Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Model Y is the best selling car in Belgium in 2023 so far: Surprise : la voiture la plus populaire en Belgique n'est pas celle qu'on croit... - FLEET.be

Driven by company car sales (68% of all new cars in Belgium are company cars). Since july company cars need to be electric in order to be tax deductible.

I love you guys. And your waffles!

 

[FreqFlyer]

I don't see a monopoly, you see a monopoly? Because I don't see a monopoly

Says the Tesla stock holder…………bwaaaahaaaaa!!!!!!

 

[RubberToe]

GM to delay all-electric truck production at Michigan plant until late 2025

GM will delay production of all-electric trucks at a Michigan plant by at least a year to "better manage capital investments" and implement other improvements.

www.cnbc.com

DETROIT – General Motors said Tuesday it is delaying production of all-electric trucks at a Michigan plant by at least a year to “better manage capital investments” and implement improvements in an effort to make the new EVs more profitable.

GM now plans to begin construction of its next-generation EVs at Orion Assembly in suburban Detroit by late-2025, instead of next year. The factory currently produces the Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV, which GM will cease producing at the end of this year.

This speaks for itself...

 

[Todd Burch]

I’m mostly annoyed the name was changed to NACS. I feel everyone should have to live with the embarrassment of being unadulteratedly wrong, laughing, mocking Tesla from the start. Too easy for people to conveniently *forget* it’s Tesla’s standard. But that’s just me.

In all seriousness, I think Tesla needs to get more out of this deal. Elon said something about aiming for a 20% margin on Superchargers I think. With the trouble Tesla and us investors have gone through, I'd like to see them goose that to 25-30%. Elon has my investment to look out for, after all .

 

[Tronguy]

In all seriousness, I think Tesla needs to get more out of this deal. Elon said something about aiming for a 20% margin on Superchargers I think. With the trouble Tesla and us investors have gone through, I'd like to see them goose that to 25-30%. Elon has my investment to look out for, after all .

Um. What with all the newbies lining up for the Oklahoma Land Rush Charge towards the Tesla Charging Network, having cash to build Even More Supercharges, faster, would be a good idea. So we don't end up with ridiculously long lines at overcrowded SCs.

This "margin" of which you speak. Is this money before or after building more Superchargers?

 

[traxila]

Figure's humanoid is already walking and performing autonomous tasks

After just 12 months of development, Figure has released video footage of its humanoid robot walking – and it's looking pretty sprightly compared to its commercial competition. It's our first look at a prototype that should be doing useful work within months.

newatlas.com

The gait does seem better than what Tesla has managed so far, but I have no idea as to the rest.

 

[hobbes]

Collection of earnings estimates (non GAAP adj EPS):

JamesCat: $0.70
Gary Black: $0.72
DarkandStormy: $0.73
Wall Street Consensus: $0.74
MattchasmMatt: $0.81

Funny, the retail estimates average to exactly the WS number..

Still waiting for Troy, says is going to publically post his estimate today. Rob Maurer doing an earnings preview in today´s epsiode.
Has anyone seen the company compiled estimates from analysts, when does that usually come out and where?

Update (with Troy and lower WS consensus now below all estimates, making beat more likely)

Wall Street Consensus: $0.70 according to yahoo
JamesCat: $0.70
TroyTeslike: $0.71
Gary Black: $0.72
DarkandStormy: $0.73
MattchasmMatt: $0.81

 

[NicoV]

[i presume you meant Dec 2025 LEAPS were introduced in Mar or April of 2023?]

Yes, I just checked and the historical quotes go back to the start of april 2023.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Update (with Troy and lower WS consensus now below all estimates, making beat more likely)

Wall Street Consensus: $0.70 according to yahoo
JamesCat: $0.70
TroyTeslike: $0.71
Gary Black: $0.72
DarkandStormy: $0.73
MattchasmMatt: $0.81

Don't you worry, WS consensus will move the goal posts tomorrow.

 

[enslaved robot]

I used to be LEAP-curious. Now I'm convinced that the Market can remain unmoveable longer than you can LEAP (what is it, ~30-mths max?) -- h/t @NicoV

My 9 280 contracts for Jan 25 are in full agreement with you.

 

[elasalle]

Just got update saying "free one year premium internet subscription expired" for vehicle purchased in Dec.

