I’ m confused. You’re hoping for RUD on Cybertruck? Or Lathrop scaling?
This reminds me that an eccentric Quebecois (possibly redundant?) self-labeled The Mad Hungarian, published T-shirts that told the Tesla story. I still have mine, and he's still selling them:
OK, I admit that is a product plug, but...it really does show just how rapidly technology is evolving and the pace of change accelerating. There are countless illustrations of that truth, perhaps none so topical to this thread.
In context, those of us who began a Tesla journey with the original Model S or even before that with The Roadster, understand that the rate of change in Tesla itself is so rapid and fundamental that most observers cannot understand what is happening. Even well-intended people look at the 2012 Model S and the 2023 Model S and thing they're aging and unchanged, stale and obsolescent. They see the Model 3 and Model Y as less old, but unchanging. The Model X is often seen as a quixotic effort at useless innovation. Similarly, MegaPack does not even merit a look.
if there is a singular accomplishment in the Tesla arsenal it is quite perfectly obvious and generally invisible to the initiated in careful analysis. That is manufacturing excellence. It is manufacturing innovation that brought Octovalve, Megacasting and the new paint shops. Even more so, that manufacturing innovation allows rapid iteration in use of semiconductors that permitted use of whatever they could find during the Pandemic. As each iteration comes, so do to logistic innovations, almost never mentioned, that help smooth 'the quarterly wave' and steadily reduce shipping costs through local sourcing, increasing vertical integration and continuing innovation in raw material sourcing and refining (Corpus Christi, for example)
While we excoriate the traditional securities analysts for missing the core reality, many of us find ourselves descending into personality quirks and even see moral conflict rising. It would behoove anybody who seriously questions Tesla's future to reorient consideration to the manufacturing innovation itself.
Perhaps that will help reduce reliance on longer term expectations, from FSD to Optimus and even Cybertruck and the Mexico plant and Robotaxi/'Model 2'. I am not trying to minimize the importance of new products categories. I am suggesting that the TSLA prospers are bright and worthy of high valuation even without those things!
Remember that continuous fundamental manufacturing and materials advances are truly making dramatic improvements in efficiency, permitting positive free cash flow in the midst of major capital expenses including regular investment in new national markets.
Remember too, that I did not mention subscriptions, VPP's nor Supercharger revenues. We all should know that those are already at the cusp of massive growth, with massive new Supercharger expansion to mentioned extensively but obvious to anyone who follows Supercharge.info.
Please, can we concentrate on this sort of issue! the various threads on financial forecasting all will benefit from increased attention to factual progress.
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