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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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As a "Brit" there is no Tesla model to suit me anymore, it's a shame. Doesn't look like we are ever going to get the Roadster in RHD form, which is what I'd really want, or the current S as a RHD either. This is really annoying! I'm just not into the other "everyman" family 3/Y models either, so I'm going traitor and I've ordered one of these for delivery next year.

I'll not be selling any more TSLA though, until we're over at least $500!

Don't all hate me too much will you.

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Damn, that’s beautiful, will it be sold outside the UK?
 
How many RCs are running around? I saw one (finally!) this morning at my hotel in Truckee. Pretty neat in person.
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Did you all have to file a claim back then?
Unfortunately, yes.


Keep in mind that you had to have purchased within the 28 hours after the "funding secured" tweet to be eligible to participate. Then, you needed to either hold for the whole 28 hours or sell at a loss during that period.

And to Soulpedl, you figured correctly, they wouldn't have distributed if damages less than $10.
 
Funding Secured!

Just got a check in the mail for my "share of the Fair Fund established by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in Elon Musk, Civil Action No. 1:18-cv-8865-(LJL) and Tesla, Inc., Civil Action No. 1:18-cv-8947-(LJL)."

I hadn't heard a peep about this since I put in my claim over a year ago. Suddenly, a check!

Of the amount that I lost that was eligible for a claim, I'm recovering about half. I lost a bunch more that wasn't eligible for a claim because rather than buying shares I traded some shares for calls. Seemed like a good idea at the time.:oops:

My post from last June describing how this was supposed to work is #344,744. It's been only five years or so since the SEC screwed us over. And TSLA is up about 10x. Glad to get something back. And, of course, I keep in mind that if things went the way Elon expected at the time, we'd all be out of the company's stock because it would be private.

Any suggestions on how to put this $34,677.94 to use? I'm tempted to try the long shot -- 10 Jan 2026, 510 calls. Or I could just get about 136 shares. Or I could earmark it for buying an Optimus when it finally appears in a few years?
Preface: I'm appreciative for recovery checks, too, (one each for a taxable and a retirement account), but for
a total amount of $978.78 I clearly don't play in the same league!

Some striking things about this SEC settlement claim: one is that you didn't have to declare an actual loss from a TSLA stock trade during the claim period. The 150 shares I bought on an impulsive lark after the tweet just added to existing positions which I've kept HODL to this day -- the 15:1 split just makes it all nicer.

The "loss" is really the SEC view that Musk's speaking "out-of-turn" (at least not waiting for after-hours and before filing under Regulation FD) was worth the difference in what a long paid vs what the price was the second before the tweet (or $X - $356.67 [split-adjusted] per share). Yet for the more involved "funding secured" trial, sad sack witnesses were paraded who actually panic sold, recorded losses, and may
never have since re-invested.

Further, getting timestamps to the second on TSLA trades took a bit of work, since brokerage confirmations
(at least for Schwab, in my case) don't usually have that fine-grained info.

Lastly, I'm surprised at the percentage payout (51 cents on the dollar for claims). For previous run-ins
I've had (say for biotech stocks which actually went down the tube), I've only come to expect getting
back 2-5% on the dollar, claimants getting piddly checks while the class-action lawyers clean up.

The only recovery I've had that was higher (80%+ on the dollar for a loss) was once holding stock in
Martha Stewart Inc. The relatively high payout there was due to criminal liability which came out of
her hide (I think somewhat unfairly) in more ways than one.
 
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Just out of curiosity: on a scale of 1 to 10, how confident are you in what you just wrote ? Can you provide one link to back it up ? The link will help us reach your level of enlightenment
Sorry it took so long to get back to you.

On a scale of 1 to 10, it's a 10. Background: Physics 149, 151, 152, and 269. (That's a refresher Physics for them's that's been away from it for a while; then the two standard Physics for engineering majors that more-or-less start with Newton and work their way up some of the relativity equations involving time dilation; and the Physics that gets into serious elecromagnetics with Maxwell's equations. Throw into that a couple of courses in chemistry (and the labs), and the dedicated electromagnetics courses in "Basic" and "Antenna Theory" and, well, one gets a pretty good appreciation for How It All Hangs Together. Including the quantum electronics that one runs into in chemistry these days, what with orbitals and all. Not to mention that, as a EE, one typically gets into deep dives into how, say, semiconductors actually work and why it's stated, for example, that ceramic capacitors are made out of ferroelectric insulators.

Add to that some, what is it, some 40 years of actually working in the field on some pretty hairy stuff..

But, consider this, for example: A photon hits an atom. If the atom's not ionized (and maybe even if it is), some electron(s) or others in the shell(s) around the nucleus are going to jump up a level or three; then, after a time, emit a photon and jump back down. Everything from why, say, a red-colored object looks red to the the inner workings of atomic clocks work on this basis, not to mention biological systems (that means you) all over.

