Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

Tesla made it’s second deal to deliver Superchargers to a third party, this time in Europe:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1723983768950604264

Original article:

EG Group teams up with Tesla for ultra-fast EV charging technology | TheBusinessDesk.com

evpoint was founded in 2021 as part of EG Group’s investments in energy transition with focus on lower carbon vehicular fuels

www.thebusinessdesk.com

Now that charging equipment sales are becoming large, questions are:
1. what are probable margins for sale of adapters through OEM?
2. For non-OEM sales of adapters what are probable margins?
3. Supercharger sales are now growing too; in the announcements for BP and this one there is not much detail about what is to be provided. Is it turnkey installation? Is some kind of processing included? on what basis is the electricity sourced. If in UK/EU Tesla could be the actual provider. Is it to be?

The range of similar questions for OEM NACS is even broader. There AFAIK is no detail provided on any deals thus far.

We have had some speculations here. We need solid evidence on these and other questions, precisely because all this activity probably will be material in 2024, and in some respects may already be material.
A closely related group of questions exists for subscriptions, Supercharger revenue and the Megapack servicing revenue. We cannot forget FSD, Premium Connectivity and the likely evolution of games and entertainment.

Since we already know that Tesla Energy revenues last quarter finally achieved critical mass all these others seem ready to do so in early 2024, accelerating rapidly thereafter.

The problem is quantifying all that. Do any of us know how to approach that series of questions?
For context, as a long-time AAPL shareholder I was amazed to watch the ancillary revenues and margins rise rapidly and keep rising with steady margins. Those have been dubbed the 'ecosystem'. TSLA most definitely is not AAPL, but... NACS and Superchargers clearly are the core competency that nobody else has, lest we forget, NACS happened because Tesla built a standard when there was none and CCS1 has such critical flaws that connector failures alone make both level 3 and level 2 unreliable, if for no other reason that the infernal clip failures. Thus TSLA has become the NA standard setter.

We all know the foregoing. We all know the potential. However, no analyst mentions this (at least none of whom I am aware) and no OEM mentions this, while Tesla certainly is disinclined to clarify the questions.

All these are the huge looming developments on 2024/2025 that are completely 'under the radar' now.
We know how to quantify both the automotive and Core Tesla Energy opportunities and expectations, as well as the major unknowns for each.

We do not for Services. With AAPL people ignored that category while it was growing 'like topsy'. Even now analysts often say iPhone is THE product, despite Services being the glue that promotes cross sales and direct margins. Let us try to avoid that error with TSLA.

Much of the opinion and information on these questions needs a dedicated thread, or more than one. Of course we already have threads on several subsets. Should there be a direct thread for financial quantification of these questions?

While I am very interested in the questions I am acutely aware of my limitations in quantifying these issues.
As such I hope some of us are better equipped to help minimize the unknowns.

 

[lascavarian]

1) It's an event for Cybertruck, not FSD. It's the wrong place for anything more than an FSD announcement, especially given how time consuming it would be to do a bunch of drives a long enough distance to really experience FSD.

Perhaps some demos for journalists would be possible since there may be a few invited.

 

[2daMoon]

All the reasons why Boston Dynamics beats Tesla Optimus... oh, wait, never mind.

A video covering Yahoos inadvertently showcasing the vast chasm between these technologies.

Best line, "Boston Dynamics, the General Motors of robotics"

 

[Usain]

I don't think this is right because:

1) It's an event for Cybertruck, not FSD. It's the wrong place for anything more than an FSD announcement, especially given how time consuming it would be to do a bunch of drives a long enough distance to really experience FSD.

2) The question was about when customers would get to experience FSD 12. I'm sure Elon realized that what he meant by this was when it's going out for first release to select users, not just some people trying it at a delivery event.

Yea, but I'm sure that Elon is hyper-aware that the Cybertruck event is coming in about two weeks. So if he's concerned that FSD V12 would steal some of Cybertruck's thunder he would dictate that a V12 rollout be delayed a bit.

So this tells me Elon is not concerned about it. I think it's very possible that there is some connection between the Cybertruck event and V12.

Of course, all this assumes the "two weeks" tweet was not a joke.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Yea, but I'm sure that Elon is hyper-aware that the Cybertruck event is coming in about two weeks. So if he's concerned that FSD V12 would steal some of Cybertruck's thunder he would dictate that a V12 rollout be delayed a bit.