Looks like more and more customers will start having to enroll for monthly, annual subscription plans ... so another revenue stream, but will likely go unnoticed for a while ...
..add to insurance, SuperCharger & Services ... and did they say app store ...

 

[dhanson865]

Saw this informative post on reddit

[–]raptorman556

"That brings the list of NACS adopters (with their EV market share through the first 9 months of this year) to:

• Tesla - 56.5%
• Hyundai-Kia - 7.8%
• GM - 6.4%
• Ford - 5.3%
• Rivian - 4.2%
• BMW Group - 3.8%
• Mercedes - 3.4%
• Nissan - 1.8%
• Volvo - 1.3%
• Polestar - 1.0%
• Fisker - 0.1%
• Honda - 0%
• Jaguar - 0.0%

This group made up more than 91% of EV sales so far this year."

"The list of NACS hold-outs is:

• VW Group - 5.7%
• Toyota Group - 1.0%
• Lucid - 0.5%
• Stellantis - 0%
• Subaru - 0.7%
• Mitsubishi - 0%
• Mazda - 0.0%
• VinFast - 0.2%

VW is the only significant player left in the hold-out group. It seems like just a matter of time until the remainder switch. Some of them are likely in no rush since they don't sell any BEVs yet."

 

[Words of HABIT]

BMW Adopts NACS.

Holdouts: Toyota, VW, Mazda, Stellantis, Lucid

BMW of North America Expands Electric Vehicle Charging Options for Customers in the U.S. and Canada with Access to Tesla Supercharger Network.

Woodcliff Lake, NJ – October 17, 2023…. In a continued effort to provide the best possible electric vehicle charging experience for its customers, BMW of North America and Rolls-Royce Motor Cars NA announced today that drivers of BMW, MINI and Rolls-Royce Combined Charging System (CCS) battery...

www.press.bmwgroup.com

Holdouts also include Volkswagen. The Volkswagen that plead guilty to conspiracy to cheat Emissions tests and fined billions including $2B that went towards Electrify America chargers. When Volkswagen capitulates and joins NACS it will be poetic justice.

So we have by volume, the two largest auto makers in the World (Toyota and Volkswagen) that are holdouts for NACS. Tesla can reach their 20M unit sales goal by 2030 by only displacing both of them.

 

[ZeApelido]

VinFast - 0.2%

The only one that matters.

 

[Tim S]

Just got update saying "free one year premium internet subscription expired" for vehicle purchased in Dec.

Looks like more and more customers will start having to enroll for monthly, annual subscription plans ... so another revenue stream, but will likely go unnoticed for a while ...
..add to insurance, SuperCharger & Services ... and did they say app store ...

My Model 3 purchased 3 weeks ago only came with 30 days free Premium Connectivity. I already renewed for the first year for $100.

 

[Usain]

The only one that matters.

VinFast might matter if they ever get their US factory up and running.

 

[Fred42]

VinFast might matter if they ever get their US factory up and running.

just a drop of water in the EV market frying pan

 

[Bet TSLA]

Cybertruck will reinforce the image of Tesla as a company that does things nobody else can do.

For a stock like TSLA, this not only matters, it's ultimately all that matters.

Couldn't disagree more. How Tesla is perceived is almost entirely irrelevant in the long run. What Tesla does is precisely what matters. Ultimately. Both company and stock. What you have written is profoundly wrong.

 

[Krugerrand]

In all seriousness, I think Tesla needs to get more out of this deal. Elon said something about aiming for a 20% margin on Superchargers I think. With the trouble Tesla and us investors have gone through, I'd like to see them goose that to 25-30%. Elon has my investment to look out for, after all .

I’d be happier if the person/people who refused to make Tesla’s charging standard standard - back when Tesla lobbied to have it as the standard and were turned down - were named and publicly flogged; for starters.

I think is was back around 2013 that Tesla told us they were denied, so at least an entire decade delay because stupid, crooked, or both.

 

[betstarship]

https://www.motortrend.com/news/elon-musk-tesla-2024-q2-earnings-call-robotaxis-full-self-driving-software/

Quote: "We are already in early discussions with a major OEM about using Tesla FSD," Musk said during the second-quarter earnings call.

On a quick look at Say.com...

I'm sad due to the number of votes on this question. There should be an update about this in Q3 2023 Earnings call tomorrow.