Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

Revenue yes, profit ...

Here is chargepoint: P&L

This is the very early growth stage of the L2 industry. We still have less than 1% of the US fleet electrified. ChargePoint is a lot more concerned with revenue and market share than they are with profit right now. And given this phase in the market, the revenue number looks quite nice.

One of ChargePoint's problems is that their public L2 chargers are too expensive to build and maintain. Tesla is way ahead with a simpler design that doesn't require a screen and an NFC reader.

And J1772 plugs break a lot more easily than NACS. ChargePoint will have a lot of work to do redesigning their chargers and figuring out how to manufacture and deploy them. From what I've read, it sounds like ChargePoint wants to do a universal charger like Tesla. But there is no announcement yet.

And all that is before we talk about the big headache facing all these charging companies in the US. Their DC charging business is about to get decimated as soon as the Supercharger adapters start shipping. Turmoil in DC charging is not going to help their L2 business. I think ChargePoint is better positioned than the other big players because they have concentrated more on L2. But the Supercharger competition is going to hurt them as well.

Somebody is going to make a lot of money from L2 networking in the US. It's Tesla's market if they want it.

 

[Entropy]

Today’s P&D numbers weren’t too bad. Was disappointed that inventory wasn‘t drawn down more, but as others have noted there is a large build up of highland 3s awaiting permission to sell in China AND on ships heading to Europe. If Tesla was allowed to deliver Highland in China during September the delivery number would likely have been tens of thousands of units higher (450k+) and inventory drawdown would have been more like 20k+ instead of just 5k.

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I do wonder what model 3 sales are like in North America at present where the old non-highland model is the only option for buyers.

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Tesla today updated its annual vehicle guidance

Previous: 1.8 million to “maybe 2 million”
Current: “around 1.8 million”

(Self inflicted wound on Elons part there with his offhand maybe 2 million number)

This means Q4 will be a record number of 475,926 to hit the 1.8m target. This should be a lock, presuming there are no unexpected hiccups.

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The S&X numbers were not good, especially given the massive price cuts.

Fair to question what has happened to demand at the high end amongst more wealthy EV buyers. I think there is an answer that is perhaps obvious given the avalanche of anecdotes by many people (but we cant mention that reason on this forum).

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October 18th is Q3 earnings. Not long to wait.

In regards to S & X numbers, I suspect that the price cuts impacts will be felt in Q4. Two of my friends ordered right after the price cuts (ultra red model X -both) and they expect delivery in late Oct early Nov.

 

[SmokyPeat]

You try to weigh electricity... I double dare ya ;-)

I would, but my bathroom scales aren't quite sensitive enough. Then again, I struggle to measure the speed of gravitational waves, but if Einstein says they travel at the speed of light.... that's good enough for me!

 

[Usain]

Model Y RWD listed now in the US @ $43,990

Hmm. This could be a good sign or a bad sign.

Assuming this is still a 4680 vehicle, it might mean Tesla is confident enough in their 4680 cell production to share them between Model Y and Cybertruck.

Or it could mean that Cybertruck has hit a snag and won't be ramping production any time soon.

 

[Tronguy]

I would, but my bathroom scales aren't quite sensitive enough. Then again, I struggle to measure the speed of gravitational waves, but if Einstein says they travel at the speed of light.... that's good enough for me!

All right, guys. This is easy. E = m*c^2. A Model 3 battery pack is 75 kW-hr. That's good old energy. To get it into SI units, we have 3.6 MJ/kW-hr.

Speed-o-light is 3e8 m/s.

So, the amount of energy in a M3 battery pack is 75 * 3.6e6 = 270 MJ.

Then, m = E/(c*c) = 270e6/(3e8*3e8) = 3e-9 kg. Or, putting it into grams, we have 3e-6 g. Six micrograms of electrons for a M3 battery pack.

Now, where it might get mildly interesting is considering the masses of the individual electrons. A free-floating electron has mass, sure, but when it gets tucked into a close orbital around the nucleus of some atom or other energy gets radiated off and the mass of the single electron would thereby decrease.

