Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cliff harris]

I get the impression that both Ford and GMs EV plans are to basically flounder and panic and then go to the government and demand a huge bailout so they can start taking it seriously.
SO much time has passed, and Tesla's design and production process has been so open, that the complete failure by GM/Ford to realistically compete has no other explanation. They cannot be seriously trying.
Tesla even let them have the conventional pickup truck market for ages without releasing the cybertruck, and they still cannot manage to sell anything at volume. Once CT eats into lightning sales, its even worse.
Next week will be interesting. Wall st will overreact to production numbers. Non zero chance of cybetruck announcement the same week? They canrt take much longer!

 

[Usain]

I get the impression that both Ford and GMs EV plans are to basically flounder and panic and then go to the government and demand a huge bailout so they can start taking it seriously.
SO much time has passed, and Tesla's design and production process has been so open, that the complete failure by GM/Ford to realistically compete has no other explanation. They cannot be seriously trying.
Tesla even let them have the conventional pickup truck market for ages without releasing the cybertruck, and they still cannot manage to sell anything at volume. Once CT eats into lightning sales, its even worse.
Next week will be interesting. Wall st will overreact to production numbers. Non zero chance of cybetruck announcement the same week? They canrt take much longer!

I think Ford and GM will have a tough time getting bailed out again. The IRA was supposed to be their pre-bailout. Plus they are borrowing billions from the government in order to create their battery factories. At some point even the Biden administration will start to say enough is enough.

As for Tesla letting others have the EV truck market for awhile, this has been no picnic for Ford and Rivian. It's very hard to make a profitable EV truck because a truck requires a much larger battery. I think Tesla never considered anything but 4680 for the Cybertruck. They needed to use a battery they made themselves. Otherwise, the vehicle could not be profitable. Same for the Semi.

The fact that Cybertruck and Semi are entering production means the promise of 4680 is finally being fulfilled. This is huge. The market should be rejoicing but they just don't get it.

 

[JupiterMan]

The fact that Cybertruck and Semi are entering production means the promise of 4680 is finally being fulfilled.

I thought the Semi still uses 2170 battery form factor?

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1707347784670601605

 

[Usain]

I thought the Semi still uses 2170 battery form factor?

Tesla is building 4680 lines in Nevada to support Semi production.

I believe Tesla concluded that using the 4680 is the only way they can make large vehicles at a decent profit. That's why volume production has been delayed until now.

 

[GhostSkater]

Another record, and this is pretty damn close to the 1150 miles a day theoretical maximum

Just one delivery, I bet it was just a test to see how far they could go on one day, maybe just for fun, maybe because soon we will start seeing Megachargers in places other than depots and Pepsi might start doing it's multiday runs with a Semi

 

[Stretch2727]

I get the impression that both Ford and GMs EV plans are to basically flounder and panic and then go to the government and demand a huge bailout so they can start taking it seriously.
SO much time has passed, and Tesla's design and production process has been so open, that the complete failure by GM/Ford to realistically compete has no other explanation. They cannot be seriously trying.
Tesla even let them have the conventional pickup truck market for ages without releasing the cybertruck, and they still cannot manage to sell anything at volume. Once CT eats into lightning sales, its even worse.
Next week will be interesting. Wall st will overreact to production numbers. Non zero chance of cybetruck announcement the same week? They canrt take much longer!

I believe they are actually trying to the best of their current abilities. . No one wants to deliberately put themselves in a bailout situation. I honestly doubt they will get much help with a domestic rival (Tesla) that is the envy of the automotive world.

Having worked for Ford for 10 years I think they don't have the talent. All the real engineering is at the suppliers. I worked mostly in plants but I used call the employees in Detroit "metal benders". Lot's of good guys that knew how to bend metal, mold plastics and package everything into the car but not much else as far as skills. This is essentially what they became as they outsourced what they thought would always remain commodities. This is how industries evolve and this is what they became.