So this tells me Elon is not concerned about it. I think it's very possible that there is some connection between the Cybertruck event and V12.

Of course, all this assumes the "two weeks" tweet was not a joke.

The more likely thing is that the "two weeks" is the same joke Elon's been using for 3+ years when something is pretty far out.

 

[AndrewZ]

All the reasons why Boston Dynamics beats Tesla Optimus... oh, wait, never mind.

A video covering Yahoos inadvertently showcasing the vast chasm between these technologies.

Best line, "Boston Dynamics, the General Motors of robotics"

This is great to contrast with all the objects we’ve watched Optimus pick up live on a stage

 

[Buckminster]

Now that charging equipment sales are becoming large, questions are:
1. what are probable margins for sale of adapters through OEM?
2. For non-OEM sales of adapters what are probable margins?
3. Supercharger sales are now growing too; in the announcements for BP and this one there is not much detail about what is to be provided. Is it turnkey installation? Is some kind of processing included? on what basis is the electricity sourced. If in UK/EU Tesla could be the actual provider. Is it to be?

The range of similar questions for OEM NACS is even broader. There AFAIK is no detail provided on any deals thus far.

We have had some speculations here. We need solid evidence on these and other questions, precisely because all this activity probably will be material in 2024, and in some respects may already be material.
A closely related group of questions exists for subscriptions, Supercharger revenue and the Megapack servicing revenue. We cannot forget FSD, Premium Connectivity and the likely evolution of games and entertainment.

Since we already know that Tesla Energy revenues last quarter finally achieved critical mass all these others seem ready to do so in early 2024, accelerating rapidly thereafter.

The problem is quantifying all that. Do any of us know how to approach that series of questions?
For context, as a long-time AAPL shareholder I was amazed to watch the ancillary revenues and margins rise rapidly and keep rising with steady margins. Those have been dubbed the 'ecosystem'. TSLA most definitely is not AAPL, but... NACS and Superchargers clearly are the core competency that nobody else has, lest we forget, NACS happened because Tesla built a standard when there was none and CCS2 has such critical flaws that connector failures alone make both level 3and level 2 unreliable, if for no other reason that the infernal clip failures. Thus TSLA has become the NA standard setter.

We all know the foregoing. We all know the potential. However, no analyst mentions this (at least none of whom I am aware) and no OEM mentions this, while Tesla certainly is disinclined to clarify the questions.

All these are the huge looming developments on 2024/2025 that are completely 'under the radar' now.
We know how to quantify both the automotive and Core Tesla Energy opportunities and expectations, as well as the major unknowns for each.

We do not for Services. With AAPL people ignored that category while it was growing 'like topsy'. Even now analysts often say iPhone is THE product, despite Services being the glue that promotes cross sales and direct margins. Let us try to avoid that error with TSLA.

Much of the opinion and information on these questions needs a dedicated thread, or more than one. Of course we already have threads on several subsets. Should there be a direct thread for financial quantification of these questions?

While I am very interested in the questions I am acutely aware of my limitations in quantifying these issues.
As such I hope some of us are better equipped to help minimize the unknowns.

New thread:
Tesla financial projections for individual startups

 

[replicant]

India Weighs Five-Year Tax Cuts on EV Imports to Woo Tesla

India’s trade minister hailed Tesla Inc.’s ties with the South Asian nation during a tour of one of the company’s US plants as the government seeks to woo investment from electric vehicle makers.

www.bloomberg.com

India is considering tax cuts on the imports of completely-built units of electric vehicles, for a period of up to five years, as it tries to entice the likes of Tesla Inc. to sell and eventually make its cars in the country.

The Indian government is working on an electric vehicle policy that would allow international car manufacturers to import battery-powered vehicles on concessional duty rates if they commit to eventually building them in India, people familiar with the matter said.

Tesla’s Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk is likely to meet Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal later this week to discuss the company’s plans to set up a factory in the South Asian nation. Goyal is in San Francisco to attend the ministerial engagements of Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't think this is right because:

1) It's an event for Cybertruck, not FSD

We know from other comments made by Elon in August that FSD Beta v12 is being developed first for HDW3, and that the HDW4 version will lag by at least 6 mths: (Elon wants to get the International versions of FSD running)

Elon Musk on X: "HW4 software will lag HW3 by at least another six months, as our focus needs to be on getting FSD on HW3 working super well and provided internationally." /X (Aug 27, 2023)​

Since Cybertruck will start production with HDW4, there won't be a v12 version running on Cybertruck at the time of the CT delivery event. It'll be FSD v11.4.4 just like all other HDW4 equipped Tesla cars at the moment.