But in this case it's electrons flowing in or out; and the energy state of individual electrons is whatever-they-are; the total increase in mass goes right back to Einstein. As I said, simple.

Funny thing, though: While the mass is negligible compared to the mass of the car or semi, it is, actually, measurable. There are commercial microgram scales all over. (Although a single flake of paint masses that much...)
--
Added: And the SO found the hole in the argument, such as it is: The fuel in a ICE-based semi might weigh a literal ton; but the batteries in a BEV-based semi do weigh, well a lot.

On the other hand: the ICE motor and transmission probably weigh a lot more than the motors and what passes for a transmission in a BEV-based semi..

 

[mongo]

Hmm. This could be a good sign or a bad sign.

Assuming this is still a 4680 vehicle, it might mean Tesla is confident enough in their 4680 cell production to share them between Model Y and Cybertruck.

Or it could mean that Cybertruck has hit a snag and won't be ramping production any time soon.

Or the initial assumption is wrong and it's LFP...

 

[willow_hiller]

Or the initial assumption is wrong and it's LFP...

It must either be LFP, or have a smaller 4680 pack than the original Model Y Standard AWD.

The Model Y Standard AWD had an EPA range of 279 miles. This new RWD has 260 miles. Generally the efficiency and range go up when the second motor is removed.

And 260 miles would probably be a reasonable range for a Model Y that shares the same LFP pack as the 272 mile range Model 3 RWD.

 

[GhostSkater]

In regards to S & X numbers, I suspect that the price cuts impacts will be felt in Q4. Two of my friends ordered right after the price cuts (ultra red model X -both) and they expect delivery in late Oct early Nov.

And let's be honest, even with the price cuts, still a expensive vehicle, specially at the current times, doesn't help being the best bang for your buck if people don't have the buck

 

[Marc_K_inNJ]

Hmm. This could be a good sign or a bad sign.

Assuming this is still a 4680 vehicle, it might mean Tesla is confident enough in their 4680 cell production to share them between Model Y and Cybertruck.

Or it could mean that Cybertruck has hit a snag and won't be ramping production any time soon.

I don’t know why you are assuming “this is still a 4680 vehicle “
The 4680 Austin Model Y was an AWD vehicle not RWD…
I think this is the first time we are seeing a RWD Y in the US

 

[mongo]

I don’t know why you are assuming “this is still a 4680 vehicle “
The 4680 Austin Model Y was an AWD vehicle not RWD…
I think this is the first time we are seeing a RWD Y in the US

Yep, it was previous seen in Canada (and was LFP).

 

[Drumheller]

Just picked one up as well. $65 in my area for those wondering

For those looking, they are currently only available in Washington state per the inventory system in my local store. Congrats to those of you that can find one .


As for the cybertruck, it's now Q4 and last communication from Tesla was that first deliveries would be in Q3. I understand schedules change, but how about some communication? It's not that hard to get a message out.

 

[MC3OZ]

I don’t know why you are assuming “this is still a 4680 vehicle “
The 4680 Austin Model Y was an AWD vehicle not RWD…
I think this is the first time we are seeing a RWD Y in the US

This is what I was trying to suggest earlier, the shutdown allows Austin to make more Model Ys in Q4

Making a cheaper RWD model is a good fit with higher production volumes.

IMO Austin can probably now make more 4680 cells than will be needed for the initial states of the CT ramp.

But I don't expect the RWD Model Y to have 4680 cells, 4680 production might not yet be at levels that will support that..

The only thing that surprised me about Q3 results is Tesla only reduced inventory by around 5,000 vehicles

I expect Q4 deliveries will achieve the 1.8 million guidance and more Model Ys form Austin will be part of that..

 

[Artful Dodger]

FYI -

2022 Deliveries:

1,313,851

2023 1st 3 Q's:

1,324,074

Indeed that's very impressive, a nomical 33% increase in deliveries vs the previous year. Going forward, if Tesla delivers just 476K vehicles in Q4, that locks in 37% YoY growth in deliveries (TE is all gravy; FSD is the buffet).

Cheers to the Cool Cats!

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's exactly right. The bigger story is that Elon has now reluctantly accepted the "$25k car" as largely customer owned.