Trick is: Photons may travel at Ye Speed Of Light, but they very definitely have mass. Energy of a photon is h*f, where h is Plank's constant, f is the frequency in Hertz. Then, the mass of the photon, by Einstein, is m(rel) = E/(c*c), where c is speed o'light.

So, when that atom gets hit by the initial photon, it goes from its base mass to the base mass + the photon mass. It may stay in that state for from near-zero time to forever; come the time it emits a photon, that photon carries away mass.

But chemical reactions are all about moving from one energy state to another; in a higher energy state, an individual molecule (or a collection of them) has absorbed energy and gained mass; in fact, all chemistry is based upon the idea that one is trading quanta of energy around via photons and, yup, all those photons have mass.

One sees this, "Photons carry mass around" with what are termed "Solar sails". Spread out a thin, reflective surface face-on to something bright, like the sun; photons bounce right off, and the momentum (that is, PhotonMass*SpeedOfLight) of the photons doing this get transferred to the solar sail, which then sails off that-a-way. There's been a number of NASA funded experiments with this since, while the acceleration is low, It Doesn't Let Up. And one doesn't have to carry fuel around to change vector.

Thing is, though, the mass changes are ridiculously tiny compared to the energies absorbed and given off by chemical reactions, so it's kind of excusable that Nobody Noticed What Was Going On until Einstein and his compatriots finally nailed it in the 1910's or so. And then all the mysteries of How The Heck That Flaming Ball of Gas In the Sky Got So Old If It Was "Just" a Chemical Reaction kind of got laid bare, and the conversion of the mass of four hydrogen atoms (and their electrons) into the mass of one helium atom and its two protons, two neutrons, and pair of electrons provided the answer.

That's enough on this for one day, and sorry that it's in the Investment Forum. I mean, people were joking around about the weight variation of a charged battery vs. an uncharged one with respect to an ICE semi's weight of fuel in its tank, and acting like figuring out the mass variation of the BEV version was some inscrutable problem.. when, as it happens, it's not an inscrutable problem, it's pretty simple, if one knows the amount of energy involved. It's not every day one can pull out E=mc^2 and solve an automotive problem. Which is pretty funny, when one thinks about it.
 
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I'd fully expect there to be record deliveries in Q4, question is what will be required to achieve that in terms of pricing power. But the units will move, I have little doubt of that.

If interest rates don't come down next year, what will be required to move 2.3-2.4million vehicles? I genuinely don't know how people expect this to go.
I'm optimistic about 2024 YoY growth due to:
Cybertruck production
Factory upgrades that diminished 3rd quarter P&D now complete
Federal tax credit will become POS(point of sale). Don't forget, the vast majority of consumers (have to)finance and are monthly payment shoppers. IMO, this will make Tesla appear significantly more affordable for the majority(paycheck to paycheck people)
 
I'm optimistic about 2024 YoY growth due to:
Cybertruck production
Factory upgrades that diminished 3rd quarter P&D now complete

I remain dubious this provides 600k more vehicles produced in 2024 though, regardless of the question of said cars having eager buyers.


Federal tax credit will become POS(point of sale). Don't forget, the vast majority of consumers (have to)finance and are monthly payment shoppers. IMO, this will make Tesla appear significantly more affordable for the majority(paycheck to paycheck people)

Federal tax credit likely gets cut in half for the most affordable trims of 3 and Y due to higher sourcing requirements on batteries don't forget- Tesla calls this out on their own order pages now.

Maybe that turns into a wash (half credit but up front is just as good with high rates), maybe it doesn't, but I don't know it's a huge catalyst on balance for what are likely the highest volume vehicles being moved, and would continue to be so if we're expanding TAM another 50% (minus CT orders I guess).... I suppose it's possible we get another price drop to offset the credit loss, but I don't love that for margins either esp if that's where much of the new sales volume comes from.
 
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Brits longing for an S or roadster should think outside the box: change the roads. Has there ever been a better reason?

I should have kept this for a red day but my memory is bad so here it is. I’m still waiting for the terrible music, but imagine having invested in Workhorse in Februari 2021 at $40 and hodling it at almost $0.40.
What, you think you're alone?
That $7K I'll likely never see again is what I mumble to myself when well meaning but unasked advice touting diversifying comes from the mouth of babes.
Friggin' DeJoy!
 
I'm optimistic about 2024 YoY growth due to:
Cybertruck production
Factory upgrades that diminished 3rd quarter P&D now complete
Federal tax credit will become POS(point of sale). Don't forget, the vast majority of consumers (have to)finance and are monthly payment shoppers. IMO, this will make Tesla appear significantly more affordable for the majority(paycheck to paycheck people)
I'm optimistic too. I think we can also add that in 2024 we are likely to see:
  • FSD gain buzz as it starts to get really, really good. Hands-free too!
  • Megapack production ramp (double?) in Lathrop
  • Megapack production in China
  • Optimus start to do useful work
  • Introduction of Gen 3 vehicle
  • Wider rollout of L2 network
  • Elon stops saying stupid stuff on X (Just kidding. Ain't gonna happen.)