally, they can all do it. Maybe one week's notice is all that's reasonably required for the media.
Maybe there will be no delivery event at all. Tesla is loathe to stoke demand at this point and would rather have test data from employee guinea-pigs than fanfare.
Maybe Tesla have to wait for government paperwork to complete before that stuff happens so they can't really schedule it until they have the go-ahead. (crash tests & other homologation, etc. stuff)
Maybe the "RC" labelling on vehicles is a way to allow early owner-employees to drive around and do normal things in their Cybertrucks... then the labels get peeled off after government hurdles are passed.
Maybe it simply isn't happening in Q3. Thus is an extremely important product for Tesla, and the renewable energy mission, and they want to get it right.
A whole lotta maybes and no real answers
All lines are shutdown with no cars being produced for a 2-3 week period, the amount of equipment going into all areas including 4680 production is staggering... There is a lot of equipment staged to go in, looks like at least 1 more week until a lot of that staged equipment is brought inside the factory.
I doubt that they will have an event before they can clean up the site, I also think any factory tour might include the CT line and if it did they would want that line to be running.
IMO it looks like no delivery event before mid-October. If it is mid-October they will probably inform attendees around the end of September.
The Austin shutdown is typical Tesla where a small amount of short term bad news ultimately means a lot of good news long term.
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I don't know that I believe the US Model 3 version will not have castings. Freemont has a Gigapress for Y already.
Refresh will like the Chinese ver just to scale up production at the fastest pace. They have plenty of gigacasting machines @shanghai.
MountainRatMat
Member
I agree with this but also, as people that follow Tesla closely why don't we use it to our advantage?
Get that dry powder ready. If the stock does take a big hit after Q3 P&D and Q3 earnings then it is a buying opportunity because it is a temporary blip that is nothing to worry about.
Do note that this report came out a few weeks ago and things have changed. The note was published on Sept 6th and their visit was earlier than that. I feel their highland ramp in China is better than expected(just like every car they produced in China). I also know for a fact Elon will push for 500k deliveries for Q4.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
We've discussed the Long Term Stock Exchange (LTSE) here previously. Official website.
I think its an unlikely move since many TSLA shareholders still depend upon the liquidity that being on NASDAQ provides, Elon no the least of which (when he needs Mars money, after 2028, he'll have to find a way to extract cash w/o the 'pile-on' effects of short selling). But for now, even Employee stock-based compensation requires good liquidity. FTDs are a separate problem, like living with a chronic disease (or a worthless BIL).
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The Phase 1 (current) building is getting a second stamping press right now. It's unlikely they'd build another w/o plans to double Model Y production by adding a 2nd GA line. I suspect its more about establishing local battery production than it is about 'labor', or any other ideas floated recently by Deutsche Bank (I don't believe they are giving unfiltered info w/o filtering through their own wants, desires, and hopes).
So the 2nd GA line likely depends upon progress in Austin wrt 4680 proof-of-performance. Once it's running at the mothership, cloning bty cell lines will follow in Berlin.
The new building (Phase 2) is for Gen3 vehicles, hence it will be highly automated. I expect more 'optimistic' robots than people will work there. My fantasy is that Tesla expands production at 50% per year while decreasing labor cost per unit to below the UAQ's insane wage increase demands (ie: if the Gen3 car is to cost 50% less to produce than Model 3/Y, I expect total labor cost to also be reduced by 50%)
Cheers!
Yeah, but do Robots work night-shifts?
I've officially gone Plaid today!
Picked this baby up today. HW4 all around, FSD transferred from my M3 and with the updated matrix headlight too.
While there, there was another Model S Plaid delivered and at least 5 Ys.
The main thing I think it's worth mentioning in this particular thread is about my delivery experience comparing to the two previous one in 2019 and 2020 respectively.
Tesla, at least Canada, has gotten the delivery process really streamlined. Upon check-in, they take the payment check, and give you all the paperworks in a clipper binder.
One goes to inspect the car with the binder, make note on any issue and whatnot, then sign all the paperworks for transfer of ownership. Once that's done, insurance people takeover and deal with plates and insurance.
After insurance, at least here in Canada, the transfer of ownership is complete from Tesla to buyer. Another set of people wait you outside to put on the license plates and give you a tour to the car.
Of course, in my case, I'm already very familiar with Tesla UI and everything. So, I just told him I think I got it. The gent there made sure I had the car added to my account and app and away I go.
It's great to see that Tesla has got not just the production, but also the delivery method optimized. I remember back in 2019, when I picked up my Model 3, it was chaotic to say the least and it took over 4hrs from arrival to finish.
Today, if I discount the time that our provincial insurance (ICBC) system downtime, preventing me to finalize the purchase, I'd have been outta there in 15min.
Picked this baby up today. HW4 all around, FSD transferred from my M3 and with the updated matrix headlight too.
While there, there was another Model S Plaid delivered and at least 5 Ys.
The main thing I think it's worth mentioning in this particular thread is about my delivery experience comparing to the two previous one in 2019 and 2020 respectively.
Tesla, at least Canada, has gotten the delivery process really streamlined. Upon check-in, they take the payment check, and give you all the paperworks in a clipper binder.
One goes to inspect the car with the binder, make note on any issue and whatnot, then sign all the paperworks for transfer of ownership. Once that's done, insurance people takeover and deal with plates and insurance.
After insurance, at least here in Canada, the transfer of ownership is complete from Tesla to buyer. Another set of people wait you outside to put on the license plates and give you a tour to the car.
Of course, in my case, I'm already very familiar with Tesla UI and everything. So, I just told him I think I got it. The gent there made sure I had the car added to my account and app and away I go.