If you watch one of the Jim Farley interviews where he talks about 100's of electronic modules in the car, with 10's of suppliers and all with different software that don't talk to each other, I believe he really understands the problem. The challenge is now developing an organization to bring this all in house again and do it well. Buying a few key suppliers may help but then you have the challenge of integrating them which could lead to lots of other organizational issues. The integration Tesla has done here is a huge competitive advantage far beyond the EV part of the puzzle as this should have been done with ICE vehicles long ago.

They did not take the threat seriously 10 years ago, now its too late and I am not sure any amount of money could fix it.

 

[AndrewZ]

I think Ford and GM will have a tough time getting bailed out again. The IRA was supposed to be their pre-bailout. Plus they are borrowing billions from the government in order to create their battery factories. At some point even the Biden administration will start to say enough is enough.

As for Tesla letting others have the EV truck market for awhile, this has been no picnic for Ford and Rivian. It's very hard to make a profitable EV truck because a truck requires a much larger battery. I think Tesla never considered anything but 4680 for the Cybertruck. They needed to use a battery they made themselves. Otherwise, the vehicle could not be profitable. Same for the Semi.

The fact that Cybertruck and Semi are entering production means the promise of 4680 is finally being fulfilled. This is huge. The market should be rejoicing but they just don't get it.

I don't think governments will be letting their domestic vehicle manufacturing fail while we're in the middle of the energy transition and globalization is unwinding, this is not a time where we'll be getting all our cars from China. The EVs will be made domestically, they need to be made domestically, and we also need to get our battery material sourcing ramped up in Western/Euro countries to reduce dependence on countries like China. The UAW knows this, the big car makers know this, I think they're playing hardball making big EV commitments and then using them for leverage.

Either someone will pony up the $$$ or it will put the lofty climate / energy transition goals at risk. New light vehicle sales are supposed to be all EV by 2030-2035.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1707393157527163238

Unbelievable admission.
I suppose the new target being the maximising of area under the happiness curve is a little too much to expect...

 

[GOVA]

...

Having worked for Ford for 10 years I think they don't have the talent. All the real engineering is at the suppliers. I worked mostly in plants but I used call the employees in Detroit "metal benders". Lot's of good guys that knew how to bend metal, mold plastics and package everything into the car but not much else as far as skills. This is essentially what they became as they outsourced what they thought would always remain commodities. This is how industries evolve and this is what they became.
...

They did not take the threat seriously 10 years ago, now its too late and I am not sure any amount of money could fix it.

Informative writeup. I think that "don't have the talent" applies especially to newer technologies. Moreover, this is the case for most legacy companies. The new wave of smart software and hardware engineers did not go to work for automobile manufacturers really. They went to work for the newly emerging techs and companies.

This just shows that Tesla is not to be regarded as auto manufacturing company which outsources pretty much all but metal bending and plastic molding and puts it together later. Many still have no clue, but Tesla and all Elon's endeavors have advanced humanity by 100 years in 10.

 

[scaesare]

New Semi daily distance record, and all 3 did over 700 miles on day 10

https://results-2023.runonless.com/truck/?day=10&depot=pepsico&truck=pepsi_tesla1&units=imperial

View attachment 975969

Looks like it used about 236.5% of a full charge to do so. That's about 91% of the rated 500 mile range.

Looks like they were averaging 60+ MPH for the trip, so probably not bad...

 

[FreqFlyer]

Looks like it used about 236.5% of a full charge to do so. That's about 91% of the rated 500 mile range.

Looks like they were averaging 60+ MPH for the trip, so probably not bad...

How about this Pepsi, start at San Antonio and drive 70-75 mph to Dallas on I-35 and see what the battery usage is? Pepsi could even take 130 around Austin do a photo op past the Tesla factory heading north. The South wind would even be beneficial. Or San Antonio to El Paso on I-10 where its posted 80 mph.

I fear these trucks will be like the 65 mph governed JB Hunts and Schnieders. Moving Chicanes or road blocks on the interstate.

