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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
AI is a very hard thing to wrap your head around--especially when we are all so conditioned to the concept of logic-based programming which has dominated computers since their inception.
As long as we keep in mind that neural nets are literally brain simulators, then in theory, if your brain can do it, so can a neural net with enough neurons and enough training data.
The big question that I think you're essentially posing--and you're right, we don't really know yet since it's never been done before--is how much data is needed to cover all these cases? Technically, the car has eyes (cameras) and ears (an in-cabin microphone)--so in theory that's all the sensors needed to drive. It boils down to how much data we need, and how much training.
But what's promising to me is how naturally the car drove in v12. It looked like it drove dramatically better than what I've experienced with v11, and that was without the additional training time and compute resources that Tesla has since brought on. I don't know when we'll hit Robotaxi-level autonomy, but I agree that 2024 will likely be the year that FSD gets good enough that many people will be willing to pay $10k+ for the software...which will be a significant additional contributor to margins. Even without Level 5, a really good FSD system that people want to buy will contribute to the stock price considerably, since margins should go up quite a bit.
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I used to and now Elon gets brought up and I wont defend him. I do spend time every day responding to FUD articles on news aggregators. People ask me why when they are just trolls. I do it because without it people dont see whats real. Yet I refuse to defend Elon antics.
lafrisbee
Active Member
haha. Oh wait?
Does AI have a better understanding of itself than humans do? Or does it just think it does....or doesn't.
Interesting incentive update. But as a spoiled owner of a Model X with lifetime free charging, and not to be ungrateful, but 6 month of supercharging isn't really that great a value, unless:
The owner gets to decide when to start that free 6 months, or-
For more value yet, it could be 6 non-consecutive 30 day periods of free charging, the owner picks the start dates.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Homepage, electric cars selected (for me) with several Teslas.
"New Cars" - straight to Tesla Model 3 and "Electric Vehicles" selected.
Also the same for me in a private window in a different browser.
Same for others?
Presumably this has cost Tesla money - or it's a condition of putting a lot of stock to the website.
Attachments
There's some advertising from Tesla. It would cost Tesla money to sell new cars there, just as it cost to sell used cars.
I'm all for selling more cars!
There’s more to it than learning like a baby.
The system needs to learn to be a baby as well as to learn like a baby—unless the designers simulated the needed neural anatomies of the human brain and, while there are sophisticated computational models of most human brain areas, this is not what Tesla‘s FSD Team is doing to my knowledge.
Organic brains have a lot of structure that evolved over billions of years. Tesla must necessarily be replicating some of what of evolution did in providing organic brains with their capabilities. This is not to say they are using genetic algorithms or the like. It is also not to say they are (or even can be) doing evolution and learning as separate processes or steps. That is, what are learning and evolution in the natural world are combined in FSD adaptation aka learning.
This combined process should be simpler in an artificial computational setting than evolution and learning are in the natural world because organic brains have (more) constraints, e.g. the lifespan of individual organisms and the need to grow a brain to maturity, than are required in the computational setting. Still, the computational demands are far from trivial.
This is why Tesla needs boatloads of compute.
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Mod: I moved a few posts to
teslamotorsclub.com
because they seem to fit better there, and we don't want to clutter the main thread with a discussion that's likely to go off-topic.
--ggr
Russia/Ukraine conflict
Word is, it takes six months training at a minimum. Hopefully there are several dozen Ukrainian pilots training secretly in the West as we speak. F-16s will be needed for their long-term defense, roll out timing aside. It’s been over twice as long since Russia invaded; training should have...
teslamotorsclub.com
--ggr
And it even had a new feature. It has learned to pull over and park on the street at its destination! I think it was probably not explicitly trained to do this but learned the behavior on its own.
V12 will not only drive better, it will have new features that it just learns naturally. I'm hyper-ventilating just thinking about it....
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Cybertruck at Annual Baron Investment Conference (New York) 8K Video
"Premiered 89 minutes agoRecorded at Lincoln Center, New York. There was a Cybertruck, a Model S Plaid, a Model 3 Performance, a Model Y Performance, and a Model X Plaid. May take some time to process up to 8K, be sure to select it too."