It's great to see that Tesla has got not just the production, but also the delivery method optimized. I remember back in 2019, when I picked up my Model 3, it was chaotic to say the least and it took over 4hrs from arrival to finish.
Today, if I discount the time that our provincial insurance (ICBC) system downtime, preventing me to finalize the purchase, I'd have been outta there in 15min.
Fresh UAW warning below. The next "standup" event will occur this Friday if "serious progress is not made by then".
Shawn Fain's "Standup" strategy seems smart (and I empathize with them, it wasn't fair), but I see it dragging out and then backfire.
As I understand it, the Union pays an employee $500 per week if asked to Stand. But since it's targeted and paced out like death of a thousand cuts, the amount of time they can afford to cause pain is increased dramatically (as compared to an all out strike in past times). Problem is, past profits are not a good indicator for future profits as the EV squeeze continues. So it's quite possible Auto can't pay to match expectations based on the past.
Today's "Standup" at Ford triggered an immediate 600 employee layoff at Ford's same facility. If this trend continues, I see auto riding out the losses in production while cutting out lower tech skills in parallel. But I wonder, are there sufficient replacement workers available to backfill? If so, could they eventually eliminate Union workers? This might be nearly impossible, IDK.
If workers see everyone fired with every standup event, eventually some may decide to remain seated and break the line, but only after a bloody battle. With all factory procedures well documented (ISO 9002), replacement may be possible, if not the only choice for Auto.
OTOH, should auto settle anywhere close to the current demands, they'd be doomed that much faster, would not be able to afford to increase EV research, and all jobs would be lost. This could accelerate the transition to EVs as ICE sticker price would continue to rise. Oh, this will get ugly in slow motion. I'm even hearing how the workers are blaming their problems because Auto is "wasting" money on EVs. This is so detached from reality with comments like that.
And guarantees for the Engine Dept to keep their jobs??? I'm sorry, the rest of the world doesn't work like that. NO JOB IS GUARANTEED! Especially with the automation we see coming.
Shawn Fain's "Standup" strategy seems smart (and I empathize with them, it wasn't fair), but I see it dragging out and then backfire.
As I understand it, the Union pays an employee $500 per week if asked to Stand. But since it's targeted and paced out like death of a thousand cuts, the amount of time they can afford to cause pain is increased dramatically (as compared to an all out strike in past times). Problem is, past profits are not a good indicator for future profits as the EV squeeze continues. So it's quite possible Auto can't pay to match expectations based on the past.
Today's "Standup" at Ford triggered an immediate 600 employee layoff at Ford's same facility. If this trend continues, I see auto riding out the losses in production while cutting out lower tech skills in parallel. But I wonder, are there sufficient replacement workers available to backfill? If so, could they eventually eliminate Union workers? This might be nearly impossible, IDK.
If workers see everyone fired with every standup event, eventually some may decide to remain seated and break the line, but only after a bloody battle. With all factory procedures well documented (ISO 9002), replacement may be possible, if not the only choice for Auto.
OTOH, should auto settle anywhere close to the current demands, they'd be doomed that much faster, would not be able to afford to increase EV research, and all jobs would be lost. This could accelerate the transition to EVs as ICE sticker price would continue to rise. Oh, this will get ugly in slow motion. I'm even hearing how the workers are blaming their problems because Auto is "wasting" money on EVs. This is so detached from reality with comments like that.
And guarantees for the Engine Dept to keep their jobs??? I'm sorry, the rest of the world doesn't work like that. NO JOB IS GUARANTEED! Especially with the automation we see coming.
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
A little mood music for Shawn Fain and the UAW to ponder over what they've done to legacy auto's four hungry children and the (EV) crop in the field.
Yeah, I know the Kenny Rogers version is the classic, just thought the timbre of Waylon fit the moment.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Won't this UAW stike be a welcome excuse for the big 3's quarterly numbers? Wasn't the chip shortage excuse running out of steam? The strike and it's related impact to supply chain is perfect. Now, if only the UAWs demands weren't SO ridiculous....
JupiterMan
Active Member
Does anyone know if OEMs use 24 hour shifts on their German production lines?
I'm a little surprised that this is the reason, and whether this was taken into consideration when Berlin was chosen as the location for the factory.
yes, BMW does for example in their factory in Dingolfing
Speaking of factories, this could become a major issue: forced labor in the supply chain, namely China (some ~40% of Tesla production IIRC)?
This is NOT a good situation and I suspected years ago that getting into bed with China wasn't going to end well, despite it being the world's largest auto market.
Perhaps this was a driver in yesterday's TSLA price drop.
Solutions, ideas, suggestions, anyone? (And yet another example of why NOT having a Tesla PR department was a short-sighted move.)
This is NOT a good situation and I suspected years ago that getting into bed with China wasn't going to end well, despite it being the world's largest auto market.
Perhaps this was a driver in yesterday's TSLA price drop.
Solutions, ideas, suggestions, anyone? (And yet another example of why NOT having a Tesla PR department was a short-sighted move.)
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
In certain quarters, the phantasy scenario is that UAW lands huge new contracts with the big 3, then goes on the unionize Tesla factories in the USA and brings them to their knees with labor chaos and every diminishing productivity (especially not automation!) At least, that's the Wall-E fantasy.
The reality is that only 48% of American autoworkers belong to the UAW, there are many assembly plants in so-called 'right-to-work' states where the UAW holds very small influence, and Ford will almost certainly be investing MORE in Tesla Automation in the future as the result of any temporary 'success' achieved in labor negotions by the UAQ.
In reality, they're working themselves out of jobs. The future is robotics, that means successful workers will learn how to manage robots, not how to strike (and hold an industry as hostage). Any UAW gains will be temporary.
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