 

[CorneliusXX]

It's genuine, but not as one would imagine.

The question from Omar was "Any guess on when customers might first be able to try out FSD 12?"

And Elon replies: "About 2 weeks"

In other words: at the CT delivery event there will be FSD V12 models (probably HW3 SEXY models) available for test drives (with Tesla drivers).

It's not coming to customer cars yet.

I don't think it's genuine. I think Whole Mars was winding Elon up on timelines and Elon was joking back with the 2 weeks meme.

 

[insaneoctane]

Thus TSLA has become the NA standard setter.

Feels to me like Tesla became the NA standard setter because they offered free access to their wonderful Supercharger network...

 

[2daMoon]

Feels to me like Tesla became the NA standard setter because they offered free access to their wonderful Supercharger network...

... and, what is very likely a less expensive part requiring less footprint offering advantages for vehicle design and COGS considerations.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Note that the 200-day Moving Average currently sits at $221.08

EDIT - 10:50 ET: Yer welcome.

 

[2daMoon]

About FSD V12:

Two weeks, he says, with a smirk on his face
The fans go wild, they can’t wait for the chase
They dream of a car that can drive on its own
No need for a driver, just a smartphone

But every time, they are met with dismay
The FSD is not as good as they say
It still needs attention, it still makes mistakes
It’s not superhuman, it still needs some breaks

They are like Pavlov’s dogs, salivating at the bell
They think they will get food, but they get nothing else
They are conditioned to react, to the promise of a treat
But they are always disappointed, by the reality they meet


Downvote me all you want, but I keep my expectations low. New redesign, new bugs, new behaviour, ....

I'm more interested in how fast the rate of improvement will be when new training data of the fleet will be flooding in.
How good the performance increase will be from FSD v12.1 vs FSD v12 by merely training on more and more clips.

FSD v11.xx has hit a plateau in performance. Let's hope that v12 dramatically lifts this ceiling.

Poetry Police: Okay, looks like we can let you off with a warning this time. Don't make a habit of this or there will be consequences next time. Move along.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't think it's genuine. I think Whole Mars was winding Elon up on timelines and Elon was joking back with the 2 weeks meme.

That's not what happened in Summer 2023 with the v12 Alpha demo.

• Elon told Whole Mars that v12 Alpha is "mind-blowing" - July 27, 2023
• Elon told Teslaconomics he woud live stream FSD Beta V12 "Next week" - Aug 16, 2023
• Elon held a Twitter spaces where he discussed FSD v12 - Aug 25, 2023
• Elon conducted the v12 demo live stream a few hours later - Aug 25, 2023

So 2-4 weeks, Elon thinks in orders of magnitude for estimates. I don't think this is a topic for Elon memes, however.

 

[unk45]

... and, what is very likely a less expensive part requiring less footprint offering advantages for vehicle design and COGS considerations.

First, NACS is more reliable because of absence of a physical clip on CCS-1 which breaks constantly. CCS-2, while still cumbersome, does not have that ridiculous fragile clip.
Second, replace 'very likely' with 'is', please.

 

[elasalle]

So if Tesla has 15-18% of SuC business, it will be in top three. So lots of room for tesla to sell hardware and service contracts to others.
Also if you just buy the Suc, but no backing infrastructure like Megapacks etc you might not be able to compete with rates Tesla offers ... so better get the whole Tesla enchilada ..

 

[Big Time]

So what’s the going estimates for q4 cybertruck deliveries? Ten a day for 30 days?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Thank you Linette for helping to inform the public about how affordable Tesla vehicles have become.

Inverse 'Lopez' effect today

 

[snellenr]

Now that charging equipment sales are becoming large, questions are:

3. Supercharger sales are now growing too; in the announcements for BP and this one there is not much detail about what is to be provided. Is it turnkey installation? Is some kind of processing included? on what basis is the electricity sourced. If in UK/EU Tesla could be the actual provider. Is it to be?

3a. To what extent (and how) will these Tesla-produced, 3rd-party-branded Superchargers be integrated into the navigation and trip planning in Tesla cars?