 

[AudubonB]

Another record, and this is pretty damn close to the 1150 miles a day theoretical maximum

Just one delivery, I bet it was just a test to see how far they could go on one day, maybe just for fun, maybe because soon we will start seeing Megachargers in places other than depots and Pepsi might start doing it's multiday runs with a Semi

View attachment 977838

Now I am impressed. Although my 1K days are blessedly now gone, and they were of course under much different circumstances, it is stunning that a battery-driven 80,000 lb-er can hit that mark. Note that two of the three charge periods were up only to the 50% level, too - wow.

When I did ultras, that was with me as sole human* occupant in an F-250 with 140 gallons** of diesel capacity, a fair amount of thermos'd coffee and was traversing those Alaskan, mid-Canadian and north-central US states that have about as much traffic as a prayer room in a whorehouse.

* Plus some number of malamutes.
** Illegal, I know.

I showed this to Jenny and she commented "Just imagine (us) pulling in to sleep at a truck stop and being surrounded only by those trucks. None of that diesel roar as the tractors idle all night long, plus the ramp up as they get ready to leave in their 4:40 morning."

 

[MartinAustin]

Will the Q3 numbers announcement be on Monday morning?

 

[DarthPierce]

How about this Pepsi, start at San Antonio and drive 70-75 mph to Dallas on I-35 and see what the battery usage is? Pepsi could even take 130 around Austin do a photo op past the Tesla factory heading north. The South wind would even be beneficial. Or San Antonio to El Paso on I-10 where its posted 80 mph.

I fear these trucks will be like the 65 mph governed JB Hunts and Schnieders. Moving Chicanes or road blocks on the interstate.

At least they wont be doing 25-30 up a Colorado pass

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Will the Q3 numbers announcement be on Monday morning?

 

[MP3Mike]

How about this Pepsi, start at San Antonio and drive 70-75 mph to Dallas on I-35 and see what the battery usage is? Pepsi could even take 130 around Austin do a photo op past the Tesla factory heading north. The South wind would even be beneficial. Or San Antonio to El Paso on I-10 where its posted 80 mph.

I don't think the charging infrastructure exists to support that. And Pepsi isn't driving the trucks just to drive them. They are actually using them to move beverages around. (But it seems like they don't make it more than ~400 miles away from home base.)

I fear these trucks will be like the 65 mph governed JB Hunts and Schnieders. Moving Chicanes or road blocks on the interstate.

They aren't limited to 65 MPH. The Run on Less data shows them going as fast as 70 MPH. (And that is in a state where the speed limit for trucks is 55 MPH.) But obviously the faster you go the more often you will need to charge.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1707422707086938610

 

[Bobfitz1]

You're indeed correct...but the folks on the other side of the argument comparing lithium to gas might be better convinced (if it's possible to convince them) just comparing mining to mining, or weights to weights, even if the items aren't exactly analagous. The real trouble is that they literally have no idea about the current state of things in terms of the mining or mass of stuff the ICE economy requires.

For example:

Comparing an entire lithium ion battery vs gasoline:
- That battery weighs about 1000 lbs (very round number estimate). People have a feel for what 1000 lbs is, and they think it is a lot.
- Well, how much gasoline does your car burn? Most people literally never see the gasoline that goes into the car, or where it goes, and have no idea how much it actually is. Make them realize the numbers and MAYBE they'll make a connection. My first line on this: the Tesla's battery is warrantied for 120,000 miles (or whatever it is for your car), and is expected to last much much longer. But, sticking just with that 120,000 mile warranty -- how much gasoline does it take to go that far? If their car gets 30mpg, then it takes 4,000 gallons of gas to go 120,000 miles. 4,000 gallons of gas would weigh about 24,000 pounds...and it just gets burned up and sent into the air as ~75,000 pounds of CO2, plus other worse things. Hey Mr. EV_Hater: are you really comparing a recycleable 1000lb battery to the 24,000 lbs of gasoline your car is going to burn up to go 120,000 miles?

Great post! There is a killer EV vs ICE education ad based on this post just waiting to be created by some forward looking company and broadcast during a Super Bowl.

 

[Skryll]

So much for the competition is coming….. isn’t GM’s EV sales mostly the Bolt which it had said earlier in the year they were discontinuing it?

I see a lot of Hyundai Ioniq and Kia EV in California lately...