Elon has done no such thing. All the Isaacson book revealed is that Model 2 and Robotaxi will be built on the same line, giving Tesla the flexibility to vary the mix of customer cars (Model 2) and Robotaxis (fleet owned).

As I said here before, Tesla must sell some portion of this production to earn money to buy their company-owned cars intended for the Tesla Network. The exact proportion of production Telsa can afford to buy (while self funding) is related to the gross margin for the Gen 3 car: for example, if g.m. is 30% then Tesla can buy 3 cars out of every 10 Gen 3 cars produced. If g.m. is 50% then they can buy half. Obviously the 'take-rate' on FSD will be crucial for margins.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looks like Troy's streak of accurate delivery estimates continues. Not sure why some here get so hung up on the adjustments he makes throughout the quarter/s. Every good analyst does that.

What are you talking about? His estimate ranked in the bottom third of Retail analysts like himself. Not a particularly close result.

James Stephenson nailed it with his 435,000 deliveries estimate, and he's sensible/educated enough not to publish an estimate to less than 1,000 vehicles precision (which is false precision).

See Implied Precision Calculator | calculator.academy

 

[SmokyPeat]

What are you talking about? His estimate ranked in the bottom third of Retail analysts like himself. Not a particularly close result.

James Stephenson nailed it with his 435,000 deliveries estimate, and he's sensible/educated enough not to publish an estimate to less than 1,000 vehicles precision (which is false precision).

See Implied Precision Calculator | calculator.academy

Meh, he was within a couple of percentage points. Much closer than most uber bullish armchair analysts here, I suspect.

Yeah, Stephenson nailed it- good on him. I don't really follow James or many Tesla YouTubers besides Rob Maurer these days. Even been trimming back on Rob. There is life outside Tesla after all.

 

[cab]

This is what I was trying to suggest earlier, the shutdown allows Austin to make more Model Ys in Q4

Making a cheaper RWD model is a good fit with higher production volumes.

IMO Austin can probably now make more 4680 cells than will be needed for the initial states of the CT ramp.

But I don't expect the RWD Model Y to have 4680 cells, 4680 production might not yet be at levels that will support that..

The only thing that surprised me about Q3 results is Tesla only reduced inventory by around 5,000 vehicles

I expect Q4 deliveries will achieve the 1.8 million guidance and more Model Ys form Austin will be part of that..

Assuming it is coming out of Texas, this would likely explain the need for crash testing. It is reasonably cheap at $43,990, but assuming it will qualify for the full rebate heading into next year, that brings it down to around $36,490. This is especially significant come January when Tesla will undoubtedly "accept assignment" for the $7500 rebate up front making it even easier for folks to afford (interest rates not withstanding). Average selling prices will fall, but hopefully volumes will spike...heck, the "teaser" low end model could easily result in people upselling to the long range, etc. I like this move as I can see base Model 3 RWD folks also "stepping up" to this. Of course if the Model 3 RWD rebate drops to $3750, it suddenly becomes a lot less compelling than the MYLR (with a full rebate).

 

[SPadival]

A fantastic video from Jay Leno about the Semi - and talks with Franz and Dan on how they made this beast.

But when are they going to ramp up 4680 production and start Semi production?

 

[dhanson865]

Hmm. This could be a good sign or a bad sign.

Assuming this is still a 4680 vehicle, it might mean Tesla is confident enough in their 4680 cell production to share them between Model Y and Cybertruck.

Or it could mean that Cybertruck has hit a snag and won't be ramping production any time soon.

Could it be a 3rd bin for 4680?

If they switch all to production of "cyber cells" then you have

* Good cells
* discards

If you have marginal cells could any be good enough for a SR RWD Model Y but not good enough for Cybertruck? If so you could bin them as

* Cyber Cells
* less than Cyber Cells (for use in Model Y)
* discards.

 

[dhanson865]

I don’t know why you are assuming “this is still a 4680 vehicle “
The 4680 Austin Model Y was an AWD vehicle not RWD…
I think this is the first time we are seeing a RWD Y in the US

Not the first time in the US. It existed in early 2021 in the US.