Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

The Limiting Factor´s analysis of Tesla´s lithium supply chain is now available for everyone (limited to Patreon before):

 

[jerry33]

I was thinking the on-board unit would be used for inflating mattresses when camping, or adjusting the tires for off-roading.

If they need a high-volume rig for tradesman work they can plug a pancake compressor into the 120vac outlet.

Edit: I now see there is a Launch is Imminent thread for this kinda talk.

I was thinking about adjusting tire pressures too. A slow volume compressor won't do it--way too slow.

 

[jerry33]

I disagree.

It's not just about selling against EVs, but ICE. Other EVs aren't really impacting Tesla *much* in the US, but ICE vehicle sales have been up and as I said before, EVs are hitting a wall where other manufacturers have lots full of them, if they are even making them at all.

Even if Tesla was the only option, to sell more vehicles and create more demand, they would have lowered prices.

A majority in the US are against EVs for a list of reasons, price is one of them. This is to win those over. The ones who are religiously against EVs won't willingly shift, ever.

You are missing "Dealers don't want BEVs and they will do anything to get their salespeople to switch a BEV buyer to an ICE".

 

[Todd Burch]

Impressive, looks quite similar to older FSD beta.

However, in the thread someone says the XPENG system is based on LIDAR+HD maps, so different approach from Tesla.

The pretty picture is 2% of the challenge. I recall watching this system steer aggressively toward a Jersey wall in a video just a month or two ago.

 

[AnbaricBike]

Interesting how Tesla’s superchargers (or energy business) can be the reason other stocks don’t do well, but it can’t be a positive for TSLA.

Sorry in advance, I believe this is paywalled….

EVgo Gets a Downgrade. Tesla's Chargers Are a Big Reason.

EVgo stock fell 7% in Wednesday trading after a TD Cowen analyst changed his rating on shares to Neutral from Buy.

www.barrons.com

Kempower stock has been dropping like a rock too. Anyone know why? Something going on with NEVI?

Edit: looks like a similar trend for charge point.

ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) Stock Falls Amid Market Uptick: What Investors Need to Know

ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) concluded the recent trading session at $2.77, signifying a -1.07% move from its prior day's close.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Waiting4M3]

Different situation. Cruise/Waymo driverless. Tesla has a driver and the driver is responsible for safe operation of the car. Also note that Cruise is still allowed to operate if they have safety drivers.

San Fran is basically saying "stop clogging up our streets with your cars parking themselves in the middle of intersections."

I was thinking ahead to the eventuality when Tesla will want to apply for a robotaxi license

 

[Todd Burch]

I was thinking ahead to the eventuality when Tesla will want to apply for a robotaxi license

I'm a big Tesla bull, but I think that's still at least several years away.

 

[Words of HABIT]

One day does not make a stock. I did find today's reversal of TSLA, and that of GM and F, quite interesting. Did GM and F investors finally review their latest quarterly financial reports and are cheering that they are getting out of the BEV business, and in turn this supports their thesis that BEVs have demand issues bringing down TSLA in turn? This flavour d'jour will not age well.

 

[Drumheller]

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm a big Tesla bull, but I think that's still at least several years away.

It's hard to predict progress of AI, but I think Tesla needs to stay on top of policy/regulatory stuff even if it's several years away, these kind of things don't change overnight, they need to be prepared to knock down roadblocks way down the road

 

[AndrewZ]

The Limiting Factor´s analysis of Tesla´s lithium supply chain is now available for everyone (limited to Patreon before):

That feeling when spending your leisure time listening to something that is like sitting in a 2hr meeting at work (currently at the largest mine in the world for a specific type of resource)

Super interesting stuff and much of it you likely wouldn't get access to without working in the industry

 

[uscbucsfan]

You are missing "Dealers don't want BEVs and they will do anything to get their salespeople to switch a BEV buyer to an ICE".

I don't think there's any evidence supporting that on a large scale.

 

[MC3OZ]

That feeling when spending your leisure time listening to something that is like sitting in a 2hr meeting at work (currently at the largest mine in the world for a specific type of resource)

Super interesting stuff and much of it you likely wouldn't get access to without working in the industry

This is the long version of the video which he sliced up into 4-5 individual videos.

I have watched the smaller ones, that format is easier to consume unless you want to really dive deep into the topic,

There is some repetition so the smaller videos will add up to more viewing time.

 

[MC3OZ]

Caveat, the original capacity target (20 GWh/ line) was based on all the Battery Day tech. 10 million cells in 4 months for one line with 100Wh/cell = 3GWh/yr * 4 lines = 12 GWh. 100 GWh requires an 8x improvement from current state. 80GWh around 6x.
I'm guessing they won't be updating chemistry in the near term.

View attachment 985193View attachment 985194

Kato road is working on the Gen3 cell which I think might include some chemistry changes.

In the meantime Austin will keep cranking out Gen2 Cybercells as fast as possible,

The fact that they were about to increase yields by 40% is both good and bad news. The good news is progress is being made, the bad news is yields might still not be where they want them.

There is no point in running the lines faster until the yields are fully dialled in, so I would guess that 7X might only be something like 2X at present.

It may take a few more years to get to 7X and they might not have the raw materials for 7X at present.

Is 4680 progress disappointing, or was Elon's original timeframe wildly optimistic? My guess is a bit of both, but problems are not totally unexpected.

Going from 4 lines to 8 lines at Austin might be a recognition that the 7X may only be 3X-4X by the end of 2024.

We have never followed a battery factory ramp closely before, for a ramp with new equipment and a new cell design, I'm not convinced progress to date is atypical.

In 3-4 years time will anyone care what the production rate was today?

It might be a slow hard grind, but where they end up is more important than the timing of any interim milestones.

 

[Skryll]

The Limiting Factor´s analysis of Tesla´s lithium supply chain is now available for everyone (limited to Patreon before):

2 hours lol? What's the TLDW

 

[MP3Mike]

The fact that they were about to increase yields by 40% is both good and bad news. The good news is progress is being made, the bad news is yields might still not be where they want them.

No, they did not increase yields by 40%. From the Q3 call:

Scrap is down 40% quarter over quarter.

That is entirely different than increasing yields 40%. For example, say yield is 92% and scrap is 8%; they increase yield to 95%, while reducing scrap to 5%. That is a ~3% yield increase with a ~40% scrap decrease.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Yeesh, brutal after hours. I wonder what that's all about.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

2 hours lol? What's the TLDW

you can watch it at 2x speed
Jordan. Talks. Very. Slowly.

 

[samppa]

Kempower stock has been dropping like a rock too. Anyone know why? Something going on with NEVI?

Edit: looks like a similar trend for charge point.

ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) Stock Falls Amid Market Uptick: What Investors Need to Know

ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) concluded the recent trading session at $2.77, signifying a -1.07% move from its prior day's close.

finance.yahoo.com

70% of Kempower stock is owned by Kemppi family. So its not a really liquid stock.. also the stock 10x since 2021 ipo so this kind of correction has been expected.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't think there's any evidence supporting that on a large scale.

Where did you look for evidence?