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
I can't summarise this easily/well - loads of info "This article is by S.E. Robinson, Jr., please credit accordingly. Have a great day!"
Ron Baron looking at Cybertruck, Tesla Ireland, Australian Megapack site, Japanese "Uber" - 100 Teslas, Big Tesla stores, Gigafactory flyovers, SpaceX, Starlink, xAi, X, Neuralink, The Boring Company, Elon Biopic.
Ron Baron looking at Cybertruck, Tesla Ireland, Australian Megapack site, Japanese "Uber" - 100 Teslas, Big Tesla stores, Gigafactory flyovers, SpaceX, Starlink, xAi, X, Neuralink, The Boring Company, Elon Biopic.
That is what I did a couple of year ago to leverage their SpaceX holdings You may be right that it's time to increase my holdings.
Agreed. Monitored autonomy as opposed to robotaxi will be Tesla’s value driver in the medium term. It’s all profit. It’s easy to scale when the tech is ready. Just offer free trials.
With robotaxi, people underestimate the regulatory, financial, staffing and logistical challenges of putting a couple million robotaxis into service. It will lose money and lots of it for a few years at least.
Thanks for this.
OT - it may be my headache, or my fuzzy brain from getting over COVID, but when I first saw this post, I read the 3rd column Call OI, saw the S from the first column, snd what processed, was “Snake Oil.” I needed a good laugh for the day.. Have a nice weekend.
Do IRA credits for cell manufacture kick in:-
So Austin might be producing more 4680s than Cybertruck can use in the early stages or the ramp, these might be being stockpiled at Austin and might go into vehicles in 2024 when they can gain the IRA cell subsidy?
Most or all of the Gen1 4680s going into the Austin produced Model Y came form Kato Road which has since stopped making those cells.
There could be 3 reasons why Austin is not currently making Model Ys with 4680 at Austin.
I imagine that this could be similar to the new end-of-line building being built at Austin, if you have been watching Austin videos you know that building when up very fast.
So I'm not seeing this as a delay to the Semi. more like an acceleration, perhaps with a few trade-offs like lower production volumes.
When that new building has been constructed a new Semi line has been installed and is ramping, the Semi will use more 2170s and stockpiling 2170s at Sparks may make more sense than shipping them to Austin.
if that is right, Model Ys from Austin might resume using 4680s Q1/Q2 2024, optimistic, but I always use the Elon timeline estimator.
- When the cell is manufactured?
- When a vehicle containing the cell is sold?
So Austin might be producing more 4680s than Cybertruck can use in the early stages or the ramp, these might be being stockpiled at Austin and might go into vehicles in 2024 when they can gain the IRA cell subsidy?
Most or all of the Gen1 4680s going into the Austin produced Model Y came form Kato Road which has since stopped making those cells.
There could be 3 reasons why Austin is not currently making Model Ys with 4680 at Austin.
- 2170 production is just ramping up no need to complicate things, and they don't have the workforce for 2 separate lines.
- 4680s might attract better credits in 2024?
- Semi production can't use many 2170s, Tesla needs to find an interim use for those cells.
I imagine that this could be similar to the new end-of-line building being built at Austin, if you have been watching Austin videos you know that building when up very fast.
So I'm not seeing this as a delay to the Semi. more like an acceleration, perhaps with a few trade-offs like lower production volumes.
When that new building has been constructed a new Semi line has been installed and is ramping, the Semi will use more 2170s and stockpiling 2170s at Sparks may make more sense than shipping them to Austin.
if that is right, Model Ys from Austin might resume using 4680s Q1/Q2 2024, optimistic, but I always use the Elon timeline estimator.
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GhostSkater
Member
Honestly we can't say this for sure, the 4680s V2 in a Model Y would be indistinguishable from a 2170, and we know Tesla retooled the lines a while ago
So there is a chance that now there ones line for 2170s, and another for 4680s and both produces Model Y LR
But Tesla is lacking 2170s right now, this is why the Model 3 LR on US is now using LG cells imported from Asia
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